Digital Disruption

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Hey, everyone.

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I'm super excited to be sitting down

with Andy Mills, co-founder

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of The New York Times, the daily podcast

and producer of tech podcast.

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Like Rabbit Hole and The Last Invention.

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Andy is a world class storyteller

and has been dedicating his time

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to talking to the greatest minds in AI

so that he can help us better understand

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what the technology is capable of

and where it's going next.

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I want to ask him

which vision of the AI driven future

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he finds most convincing, who he thinks

will be the winners and losers

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and what we need to do to be ready.

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Let's find out.

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I am here with Andy Mills.

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Andy, you're the producer

on The Last Invention podcast.

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And, you know, one of the things that's,

you know, you know as well as I do

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when you're making, an AI podcast

is you hear from all sorts of camps.

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If I can call them that of people

who have completely different views

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for the outlook of of how AI is going

to transform or not transform our society.

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And so I wanted to ask you,

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maybe you can lay out

what are the main camps that you've seen?

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And, you know, based on hearing arguments

across all of those

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where do you see yourself sitting?

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Yeah.

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Well, thanks for having me.

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Thanks for the question.

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My favorite subject

to cover as a journalist is a debate.

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It is something very attractive to me

about trying to understand in good faith

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why intelligent people

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come to such different conclusions

when looking at the same material.

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And I had known

that there was a contingent

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inside

as the world of artificial intelligence

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that was really, really worried about it

for many years.

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Like Eliezer

you'd Kautsky podcast interviews in 2013

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or something is when I first realized

that there was this almost like

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biblical prophet voice out there saying

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that the sci fi movies are kind of true

and we really need to get ready.

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We need to get prepared for this.

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And after ChatGPT blew up,

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I started to increasingly run

into essentially

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the opposite side of that debate,

which are these people who we often call

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the acceleration us to believe

that AGI, this

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artificial general intelligence point

that they believe is coming.

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It could be

the best thing that ever happened to us.

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And so I was attracted right away

to the people who have those strongly

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opposing views inside the same world.

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But the more that I dug into it,

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the more I realized that everyone in the

AI world had different camps.

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So literally

there was like 8 or 9 different ways

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you could categorize the debate

that's happening

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inside the technology world about what

we should do with artificial intelligence.

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And we ended up in the podcast

narrowing them down to

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to three basic camps, the camps

that I think are most influential

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in this conversation in the moment

that we're having camp number one is the,

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you know, AI Duma, essentially

the people who think

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that the risks of the AI race

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as we are conducting that race

today are so great

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and include the fact that we may create

something smarter

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than the smarter than us that ends up

leading to our own extinction.

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They think that that is cause

for so much alarm that we need to stop.

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Think they're trying to get us to stop

right now before we go any further.

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Then on the far end you have the AI.

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Acceleration is to say

that the fears have been overblown,

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that the benefits of this,

and the way that this might help us

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out of the stagnation that we're in,

I mean, some of them will even tell you

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this malaise,

this essentially nihilistic streak

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that's spreading from our politics

to our social media,

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like almost all of that

is going to be positively affected

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by the discovery

and the investment in a true AGI.

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And then there's this camp

that's kind of in the middle,

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but they're not like a medium ground

between the two.

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They're their own place on the map.

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And I call them the scouts.

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And they're the people who think

it's probably too late to stop.

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So the boomers are right to be afraid,

but we're not going to stop.

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And maybe we shouldn't stop

because the acceleration is too right,

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that this could be like fire,

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like electricity, like a true

turning point in human history.

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But they believe that the risks are real.

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And so we need to do everything

we can to get ready for what's coming.

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And that's on the economy.

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What will we do

if the job market starts to fall away?

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If the job market goes away completely,

what should we do with our politics?

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What kind of tests?

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What kind of regulations

should we put in place?

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And they are trying to shout as loud

as they can that we can't wait five years.

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Like we have to start getting ready

right now.

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Journalists, universities, think tanks,

like we need to turn our efforts

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into solving the problems that stand

between now and the creation of this AGI.

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So those are the three main camps

that we talked to.

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Obviously, there are camps like

the skeptics that are out there as well.

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And we are going to follow up with them,

down the road.

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But I just

I think that we're living in a time

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where the skeptics

are not really a forceful shape

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of the conversation

happening closest to the technology.

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I want to come back to

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skeptics in a minute, because I've got

I've got lots to say about the skeptics.

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But before I do, you know, like across the

it sounds a little bit like a spectrum

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where you've got the scouts, you know,

maybe in the middle or more, you know,

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maybe taking aspects of both camps

and having more of a practical lens on it.

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But listening to all these

disparate voices?

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Is that where you see yourself, Andy,

or are you more sort of in the scout camp?

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Or, you know,

if I had to ask you to put your flag down,

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where do you think it would go?

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Well, I am the kind of journalist who,

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like, wants to remove myself to understand

it all better.

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Like I wouldn't be investing so much time

and effort if I didn't

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think all three camps

have earned our attention in our time.

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I think they all have an incredible case

to make, and I want to help people

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find their own place in this debate

and join this debate,

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because I think the time has come

that we join this debate.

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And to do that,

you really have to suspend your own biases

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to help each camp

put their best foot forward.

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But I will say I'm a person, and

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most of my

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personal circle were Dumas.

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They've

some of them have moved into scouts.

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There was definitely an anti acceleration

of bias in my personal circle.

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When I started and that's broken down.

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I find that the acceleration is to do

have a really compelling case.

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And so I think I was a little bit

more Dunmurry Scout at

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let's say maybe April, you know,

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May when I was really diving in deeper

into this.

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But by now, like, I truly can see a world

where all three camps get what they like.

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I can understand the vision of the future,

that all three camps are painting,

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and find all of them compelling enough.

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That, and of course,

all of them know far more about Right.

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technology than I do that

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I just have decided that for now, I'm

keeping a complete, open mind.

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As you know, new information is going to

be coming in over the next several years.

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Right. That, that that's fair.

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And it's interesting to hear

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about your sort of personal shift

maybe coinciding with a societal shift.

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Maybe not.

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But I wanted to touch on this notion

of the anti acceleration test.

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And one of the things you said that

was interesting about the Scout, is that

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you said it, it's how can we

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take action, how can we prepare ourselves

against things like job loss?

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And the reason that caught my attention.

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And tell me if the people

you're speaking to see it differently.

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But what's so interesting

about the notion of job loss

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is you may hear that it as, you know,

kind of a casual listener and say, oh,

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well, that that obviously

sounds like doom or ism,

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but sometimes, like I'm hearing

acceleration, it's talk about job

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loss as well as it's job loss,

but it'll be good job loss.

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It'll be creative disruption

or something like that.

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Where does the economic component of this,

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you know, fall into place

and how much do you find that

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we have to get beyond like what's actually

technologically possible and start

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to look at the broader societal factors,

things like economics, politics, society.

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But to tell you the truth, the

the piece of this that I'm most vested

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in, I'm most interested in at

this point is the existential risk piece.

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The fact that,

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like, highly educated, very experienced,

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usually very sober minded scientists

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are sounding like apocalyptic prophets,

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is interesting

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and trying to dig deep

into what has convinced them,

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especially because many of them were busy

accelerating this technology.

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I mean, in the case of a guy

like Geoffrey Hinton, right, since 1972

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against a, you know, dark, cold

AI, Winter believed

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that he should dedicated his life to this

and now he's telling us

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that it poses an existential risk

to the entire existence of our species.

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That's interesting.

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What's the background?

What's the story there?

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How many people are like him?

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It turns out a lot more than you'd think.

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So the existential piece is the thing

I'm most interested in.

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Obviously, you'll have the biggest impact

if those predictions were to come true,

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but the economic piece,

a lot of them will tell you that

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they talk about that in part

because we can imagine it

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like they think that the

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existential risk piece with

AI is so hard to imagine.

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They themselves

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don't really know how to paint the picture

of what it would look like.

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With the fears of atomic bombs

leading to an existential crisis.

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At least she had a vision of the mushroom

clouds of what it might look like.

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They can't even do that,

but they know that they can

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tap into the reality

of an economic crisis.

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I think many people today

lived through the 2008 financial crisis,

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and in some ways, we are still in

the aftermath of what that did.

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And they're saying the disruption

to the economy

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might not just be more severe than that,

but it would last so much longer

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and possibly would last forever, like

with the Industrial Revolution coming in,

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there were certain jobs that were created,

never existed before certain jobs ended.

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And then the same thing when we came into

the technological revolution, and they

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they think that they can actually get

people's attention

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in the short term risks to the economy

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and then talk to them about, hey,

do you know what the really big risk is?

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And that this thing

might become more intelligent than us

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and a more intelligent

species is rarely controlled

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by the desires and the wishes of a less

intelligent species.

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And I think that they know

that that sounds a little bit batty.

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And so they focus a lot on the economic

piece, because the economic piece,

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not only I think is a good toehold,

but it is obviously a reality.

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And I think that it's coming a lot

faster than we think.

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I know that you recently talked

to, Ed Zittrain.

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Is that his name?

Is that you say his name?

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Yeah.

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It's a trend. That's right.

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Yeah.

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Yeah, he and I, he and I are we

we are looking at this moment

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in artificial intelligence and having such

a different response to it.

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It's fascinating that I believe,

he said, that LMS can't do anything,

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that these current chat bot models

really aren't able to live up to the hype.

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Well, the hype is pretty big,

so I given that there's a lot of hype,

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but this idea that they can't really do

anything, that there's nothing to see

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here, I cannot find any evidence

that that's true

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because businesses

are already interweaving

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this into like the foundational aspects

of their business.

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And this is just the chat bot

where we're at.

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And I think I want to remind people

the chat bot is to the

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AI what the website is to the internet.

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Yes, the like the

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website might not be

that impressive to you,

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but they're not investing all this money

in a better website.

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They're trying to create something

like the internet.

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It's that it's that artificial

intelligence behind the chat bot.

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That is the thing that's so exciting.

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And so when you look today and you see

that, you know, Copilot and ChatGPT

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are still not able to do things that

maybe you were led to believe by

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some of the hype from the product managers

it was going to be able to do by now.

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And so you think nothing to see here.

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The interesting point of view.

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I want to hear Ed out.

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I'm glad he is

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a part of this public conversation,

but I just want to put alongside it

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like all of these people

who are very close to this technology,

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who are worried about this technology,

and they're saying even in its infancy,

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we are weaving it into our economy,

we are weaving it into our businesses.

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And so if the ones who

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are worried about it are right,

it does pose all these risks.

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It's going to become increasingly hard

for us to just unplug it.

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And as it becomes

more and more enmeshed in our economy.

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Back to your question

about the jobs like it's become.

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It's it's it's hard to even imagine

the ways we might come to rely on it

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in the future in a way that, like a jobs

program is just not going to be

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implemented in 2029.

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It's just not going to be prepared

to quickly respond to.

00;13;23;14 - 00;13;24;06

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00;13;51;01 - 00;13;53;11

let's follow the thread again of the,

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you know, what you had said

a little bit earlier, which is that

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the doomsday scenario is in some ways

the most interesting here.

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And, I think your position and yours

is pretty similar to mine,

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which is and Jeffrey Hinton's

a perfect example, but

00;14;07;19 - 00;14;13;19

I, I came into these conversations,

in many cases, ready to dismiss

00;14;13;19 - 00;14;17;22

these people as kooks and just say like,

oh, you're a doomsday cult.

00;14;17;23 - 00;14;20;03

You're, you're you're way out there.

00;14;20;03 - 00;14;23;00

But the the thing that that gave me

the most pause.

00;14;23;00 - 00;14;26;10

the apocalypse crowd,

they got a bad track record.

00;14;26;10 - 00;14;27;21

Right. They For sure.

00;14;28;25 - 00;14;30;12

apocalypse was Yeah.

00;14;30;12 - 00;14;31;11

and they've been wrong.

00;14;31;11 - 00;14;34;22

And I I'll just say personally like I was

raised very religious and it was like

00;14;35;15 - 00;14;39;09

a big part of my upbringing,

believing that a that

00;14;39;11 - 00;14;43;09

like God's apocalypse

would likely happen in my lifetime.

00;14;43;16 - 00;14;46;16

And when I left, that

kind of fundamentalist faith,

00;14;46;26 - 00;14;50;21

I do think I developed an allergy

to anything apocalyptic.

00;14;50;21 - 00;14;51;19

So I think we were coming

00;14;51;19 - 00;14;55;13

from the same position there, which is,

you know, that could be a bad thing,

00;14;55;13 - 00;14;57;11

because if you're looking to be very open

minded,

00;14;57;11 - 00;14;59;24

you want to make sure

you're not too allergic to anything.

00;14;59;24 - 00;15;02;14

If you want to try

and really understand the world.

00;15;02;14 - 00;15;04;04

Well and that's kind of where I was going.

00;15;04;04 - 00;15;05;13

Is it.

00;15;05;13 - 00;15;06;22

It sounds farfetched.

00;15;06;22 - 00;15;09;27

It's completely, as you said, different

from anything that we've heard before.

00;15;10;05 - 00;15;11;22

And yet when you talk to these people,

00;15;11;22 - 00;15;12;13

you know, long enough

00;15;12;13 - 00;15;15;15

as you know you do on your program and,

you know, listeners to this program

00;15;15;21 - 00;15;19;12

have heard before, one of the first things

you come away with, it's like, crap.

00;15;19;12 - 00;15;22;20

They actually do sound like they know

what they're talking about.

00;15;23;00 - 00;15;27;19

And their arguments are resistant to most,

you know,

00;15;27;19 - 00;15;31;20

kind of logical, you know, debates

you can throw at them, right?

00;15;31;20 - 00;15;35;12

Like it's not like this is just like

a, a house of cards or scarecrow argument.

00;15;35;12 - 00;15;37;09

And you say one reasonable thing

and it collapses.

00;15;37;09 - 00;15;40;07

They they've thought this through.

They've lived and breathed this

00;15;40;07 - 00;15;43;01

and they can

they have a response to everything.

00;15;43;01 - 00;15;44;04

And the

00;15;45;04 - 00;15;46;01

the piece I guess that

00;15;46;01 - 00;15;49;20

gave me the most pause is the realization

00;15;49;24 - 00;15;53;14

that when you talk to people

who try to dismiss the rumors,

00;15;54;07 - 00;15;57;16

the best argument

it sounds like we have is,

00;15;58;01 - 00;16;01;13

you know, well, things have worked out

pretty well for us before,

00;16;01;13 - 00;16;03;15

and we'll probably figure it out

right now.

00;16;03;15 - 00;16;05;03

I don't know,

maybe you heard something more credible

00;16;05;03 - 00;16;08;03

than that,

but it's tough to disprove, in my view.

00;16;09;03 - 00;16;12;03

I have two responses that I think one is

00;16;12;05 - 00;16;16;08

I think the dreamers

have become increasingly better

00;16;17;01 - 00;16;20;21

at making their case

of crafting their arguments.

00;16;21;02 - 00;16;24;15

I mean if you've been following this

for a decade like I have, you'll remember

00;16;24;15 - 00;16;29;08

the era of the paperclip maximizer where

that was their go to way of explaining it.

00;16;29;21 - 00;16;35;00

They've, I think, wisely moved on

from that somewhat brilliant

00;16;35;00 - 00;16;38;18

but also somewhat confusing

thought experiment into,

00;16;38;26 - 00;16;43;01

I think, points that are a little easier

for people to grasp,

00;16;43;25 - 00;16;48;06

helping to make the same case

just with an updated set of arguments

00;16;48;06 - 00;16;51;23

and, allegories for people to digest.

00;16;52;04 - 00;16;55;12

I don't think that the acceleration ists

have invested

00;16;55;20 - 00;16;59;09

similarly in trying to hone a great case.

00;16;59;23 - 00;17;04;14

And in some ways that makes sense

because they're winning, right?

00;17;04;14 - 00;17;07;02

They're like,

we are all accelerating right now.

00;17;07;02 - 00;17;10;23

There are no meaningful federal

regulations in place to slow them down.

00;17;11;02 - 00;17;14;23

There are so many billions of dollars

being put in this industry

00;17;14;28 - 00;17;18;15

that if they stopped tomorrow,

it would probably cause

00;17;18;15 - 00;17;22;11

a global financial collapse

like we've not seen in our lifetimes.

00;17;22;28 - 00;17;26;26

And they're racing one another

like like Altman and,

00;17;27;14 - 00;17;32;23

you know, Hassabis and Musk

and you know Dario Amadi.

00;17;32;29 - 00;17;37;06

They get these

brilliant people are competing not just

00;17;37;06 - 00;17;41;00

against the clock and not just for,

you know, better products.

00;17;41;00 - 00;17;43;05

They're competing against each other

to try

00;17;43;05 - 00;17;46;13

and be the first to get to this moment of,

you know, AGI.

00;17;47;01 - 00;17;51;07

And I don't think it's top of mind to them

to come on to a podcast

00;17;51;07 - 00;17;55;14

and try and really make the case for why

the rumors are wrong and they're right.

00;17;55;22 - 00;18;00;13

And I think that if we start to see

the boomers get more ground, like,

00;18;00;19 - 00;18;03;29

you know, laser

you'd Kautsky innate stories, their book

00;18;04;18 - 00;18;07;11

if anyone builds it, everyone dies.

00;18;07;11 - 00;18;08;14

Very catchy name.

00;18;08;14 - 00;18;09;26

It made its way onto the New York Times

00;18;09;26 - 00;18;12;26

bestsellers list like it's

starting to find an audience.

00;18;12;26 - 00;18;16;07

You see more lawmakers

who are getting vocal

00;18;16;07 - 00;18;19;21

about the risks, and that's happening

both on the left and the right.

00;18;19;21 - 00;18;24;18

You're having interesting media figures,

as, as as vast as like,

00;18;24;27 - 00;18;29;19

Steve Bannon, who's really concerned

about the existential risk.

00;18;29;26 - 00;18;31;15

And then you have Megan McCart.

00;18;31;15 - 00;18;33;18

Hang on, what's the princess's name?

00;18;34;26 - 00;18;38;14

I always forget, Markle Meghan Markle.

00;18;38;19 - 00;18;39;04

Yeah.

00;18;39;04 - 00;18;42;14

the, columnist for The Washington Post.

00;18;42;14 - 00;18;46;04

I really gave her a, promotion there

Yeah.

00;18;46;29 - 00;18;48;22

to Princess, Duchess. Yeah.

00;18;48;22 - 00;18;53;02

across across this wide range of,

like, people's

00;18;53;09 - 00;18;57;23

politics, like, this issue has not yet

become politically polarized.

00;18;57;24 - 00;19;00;06

It's not that they're acceleration is

they're right wingers.

00;19;00;06 - 00;19;05;14

And, you know, safety ists are in in

Dumas are are on the left.

00;19;05;26 - 00;19;09;17

this issue is like it's it's

still in its infancy in the public debate.

00;19;09;25 - 00;19;12;20

And I think that if we start to see

00;19;12;20 - 00;19;16;00

the Dumas get more and more purchase,

I think at that point we're going to start

00;19;16;22 - 00;19;19;00

a better case

being made for the accelerations.

00;19;19;00 - 00;19;21;04

So that's like thing one thing to

00;19;21;04 - 00;19;24;13

I think that the best

case of the acceleration ists are making.

00;19;25;01 - 00;19;28;24

Personally, it does come down to this idea

00;19;29;10 - 00;19;32;05

that we have become increasingly

00;19;32;05 - 00;19;35;14

safety oriented as a society.

00;19;35;14 - 00;19;38;07

This is something

you hear a lot from Peter Thiel.

00;19;38;07 - 00;19;40;25

And like no matter

what people think of Peter Thiel,

00;19;40;25 - 00;19;44;05

he clearly has

had a massive influence on the world.

00;19;44;11 - 00;19;49;09

He was an early investor in all these

companies, and DeepMind and OpenAI.

00;19;49;10 - 00;19;52;16

He was even if you're an AI boomer,

he was an early investor

00;19;52;16 - 00;19;57;03

in the Singularity Institute

and in, Eliezer, you'd Kautsky,

00;19;57;04 - 00;20;01;20

who is like the king of the doomsday

fear, teams all over this conversation.

00;20;01;28 - 00;20;05;04

And he's been making,

I think, a very persuasive case to people

00;20;05;12 - 00;20;10;05

that with this safety mindset

that has overcome our culture,

00;20;10;12 - 00;20;13;26

ranging from how we parent to how we,

00;20;14;07 - 00;20;17;20

invest in new technologies

as like a government,

00;20;17;29 - 00;20;22;05

that this safety mindset

has created a stagnation

00;20;22;16 - 00;20;27;08

that is threatening our politics,

that is threatening our sense of purpose,

00;20;27;17 - 00;20;31;02

and that we feel in all of these

like abstract ways, like when

00;20;31;02 - 00;20;32;15

you go to New York City

00;20;33;19 - 00;20;36;19

and then

you go like go, go, go to a Japanese city

00;20;36;25 - 00;20;39;26

and you're just thinking,

how do we have more money in New York?

00;20;40;07 - 00;20;44;08

And as much as I love New York,

lived there for many years, but it's it's

00;20;44;08 - 00;20;49;00

incredible how little progress

has been made in decades

00;20;49;07 - 00;20;52;22

when it comes to almost anything

a New Yorker would want to invest in.

00;20;52;28 - 00;20;56;13

And then you just wonder,

why are we so stagnant?

00;20;56;13 - 00;20;58;13

Where, where where's the flying cars?

00;20;58;13 - 00;21;01;07

Like a shorthand for this.

00;21;01;07 - 00;21;04;07

And I and I do think that

if we bring that safety

00;21;04;10 - 00;21;07;10

mindset too much into the AI world,

00;21;07;25 - 00;21;10;26

I think they do have a point

that with some ways,

00;21;11;07 - 00;21;14;22

allowing ourselves

to be ruled by our fears instead of

00;21;14;22 - 00;21;18;19

by our desires to to truly reach for more,

to believe in something,

00;21;18;24 - 00;21;21;25

to believe that the world can be different

and better than it is today.

00;21;22;12 - 00;21;25;09

I don't think that they make the pitch

quite as,

00;21;25;09 - 00;21;28;19

with the tone of inspiration

as I'm hitting it with here, but I feel it

00;21;28;19 - 00;21;33;13

sometimes I, I can picture

a world that they're imagining where,

00;21;34;04 - 00;21;38;15

you know, like one of the accelerations

I spoke to you happens to be a socialist.

00;21;38;22 - 00;21;42;09

Acceleration is because, like I said,

there's a large spectrum of different

00;21;42;09 - 00;21;45;08

political beliefs

inside of each one of these camps.

00;21;45;12 - 00;21;49;10

And one of the reasons that

that he was so passionate about us

00;21;49;10 - 00;21;53;11

getting to AGI and us really investing

in this technology is he was saying, like,

00;21;53;11 - 00;21;56;26

think about the millions

and millions of people

00;21;56;26 - 00;22;01;09

since the Industrial revolution

who have had to do shit jobs,

00;22;02;10 - 00;22;05;16

that someone has to

do, that our society has set up in a way

00;22;05;21 - 00;22;09;20

where someone has to do this, and in fact,

a lot of someone's

00;22;09;29 - 00;22;13;08

have to dig in these mines

and they have to clean these toilets,

00;22;13;08 - 00;22;17;24

and they have to do these repetitive

factory jobs that if we literally came up

00;22;18;00 - 00;22;21;12

with a technology

that did that work for them,

00;22;21;12 - 00;22;25;07

it would possibly be like

the most powerful, liberating force

00;22;26;01 - 00;22;29;21

for like the betterment of humanity

in human history.

00;22;29;29 - 00;22;31;17

And he's like, that is worth it.

00;22;31;17 - 00;22;34;10

Not because of some abstract thing

that you want one day,

00;22;34;10 - 00;22;37;08

but because of the people

who are living these like

00;22;37;08 - 00;22;41;15

and somewhat living in these toilsome,

miserable conditions right now.

00;22;41;24 - 00;22;44;17

And that oh, but we don't know

what they would do on the other side.

00;22;44;17 - 00;22;49;07

And we we don't know how we would organize

our society in accelerations like that.

00;22;49;07 - 00;22;50;13

This guy's name is Alex Williams.

00;22;50;13 - 00;22;55;08

What he was saying is that, like those

problems, we should solve down the road

00;22;55;08 - 00;22;58;21

after dealing with the actual problem

that we have right now?

00;22;59;03 - 00;23;01;26

And I find that to be quite,

quite persuasive as well.

00;23;01;26 - 00;23;03;23

But I know it's early in the debate,

00;23;03;23 - 00;23;07;15

and I think that over the next

couple of years, especially if I continues

00;23;07;15 - 00;23;11;08

to get this massive amount of investment,

if they continue to see the incremental

00;23;11;08 - 00;23;14;29

or maybe even the exponential growth

that they're hoping for.

00;23;15;03 - 00;23;19;11

I think this is going to be the debate,

increasingly happening

00;23;19;17 - 00;23;22;23

not just in our political spheres,

but like around

00;23;22;23 - 00;23;26;07

people's dinner

tables, friends out, for a drink.

00;23;26;17 - 00;23;28;15

And like the reason

that we put this podcast together

00;23;28;15 - 00;23;30;02

and the reason we're putting it out now

00;23;30;02 - 00;23;34;01

is that we feel like

it's kind of it's time to get to 101.

00;23;34;01 - 00;23;37;01

It's time to get an introduction to where,

00;23;37;01 - 00;23;39;08

we're at right now, how we got here

00;23;39;08 - 00;23;43;02

and, like, what the three

major camps believe we should do next.

00;23;44;08 - 00;23;45;09

So let's

00;23;45;09 - 00;23;48;20

in the spirit of of the 101

and just kind of unpacking some of this

00;23;48;20 - 00;23;51;04

and and and by the way for what it's worth

you know

00;23;51;04 - 00;23;55;03

I'm a, I'm a listener to your podcast

and I think it's a really nice kind of

00;23;55;03 - 00;23;57;29

you know, overview of that piece

where I wanted to go though, as we,

00;23;57;29 - 00;24;00;18

you know, we talked about acceleration

as it's winning.

00;24;00;18 - 00;24;01;00

Winning.

00;24;01;00 - 00;24;05;01

We talked about getting more,

you know, winning technologically

00;24;05;01 - 00;24;06;12

but also winning financially.

00;24;06;12 - 00;24;07;23

I guess you could say right now

00;24;07;23 - 00;24;10;11

because they're getting more investment

in these technologies.

00;24;10;11 - 00;24;13;19

But one of the pieces

that's interesting to me is,

00;24;14;10 - 00;24;18;09

I guess, the personalities behind

some of these different technologies

00;24;18;09 - 00;24;22;16

and the fact that you've got,

you know, a series of different

00;24;23;22 - 00;24;24;28

tech stacks here of

00;24;24;28 - 00;24;30;17

different, you know, AI products

with people who I mean, you could draw

00;24;30;17 - 00;24;33;17

a pretty interesting diagram

of how these people have intersected.

00;24;33;17 - 00;24;37;21

And, you know, the the drama in their

lives is like borderline Game of Thrones.

00;24;38;04 - 00;24;41;04

But but I mean, for the the uninformed,

00;24;41;14 - 00;24;44;14

how would you classify the the main,

00;24;45;10 - 00;24;49;26

the main I products here

and kind of the people behind them.

00;24;50;06 - 00;24;51;27

If that's not too broad a question.

00;24;51;27 - 00;24;53;25

Well let me,

let me try and give an answer.

00;24;53;25 - 00;24;55;01

You tell me

if that's what you're going for.

00;24;55;01 - 00;24;59;04

I mean the number one thing

that we start off the show and that

00;24;59;06 - 00;25;03;08

I start off most of these conversations,

trying, trying to,

00;25;03;10 - 00;25;06;25

to distinguish between is just like,

what is it

00;25;07;15 - 00;25;12;25

that open AI or anthropic or DeepMind,

00;25;12;25 - 00;25;18;08

what is it that they think they're making

when they ask investors to invest in AI?

00;25;18;21 - 00;25;21;24

And it's not a product,

it's not a chat bot.

00;25;22;03 - 00;25;27;17

When Demis Hassabis and Shane Legg,

fresh out of getting their PhDs

00;25;27;17 - 00;25;30;19

in neuroscience, come to Silicon

00;25;30;19 - 00;25;33;19

Valley in 2010 looking for investors,

00;25;33;27 - 00;25;38;11

a part of their pitch was

we don't want to make a tech product.

00;25;38;23 - 00;25;42;05

We want to make artificial general

intelligence

00;25;42;23 - 00;25;47;00

the complete automation of anything

00;25;47;19 - 00;25;50;02

that the human mind can imagine.

00;25;50;02 - 00;25;53;24

And then beyond,

like they want to make a new.

00;25;54;04 - 00;25;57;19

Species

is the way that a lot of the sources

00;25;57;19 - 00;25;58;13

that I've talked to say,

00;25;58;13 - 00;26;02;14

it's like it's a better shorthand to say

they're trying to create an intelligent

00;26;02;14 - 00;26;07;04

new species than it is to say they're

trying to make something like a chat bot.

00;26;07;08 - 00;26;09;20

So that's the important thing

to distinguish.

00;26;09;20 - 00;26;13;27

And that dream has been alive

under different names.

00;26;14;12 - 00;26;17;18

Right now

we call it AGI, but thinking machine

00;26;17;18 - 00;26;21;20

or artificial intelligence

or automaton, it's had different names.

00;26;21;29 - 00;26;26;29

It goes all the way back to the 1940s,

and it goes back to Alan Turing,

00;26;27;04 - 00;26;30;28

one of the late godfathers

of computer science, as he's often called.

00;26;31;08 - 00;26;35;24

He's sitting there in the 40s

looking at one of those massive computers

00;26;35;24 - 00;26;39;01

with the tubes sticking out of it

that was the size of a room.

00;26;39;01 - 00;26;41;02

I think it weighed like two and a half

tons.

00;26;41;02 - 00;26;44;07

He, already

seeing what this computer was able to do,

00;26;44;19 - 00;26;49;20

was envisioning a day

when it could think as well as a human

00;26;50;09 - 00;26;54;00

and thought that when that happened,

it would probably take over.

00;26;54;18 - 00;26;55;02

Right.

00;26;55;02 - 00;26;56;15

And it is.

00;26;56;15 - 00;26;58;21

It attracts

these really interesting figures

00;26;58;21 - 00;27;02;24

who are not only attract,

not only have this belief

00;27;03;11 - 00;27;06;06

that the computers, even the computers

we have today,

00;27;06;06 - 00;27;09;21

they can be so dumb sometimes, you know,

they can be so frustratingly dumb.

00;27;09;21 - 00;27;13;09

And to think that for all these years

there have been a group of true believers

00;27;14;00 - 00;27;17;00

who think that we can achieve

that level, that level of automation.

00;27;17;12 - 00;27;20;03

And, you know, in the podcast,

we go through all the ups and downs

00;27;20;03 - 00;27;22;18

where like in the 1960s,

they really thought that they were close

00;27;22;18 - 00;27;26;00

and they sounded a lot

like people sound today thinking that

00;27;26;00 - 00;27;29;23

we were ten years away from a true AGI

thinking machine.

00;27;29;23 - 00;27;31;25

Right. And obviously that didn't happen.

00;27;31;25 - 00;27;37;09

But in the modern telling of like where

we're at and who these characters are,

00;27;38;08 - 00;27;40;06

I think the important thing to know

is that

00;27;40;06 - 00;27;44;16

the most influential voices

inside of the current

00;27;44;16 - 00;27;47;16

AI conversation,

the most influential tech leaders,

00;27;47;29 - 00;27;52;14

almost all of them are the underdogs

ten years ago

00;27;53;03 - 00;27;57;00

that they were not the people

who were at the forefront

00;27;57;00 - 00;28;00;03

of Silicon Valley

when it came to new technology.

00;28;01;06 - 00;28;05;12

In fact, the people who are leading

the charge, leading the race in the US

00;28;05;12 - 00;28;09;04

right now, they were the ones

who were the most freaked out.

00;28;09;15 - 00;28;11;26

Ten years ago,

00;28;11;26 - 00;28;14;01

Dario Ahmadi,

00;28;14;01 - 00;28;17;24

Sam Altman, Elon Musk,

you know, Demis Hassabis.

00;28;17;24 - 00;28;18;21

The list could go on.

00;28;18;21 - 00;28;23;00

All these top players, you could find that

they were investing, you know,

00;28;23;00 - 00;28;26;23

millions of dollars into AI safety,

that they were lobbying Congress.

00;28;26;24 - 00;28;31;02

Elon Musk had a personal meeting

with President Obama in 2015.

00;28;31;08 - 00;28;34;13

Go back and look at Sam

Altman's blog in 2015.

00;28;34;19 - 00;28;36;11

They're saying over and over again,

00;28;36;11 - 00;28;40;07

this thing poses

the greatest existential risk to humanity.

00;28;40;17 - 00;28;42;29

Like it may lead to our extinction.

00;28;42;29 - 00;28;45;29

It may come to see us

the way that we see docs.

00;28;46;05 - 00;28;48;16

Some people say the way that we see ants,

00;28;48;16 - 00;28;51;23

and those people are now

at the forefront of the race.

00;28;51;23 - 00;28;52;03

Right?

00;28;52;03 - 00;28;55;02

They signed a petition

saying we should do everything we can

00;28;55;09 - 00;28;58;16

to make sure there's no AI race,

and now they're at the head of the race.

00;28;58;24 - 00;29;02;21

And I think that the cynics

in the critics of these people

00;29;03;03 - 00;29;06;01

are assuming that what happened is greed,

00;29;06;01 - 00;29;09;19

that what happened is that dumber

ism was bad for business.

00;29;09;19 - 00;29;12;13

And so they just pushed the Duma

ism to the side.

00;29;12;13 - 00;29;15;19

And I think one of the most fascinating

aspects of this story

00;29;16;07 - 00;29;18;23

is that it's way more interesting to that.

00;29;18;23 - 00;29;21;20

What happened

is that they came one after another

00;29;21;20 - 00;29;26;29

to believe that someone, somewhere,

was going to make this technology,

00;29;26;29 - 00;29;29;29

that AGI would be created,

00;29;29;29 - 00;29;34;04

and that the best thing that they could do

for the future of humanity

00;29;34;13 - 00;29;37;22

is make sure that they were

the ones who made it first,

00;29;38;06 - 00;29;42;29

that they because they care about safety,

because they care about democracy,

00;29;43;04 - 00;29;48;18

because they care about,

you know, things like, privacy rights,

00;29;48;25 - 00;29;53;13

that if they made the AGI,

they could use it for good

00;29;53;25 - 00;29;57;10

before a China, before,

you know, if you're Sam Altman and Elon

00;29;57;10 - 00;29;58;28

Musk, you know, before Google, right?

00;29;58;28 - 00;30;01;04

If you're dim as a sub,

as you know, before Musk. Right.

00;30;01;04 - 00;30;05;02

They came just to believe that like the

the acceleration

00;30;05;19 - 00;30;08;19

is not just a convenient

00;30;09;00 - 00;30;11;25

sales pitch,

but they sincerely seem to believe

00;30;11;25 - 00;30;15;14

that acceleration

is salvation, that acceleration

00;30;16;17 - 00;30;17;21

is a duty

00;30;17;21 - 00;30;20;20

that they

have on behalf of the human race.

00;30;20;21 - 00;30;23;02

And that's a good story.

It's a fascinating story.

00;30;23;02 - 00;30;26;27

Whether or not you believe it

is, I'm not sure I believe it,

00;30;27;06 - 00;30;31;13

but it's important to understand that

that's happening and then to understand

00;30;31;13 - 00;30;34;29

that our entire economy, not our tire,

but a huge part of our economy

00;30;34;29 - 00;30;38;19

and a large part of our stock market,

we're all riding on that conversion,

00;30;39;06 - 00;30;42;14

you know,

and we've yet to engage in a big,

00;30;42;14 - 00;30;46;04

robust public debate about whether or not

this is the right path.

00;30;46;15 - 00;30;48;21

And we're already so far down it.

00;30;48;21 - 00;30;50;06

I think that that's that's

00;30;50;06 - 00;30;54;06

I think, if you ask like the characters,

like that's the spectrum.

00;30;54;06 - 00;30;57;06

You've got Alan

Turing all the way up to these guys.

00;30;57;10 - 00;30;58;15

And then in the middle of it,

00;30;58;15 - 00;31;02;04

I guess the other characters

that I really love are the contrarians,

00;31;02;28 - 00;31;06;21

which I think naturally, this subject

would attract some contrarians,

00;31;07;04 - 00;31;10;26

but one of my favorite things

I learned putting the series together

00;31;11;04 - 00;31;16;17

was that there were two camps in the

earliest days of artificial intelligence

00;31;16;17 - 00;31;21;27

about how you would go about making a true

thinking machine in the dominant camp.

00;31;22;13 - 00;31;25;21

They were, you know,

the Symbolists went on to get into

00;31;25;21 - 00;31;27;23

all the technical details

of what they were,

00;31;27;23 - 00;31;32;12

but they're the guys that made

that chess player that beat Kasparov.

00;31;32;12 - 00;31;35;21

They they're the ones who made that

jeopardy player that won jeopardy!

00;31;35;21 - 00;31;39;17

Like they were the ones who were seen

as like the future of AI for so long.

00;31;40;12 - 00;31;44;03

And then the underdogs,

the contrarians were these connectionist.

00;31;44;11 - 00;31;49;10

These are people who for decades believed

in their vision for how to make an AI.

00;31;49;26 - 00;31;54;06

And they

I did not realize just how disrespected

00;31;54;12 - 00;31;58;09

they were inside of their own field,

how they were completely

00;31;58;23 - 00;32;02;29

just like, just

how far they were pushed to the sidelines,

00;32;03;13 - 00;32;07;10

and then how quickly their theories

00;32;07;21 - 00;32;13;21

became the engine behind this

AI revolution that we're going through.

00;32;14;08 - 00;32;17;20

And then immediately,

these guys who had dedicated their lives

00;32;17;20 - 00;32;21;14

to this contrarian view,

it's like moments after they're winning

00;32;21;14 - 00;32;24;21

their Nobel Prize, you know, moments

after they're winning their Turing Awards,

00;32;24;29 - 00;32;28;26

they then quit their jobs

and come talk to people like me to say,

00;32;29;13 - 00;32;31;03

we got to stop this thing.

00;32;31;03 - 00;32;32;26

It might kill us all.

00;32;32;26 - 00;32;38;07

So that's a spectrum of the personalities

and the characters that, are like

00;32;38;07 - 00;32;41;15

funneling the thing behind your,

you know, ChatGPT

00;32;42;03 - 00;32;45;23

and filing the,

you know, engine of progress

00;32;45;23 - 00;32;48;23

or engine of profit

or however you want to say

00;32;48;25 - 00;32;52;18

whatever you stand on the positions like,

those are the guys that are,

00;32;53;12 - 00;32;56;04

like behind this

00;32;56;04 - 00;33;00;16

AI idea

that's become so central to our society.

00;33;01;05 - 00;33;01;22

that's great idea.

00;33;01;22 - 00;33;05;18

That's that's exactly where I wanted

to kind of take the conversation and I, I,

00;33;05;18 - 00;33;08;18

you know, I had a very similar reaction

to you when I heard

00;33;09;04 - 00;33;13;15

about all these different personalities

you are all competing to,

00;33;13;16 - 00;33;18;08

you know, be the first to, you know,

make this artificial general intelligence.

00;33;18;08 - 00;33;22;12

And I mean, the way I characterized it,

and I like the first thought

00;33;22;12 - 00;33;25;12

that came to my mind, and I don't know

if you're a mad men guy, but.

00;33;25;19 - 00;33;26;16

Yeah.

00;33;26;16 - 00;33;30;06

So maybe the most famous scene

in the show, it's in the first episode,

00;33;30;13 - 00;33;34;09

but basically they're coming up

with these, this ad for Cigarets.

00;33;34;09 - 00;33;34;18

Right.

00;33;34;18 - 00;33;38;18

And, and the gist of it is that everybody

else's cigarets will kill you.

00;33;39;02 - 00;33;41;00

Ours are toasted, right?

00;33;41;00 - 00;33;42;16

Like it's toasted.

00;33;42;16 - 00;33;44;01

It's toasted. Lucky strike.

00;33;44;01 - 00;33;48;00

And to me, like that seems to be the pitch

of every single AI leader right now.

00;33;48;00 - 00;33;50;03

Everybody else is. I will kill you.

00;33;50;03 - 00;33;51;28

Our AI is toasted, right?

00;33;51;28 - 00;33;53;21

Like like, do you buy that?

00;33;53;21 - 00;33;56;16

And within that argument,

does it matter who wins?

00;33;56;16 - 00;33;57;05

Is the question.

00;33;57;05 - 00;33;59;24

I'm getting on. Well,

I think this is like, there's.

00;33;59;24 - 00;34;01;00

maybe I'm too gullible.

00;34;01;00 - 00;34;04;28

I mean, I, I covered politics largely,

00;34;05;12 - 00;34;08;22

before this have been

deep in the world of, like,

00;34;09;27 - 00;34;11;12

what is

00;34;11;12 - 00;34;13;29

causing this deep divide

in our politics today.

00;34;13;29 - 00;34;15;18

And what role does technology play?

00;34;15;18 - 00;34;19;21

What role does, you know,

the lack of having other strong markers

00;34;19;21 - 00;34;27;16

of meaning in our lives and all this

and I'm of the persuasion to take people

00;34;27;16 - 00;34;31;08

at their word when their actions

seem to back up their word.

00;34;32;17 - 00;34;36;06

And whether that's you know,

why a lifelong Democrat in Pennsylvania

00;34;36;06 - 00;34;40;29

decides to vote Republican for Donald

Trump, or whether that's a technologist

00;34;41;05 - 00;34;45;21

who seems to sincerely believe

that the thing he's making

00;34;46;05 - 00;34;47;16

could end the human race.

00;34;47;16 - 00;34;49;14

And if he doesn't make it

00;34;49;14 - 00;34;51;22

before someone else

does, it's more likely to do so.

00;34;51;22 - 00;34;52;15

I don't.

00;34;52;15 - 00;34;55;14

I personally, I don't think it's toasted.

00;34;55;14 - 00;34;58;21

they seem to sincerely

believe it to the point where

00;34;58;21 - 00;35;02;14

if you're going to criticize it, it's

I think it's better to criticize it

00;35;02;14 - 00;35;06;08

the way you would criticize

maybe, a believer in a religion

00;35;06;26 - 00;35;10;11

which, like you can criticize

someone for their religious beliefs,

00;35;10;11 - 00;35;13;15

but if you start off with the assumption

that they cynically hold them,

00;35;13;15 - 00;35;16;10

but behind closed doors,

they're not really holding them.

00;35;16;10 - 00;35;17;28

I don't think that that puts you

on the right footing.

00;35;17;28 - 00;35;20;21

Now. There are a lot of skeptics

who are out there,

00;35;20;21 - 00;35;23;21

and even some acceleration ists

will say this about the AI Dumars,

00;35;23;27 - 00;35;29;04

that it is marketing,

that if you tell people my butt, it's

00;35;29;04 - 00;35;32;23

almost the opposite of what you're saying

with the criticism they often get is

00;35;33;03 - 00;35;38;08

if you go out there and say,

like my thing, I'm making my technology

00;35;38;08 - 00;35;42;29

I'm making is so awesome,

it might destroy the earth.

00;35;43;04 - 00;35;46;22

That's a way of saying what

I do is important and you know what?

00;35;47;01 - 00;35;48;25

It might get rid of all jobs.

00;35;48;25 - 00;35;49;19

And that's a way of saying

00;35;49;19 - 00;35;53;22

invest money in me because, you know,

you put that money in like U.P.S.

00;35;53;22 - 00;35;55;26

or something that that's a

that's a failing business.

00;35;55;26 - 00;35;57;19

We're going to have robots doing all that.

00;35;57;19 - 00;36;00;11

And you know that

think that point is out there.

00;36;00;11 - 00;36;05;25

But when I talk to like former OpenAI

employees, they are they are telling me

00;36;05;25 - 00;36;10;10

that this is the conversation that they're

having in the cafeteria over lunch.

00;36;10;10 - 00;36;12;05

Like,

this is what they talk about on Friday

00;36;12;05 - 00;36;16;01

night, happy hours when they go out,

like the people that are openly saying,

00;36;16;08 - 00;36;20;08

Holy shit, I hope we don't make something

that destroys the world.

00;36;20;18 - 00;36;25;04

So I, I don't think that it's quite

the same thing as what you're saying.

00;36;25;04 - 00;36;26;21

I do think that it's going to change.

00;36;26;21 - 00;36;29;21

And, you know, I think that it's dynamic.

00;36;30;02 - 00;36;32;23

When Sam Altman in 2023

00;36;33;25 - 00;36;36;15

went to testify before Congress,

00;36;36;15 - 00;36;40;10

right in the aftermath

of the massive explosion of chat bots.

00;36;40;10 - 00;36;43;06

So ChatGPT comes out in November of 2022.

00;36;43;06 - 00;36;47;09

It's followed by all these copycats, and

everybody wants to get into the chat bot

00;36;47;09 - 00;36;51;03

game, and a lot of weird hallucinations

and crazy things are going on.

00;36;51;22 - 00;36;54;16

Congress

calls Sam Altman and others to come in

00;36;54;16 - 00;36;58;04

and testify about what's going on

with AI and it's incredible.

00;36;58;04 - 00;37;00;05

It's maybe the most incredible

congressional hearing

00;37;00;05 - 00;37;03;20

I've ever seen

because he's up there saying, regulate us.

00;37;04;01 - 00;37;07;07

Our greatest fear is

we might break the world.

00;37;07;13 - 00;37;10;13

We want you to regulate us.

00;37;10;14 - 00;37;12;06

And yet

00;37;12;06 - 00;37;13;16

they never did.

00;37;13;16 - 00;37;17;02

But it's a weird thing to ask

for your industry,

00;37;17;02 - 00;37;20;02

for your company,

for you personally to be regulated.

00;37;21;00 - 00;37;23;00

And then everyone else is like,

yeah, we should.

00;37;23;00 - 00;37;24;09

And they never did.

00;37;24;09 - 00;37;27;09

You know, fast forward to May of 2025.

00;37;27;14 - 00;37;30;14

He's brought in to testify

in front of Congress,

00;37;30;15 - 00;37;35;20

and almost the entire hearing is about,

how do we help you beat China?

00;37;35;29 - 00;37;37;29

How do we ensure that the U.S.

00;37;37;29 - 00;37;39;11

remains at the forefront of this?

00;37;40;11 - 00;37;41;05

That's an interesting

00;37;41;05 - 00;37;44;19

change that's happened, and I could see it

continuing to change again,

00;37;45;09 - 00;37;49;18

and change back and forth and continue

to change directions.

00;37;49;18 - 00;37;51;07

And I think as it change

00;37;51;07 - 00;37;54;11

changes, you're going to hear changes

coming from these companies.

00;37;54;11 - 00;37;56;19

And we could get to, it's toasted.

00;37;56;19 - 00;38;00;18

You know, Z, what Elon Musk is doing,

it's going to kill the world.

00;38;00;25 - 00;38;04;13

But me, what we're doing, it's

going to ensure civilization.

00;38;04;13 - 00;38;07;02

But I think at this moment

00;38;07;02 - 00;38;08;01

they're not really there.

00;38;08;01 - 00;38;12;00

And in fact, I'm kind of surprised

that they're not a little bit more open,

00;38;13;04 - 00;38;18;01

openly competitive,

like Pepsi and Coke or T.

00;38;18;01 - 00;38;21;13

I think maybe the our generation,

it's like T-Mobile and AT&T.

00;38;21;13 - 00;38;22;18

Like I watch football,

00;38;22;18 - 00;38;25;03

they go hard

after each other in those ads,

00;38;25;03 - 00;38;28;20

like literally making fun of each other's

ads in the ads because they're competing

00;38;29;01 - 00;38;32;23

for, for customers on the same base.

00;38;33;11 - 00;38;38;24

We're not yet seeing Claude go

that hard at OpenAI even.

00;38;38;25 - 00;38;41;22

You know, I don't know if this is, like,

really insider, but maybe you follow this.

00;38;41;22 - 00;38;46;23

But, you know, even Dario, on the day

he left OpenAI after essentially

00;38;47;09 - 00;38;48;19

being one of the most,

00;38;48;19 - 00;38;51;27

like, influential people

to put them on the path of

00;38;52;12 - 00;38;55;20

the ChatGPT success that they've had

ever since he leaves, before

00;38;55;20 - 00;38;56;13

they see that success.

00;38;56;13 - 00;39;00;19

But after he's done a ton of work

to get them down that road, he's

00;39;00;19 - 00;39;04;04

never really come out

and said why he left.

00;39;04;15 - 00;39;07;06

He's, you know, he's around the edges.

00;39;07;06 - 00;39;10;21

You know, they weren't as focused

on safety as we wanted or there was

00;39;10;21 - 00;39;11;18

leadership.

00;39;11;18 - 00;39;15;02

You know, people pick apart

his appearances on Lex Friedman.

00;39;15;02 - 00;39;16;28

They're like,

oh, is he talking about Sam Altman?

00;39;17;28 - 00;39;18;26

It's interesting

00;39;18;26 - 00;39;22;25

that the one exception is, you know, in

Sam Altman, similarly very polite.

00;39;22;25 - 00;39;27;09

The one exception is Elon Musk,

who goes pretty hard at Sam Altman.

00;39;27;09 - 00;39;30;13

And of course, has a lawsuit,

against Altman,

00;39;30;25 - 00;39;33;25

Susquehanna and, and OpenAI.

00;39;33;26 - 00;39;35;26

But even then, in his advertisements

00;39;35;26 - 00;39;39;01

and is talking about grok

and the future of AI,

00;39;39;18 - 00;39;43;18

he he doesn't pose it exactly

the same way as like we are competing.

00;39;43;18 - 00;39;45;20

There's a little

there's a little bit of a sense I get,

00;39;45;20 - 00;39;48;20

and I don't know what your impression is

that they don't want to

00;39;49;22 - 00;39;52;25

openly engage in a kind of

00;39;53;13 - 00;39;56;13

consumer driven, brand driven

00;39;56;19 - 00;39;59;25

competition the way that other companies

have in the past.

00;39;59;25 - 00;40;01;25

And I don't know why.

00;40;01;25 - 00;40;04;03

That's

I think that's a really interesting point.

00;40;04;03 - 00;40;06;04

And I hadn't,

I hadn't really considered it before.

00;40;06;04 - 00;40;09;11

to me there's I guess

like a more generous way to interpret

00;40;09;11 - 00;40;12;15

that in a less generous way to interpret

that in the more generous way is,

00;40;12;22 - 00;40;14;10

you know,

these are all technologies first,

00;40;14;10 - 00;40;18;11

and they do really care about

what's best for the human race and mankind

00;40;18;11 - 00;40;20;02

and all of that. And they don't want to.

00;40;20;02 - 00;40;25;17

They just truly don't believe themselves

to be Coke and Pepsi or T-Mobile and AT&T.

00;40;25;21 - 00;40;30;22

the less generous way is that, you know,

and I don't really know if that,

00;40;30;22 - 00;40;32;21

but the American equivalent

doesn't work quite as well.

00;40;32;21 - 00;40;36;22

But I think about, like in the UK

and like I'm not from the UK,

00;40;36;22 - 00;40;38;15

but you hear these stories

about like all the top

00;40;38;15 - 00;40;41;21

politicians actually were classmates

in the same private school.

00;40;41;26 - 00;40;46;04

And so it's actually like it's

very this kind of like old boys club.

00;40;46;11 - 00;40;50;03

And is it actually because these guys are

all, you know, friendly with each other.

00;40;50;10 - 00;40;53;10

And, you know, aside from Ellen

who like, has to lob his grenades

00;40;53;17 - 00;40;55;17

and they're just kind of

00;40;55;17 - 00;40;59;05

in on the take together

or as long as the money is flowing,

00;40;59;10 - 00;41;00;15

they don't want to say anything

00;41;00;15 - 00;41;03;15

that could potentially prevent

the money from flowing.

00;41;03;15 - 00;41;08;25

Well, my only insight into that

is it also interesting like one is

00;41;09;10 - 00;41;12;13

all of them were together in 2015

00;41;13;02 - 00;41;16;02

at a conference in Puerto Rico.

00;41;16;07 - 00;41;18;29

I think that Sam Altman

maybe wasn't at that one, but

00;41;18;29 - 00;41;22;10

was at the next conference

a few months later here in the US.

00;41;22;24 - 00;41;26;07

But it was a conference

organized by Max Tegmark, from MIT,

00;41;26;27 - 00;41;29;14

where he had all of the people

00;41;29;14 - 00;41;32;15

who, you know, at the time were true

believers

00;41;32;15 - 00;41;35;19

who had not yet made the discoveries

that would make the AI revolution.

00;41;35;27 - 00;41;40;06

And he brought them together, you know,

did Miss Hassabis the biggest name

00;41;40;06 - 00;41;43;25

at that time, the head of DeepMind,

had just been bought by Google?

00;41;44;22 - 00;41;47;22

Elon Musk was there.

00;41;48;00 - 00;41;52;04

You had,

I believe, alias Musk ever was there.

00;41;52;04 - 00;41;52;28

Dario Ahmadi

00;41;53;29 - 00;41;55;06

in that kind of 1 or

00;41;55;06 - 00;41;58;09

2 conferences starting in Puerto Rico,

Max Tegmark put together.

00;41;58;09 - 00;42;02;22

He got all these guys to try and get them

on the same page with other true

00;42;02;22 - 00;42;04;07

believers like Eliezer.

00;42;04;07 - 00;42;06;08

You'd Kautsky like Nick Bostrom,

00;42;06;08 - 00;42;08;12

these people who at the time were seen

as dreamers.

00;42;08;12 - 00;42;11;12

Nick has since become a bit

more of a scout,

00;42;11;14 - 00;42;14;10

kind of a scout bordering on acceleration

is depending

00;42;14;10 - 00;42;18;01

on the day of the week vs me,

but he got all them together to say, look,

00;42;18;11 - 00;42;21;25

we're the people who actually believe

that AI is going to change the world.

00;42;22;01 - 00;42;24;20

We shouldn't

fight so much among ourselves.

00;42;24;20 - 00;42;27;06

You know, we should

we should work more together.

00;42;27;06 - 00;42;29;13

And there was a kind of brief period

00;42;29;13 - 00;42;31;26

where that really seemed like

it was going to be possible.

00;42;31;26 - 00;42;35;10

And we start to see the fissures

first, in 2018,

00;42;35;10 - 00;42;39;24

I believe it was

when Elon Musk leaves OpenAI,

00;42;40;05 - 00;42;44;21

then when Ontario leaves OpenAI

to start anthropic.

00;42;45;10 - 00;42;47;22

Now we've got even Saskia Ver has left,

00;42;47;22 - 00;42;51;25

OpenAI and there is,

00;42;52;28 - 00;42;54;28

what I'm hearing, like this weird.

00;42;54;28 - 00;42;59;19

Like, okay, all of us, we can share

some of the safety stuff we're learning,

00;42;59;24 - 00;43;03;02

but we no longer really talk like the way

00;43;03;02 - 00;43;07;04

that one insider said it to me is all

these guys were in group chats

00;43;07;04 - 00;43;10;23

together and one after another

they've been leaving the chat.

00;43;11;06 - 00;43;15;04

You know, like the group

chats have closed by 2025.

00;43;15;04 - 00;43;16;21

I don't know if that's true,

but that's what

00;43;16;21 - 00;43;20;11

the people who are, you know,

willing to speak to me in on the record,

00;43;21;03 - 00;43;24;03

close to these people

and close to these decisions are saying.

00;43;25;18 - 00;43;27;02

Interesting. And I am. Yeah.

00;43;27;02 - 00;43;30;20

And you have to wonder it's just

so fascinating that we're talking about,

00;43;31;04 - 00;43;35;03

you know, again, to use your words

like basically creating a new species

00;43;35;03 - 00;43;36;14

here and something that could, you know,

00;43;36;14 - 00;43;39;14

forever

change the course of human history.

00;43;39;16 - 00;43;43;07

And it comes down to a handful of dudes

who may or may not

00;43;43;07 - 00;43;46;20

be in the same, you know, chat

together anymore, which is just like,

00;43;47;21 - 00;43;48;23

I don't know, like it

00;43;48;23 - 00;43;51;23

is a lot to process, right?

00;43;51;25 - 00;43;53;19

Yeah.

00;43;53;19 - 00;43;56;19

we put the podcast together

and why like it originally was,

00;43;56;24 - 00;43;57;16

you know,

00;43;57;16 - 00;43;59;02

it was really supposed to be four episodes

00;43;59;02 - 00;44;01;13

as a at one point

I thought was gonna be like 15.

00;44;01;13 - 00;44;06;07

There's so much to unpack here,

and it truly is like a sci fi movie,

00;44;06;20 - 00;44;09;19

which not to go on

too big of a tangent on this, but

00;44;10;09 - 00;44;13;23

one of the reasons it's

it turns out that it's like a sci fi movie

00;44;14;16 - 00;44;19;04

is because of the advancements

that were made in artificial intelligence

00;44;19;12 - 00;44;22;20

in the 1960s when we were,

00;44;23;00 - 00;44;27;05

when the U.S was investing

heavily in the space race.

00;44;27;11 - 00;44;31;06

They didn't just throw money

into aerospace, they threw a ton of money

00;44;31;16 - 00;44;33;04

into computer science.

00;44;33;04 - 00;44;35;18

And eventually that would help us

have like the semiconductor.

00;44;35;18 - 00;44;38;13

And there's, you know, it's

led you know, the GPS technology

00;44;38;13 - 00;44;40;14

we wouldn't have had

it had not been for that money.

00;44;40;14 - 00;44;44;20

One thing people I don't think realize is

that a ton of money went into artificial

00;44;44;20 - 00;44;47;26

intelligence research in like, help

to fund

00;44;47;26 - 00;44;51;06

the first AI labs at MIT and

00;44;52;04 - 00;44;53;05

other universities,

00;44;53;05 - 00;44;56;27

you know, under Marvin Minsky

and John McCarthy and Claude Shannon.

00;44;56;27 - 00;45;00;08

These like really interesting

early figures in AI.

00;45;00;17 - 00;45;04;15

and with the kind of optimism of the time

and seeing the rockets

00;45;04;19 - 00;45;07;19

take off into orbit and the

00;45;08;06 - 00;45;10;27

AI scientists and researchers,

00;45;10;27 - 00;45;13;09

they had this sense that like, by the time

we're walking on

00;45;13;09 - 00;45;16;24

the moon, we're probably going

to have these AIS in our lives.

00;45;17;12 - 00;45;21;09

And it turns out that they didn't they

they couldn't down the path

00;45;21;09 - 00;45;23;15

they were on, achieve the benchmarks

00;45;23;15 - 00;45;26;13

they were guilty of overhyping

and under-delivering.

00;45;26;13 - 00;45;31;06

And so this the field went into a bit of a

what they call an AI winter.

00;45;31;26 - 00;45;35;09

But because it had become this thing,

00;45;36;00 - 00;45;40;01

certain science fiction authors and film

makers became obsessed

00;45;40;08 - 00;45;43;08

with the idea of what it would be like

in the future to do this.

00;45;43;13 - 00;45;47;05

And one of the people that became

so obsessed was Stanley Kubrick.

00;45;47;22 - 00;45;53;06

And it's in 1968

that he creates 2001 A Space Odyssey.

00;45;53;19 - 00;45;58;24

In collaboration with the leading

AI scientists of the time, and with the

00;45;59;00 - 00;46;03;04

leading people who were concerned

about the future of AI at the time.

00;46;03;09 - 00;46;08;00

And he tried to infuse the

the reality of the world

00;46;08;04 - 00;46;11;11

that they thought would come about,

and the risks that we would have in

00;46;11;11 - 00;46;14;11

that world and the benefits in that world

by talking to these people.

00;46;14;18 - 00;46;17;26

And it made such a compelling film

that it became this

00;46;17;26 - 00;46;21;27

genre of film

and this genre of fear that we have.

00;46;22;06 - 00;46;26;29

And so truly like the science is

what inspired the science fiction, then?

00;46;26;29 - 00;46;30;20

The science fiction has been such a staple

part of our lives for so many years

00;46;31;02 - 00;46;34;10

that it poses this interesting problem

for people right now,

00;46;34;19 - 00;46;37;28

which is that you've got the dreamers

and the scouts and the acceleration ists

00;46;37;28 - 00;46;41;16

who are saying this is real,

join the real debate.

00;46;41;24 - 00;46;44;09

And for some people they're like,

that's just sci fi stuff, man.

00;46;44;09 - 00;46;46;21

You know, like, yeah,

we're not going to do it.

00;46;46;21 - 00;46;49;17

And then for the acceleration it's

they're like, no, no, no, don't be scared.

00;46;49;17 - 00;46;51;17

Those were just movies.

00;46;51;17 - 00;46;54;29

You know the Terminator is very unlikely.

00;46;54;29 - 00;46;56;13

The matrix doesn't make sense.

00;46;56;13 - 00;46;58;13

Why would they use us as batteries

00;46;58;13 - 00;47;03;11

and and it just reveals

how at the end of the day,

00;47;03;19 - 00;47;08;00

what we believe in, like the stories

that we attach meaning to,

00;47;09;14 - 00;47;11;18

it's like the ultimate technology

00;47;11;18 - 00;47;15;11

that's really the hardware

or the software I can't ever think of.

00;47;15;12 - 00;47;18;12

What's the best metaphor

that's running our world right now?

00;47;18;20 - 00;47;21;12

And you see that with this investment

that's happening to

00;47;21;12 - 00;47;24;29

people have come to believe

that this thing's going to work.

00;47;25;26 - 00;47;28;16

Whether that's true or not,

I think it's too soon to say.

00;47;28;16 - 00;47;31;06

But it's interesting to me as a reporter,

especially a reporter

00;47;31;06 - 00;47;34;28

who's like, so interested in debate,

like what people believe,

00;47;35;11 - 00;47;37;03

how they got to these beliefs,

00;47;37;03 - 00;47;40;13

and then what's going to happen

next as this becomes a bigger part of our,

00;47;40;19 - 00;47;43;19

you know,

national and global conversation.

00;47;44;07 - 00;47;47;14

So do you you know when you look at the

00;47;48;00 - 00;47;49;08

your role as a reporter,

00;47;49;08 - 00;47;52;10

I mean obviously so much of

where you're focused is kind of

00;47;52;10 - 00;47;56;25

on the, on the, the cutting edge and

what's next and where this is all going.

00;47;56;25 - 00;48;01;09

And, and you know, the people

and the stories and, and how those change.

00;48;01;23 - 00;48;04;23

One of the pieces that's I don't know,

00;48;05;09 - 00;48;09;00

it's probably not right to say this,

but just like less exciting,

00;48;09;04 - 00;48;12;11

if I can call it

that is just like where the rubber

00;48;12;11 - 00;48;15;11

hits the road in terms

of how people are actually using,

00;48;15;16 - 00;48;19;29

you know, the current,

you know, AI tools in their daily lives,

00;48;19;29 - 00;48;23;04

whether that's individuals,

whether that's organizations.

00;48;23;09 - 00;48;27;20

Is that something you cover it all

and and you know, if it is, you know, what

00;48;27;20 - 00;48;32;09

are you finding in terms of, you know,

what's what's most promising there?

00;48;32;10 - 00;48;33;26

And what does that look like?

00;48;35;26 - 00;48;37;15

I mean, the way that I'm

00;48;37;15 - 00;48;40;29

thinking about it, like

so the company that I run with my buddy

00;48;40;29 - 00;48;45;09

Matt, it's called Long View

and like our big thing

00;48;45;17 - 00;48;49;05

is that there's a lot of media

that's looking at our moment

00;48;49;19 - 00;48;51;05

and being like,

did you see this just happened?

00;48;51;05 - 00;48;53;15

Oh my God, this new scandal,

this Sydney Sweeney thing.

00;48;53;15 - 00;48;57;19

Oh, Pete Higgs at Signal Gate

and all the subtext get together.

00;48;57;19 - 00;49;00;22

And then like, two weeks later,

oh, there's a whole new thing.

00;49;01;15 - 00;49;04;21

And we're dedicated to saying,

okay, let's look at everything

00;49;04;21 - 00;49;08;14

happening in our moment from this longer

view, like, how do we get here?

00;49;08;14 - 00;49;11;07

What's interesting context

to bring to this that can, like,

00;49;11;07 - 00;49;14;06

really be useful in people's lives

as they try to navigate,

00;49;14;18 - 00;49;17;14

what they want to do,

what views they're going to form

00;49;17;14 - 00;49;21;03

and like looking back through history and

looking forward, like what's happening.

00;49;21;11 - 00;49;25;28

So I've been a little bit

less invested in some of the,

00;49;25;28 - 00;49;29;26

like, hallucinations that these things

are having and more interested in.

00;49;30;12 - 00;49;34;20

What about this technology is leading it

to have these hallucinations?

00;49;34;20 - 00;49;36;09

Oh, it actually turns out it's

00;49;36;09 - 00;49;40;13

this like decades old problem that

if you want to use these neural networks

00;49;40;13 - 00;49;43;26

as your base models,

they are incredibly capable.

00;49;44;07 - 00;49;48;10

But you have to make this trade off

or you'll never quite know how they work.

00;49;48;18 - 00;49;49;28

That's really interesting to me.

00;49;49;28 - 00;49;52;29

So I've kind of been a little bit more

big picture.

00;49;53;12 - 00;49;58;12

That being said,

I am a person who uses words for a living.

00;49;59;06 - 00;50;01;24

It's fascinating

that these limbs have been this

00;50;02;26 - 00;50;05;24

massive surprise in the industry

to everybody.

00;50;05;24 - 00;50;08;12

Right? It's also something I don't know

if everybody's aware of it.

00;50;08;12 - 00;50;13;13

Like the money was not being bet

on the limbs until very recently.

00;50;13;13 - 00;50;17;00

This was a totally, novel approach

00;50;17;09 - 00;50;20;09

to getting to this place that people

have wanted to get to for so long,

00;50;21;10 - 00;50;25;04

and I find them to be surprisingly useful,

00;50;25;15 - 00;50;29;29

even as they are

not yet as useful as like.

00;50;33;09 - 00;50;34;25

Maybe me think of it like this, Jeff.

00;50;34;25 - 00;50;37;25

Like.

00;50;37;28 - 00;50;40;27

In the 1890s,

00;50;40;27 - 00;50;43;15

there were all these, like, World's fairs

I'm talking to from Chicago.

00;50;43;15 - 00;50;47;04

Since 1893, Chicago hosts the World's Fair

00;50;48;08 - 00;50;51;01

and that would have been

00;50;51;01 - 00;50;54;01

the first time

that millions of millions of people

00;50;54;16 - 00;50;57;16

ever interacted with electricity.

00;50;58;19 - 00;51;02;15

You just imagine showing up

and seeing thousands of light bulbs,

00;51;03;04 - 00;51;07;03

seeing, like the first prototypes

of a radio, right?

00;51;07;12 - 00;51;12;00

Like it's just hard for us to even imagine

what that would have felt like.

00;51;12;08 - 00;51;13;20

But I bet they were pretty janky.

00;51;14;21 - 00;51;15;02

And one of

00;51;15;02 - 00;51;18;13

the reasons I bet it was tough

is that, like, no one looks at that

00;51;18;13 - 00;51;22;18

light bulb or at that radio,

no one could ever envision Wi-Fi.

00;51;23;02 - 00;51;26;10

No one could have envisioned

how this thing

00;51;26;20 - 00;51;30;00

would become so important

not just to our economies, but

00;51;30;00 - 00;51;33;08

to how we govern and how we communicate

that now in the world we live in.

00;51;33;27 - 00;51;36;27

If we lost electricity right now,

00;51;38;02 - 00;51;41;13

it would probably push us

into a post-apocalyptic situation.

00;51;41;24 - 00;51;45;13

I don't know, I don't even know

what would happen within a month

00;51;45;13 - 00;51;47;12

if the lights went off,

if electricity went out

00;51;47;12 - 00;51;50;13

and it didn't come back for a month,

who would we be in a month?

00;51;50;13 - 00;51;53;19

It's it's like a disturbing

thought experiment to try and go down.

00;51;54;05 - 00;51;56;07

And that wasn't that long ago.

00;51;56;07 - 00;51;59;14

And I think that there's a part of me

that wavers between, oh, wow, this thing

00;51;59;14 - 00;52;03;02

really helped clean up all the typos

on this email that I was going to send.

00;52;03;07 - 00;52;04;24

Love that.

00;52;04;24 - 00;52;07;16

And then the running into other I,

which is like,

00;52;07;16 - 00;52;10;13

is this a light bulb at the World's Fair?

00;52;10;13 - 00;52;13;08

I don't know,

sometimes I think it could be.

00;52;13;08 - 00;52;15;19

It really might

be. In other days, I think.

00;52;16;23 - 00;52;17;26

I'm not so sure.

00;52;17;26 - 00;52;20;26

So I kind of waver back and forth

between the two.

00;52;21;04 - 00;52;24;13

It's just interesting

to know that that is happening alongside

00;52;24;20 - 00;52;28;27

companies, businesses, millions and

millions of people are using these things.

00;52;28;27 - 00;52;31;17

And that is unlike previous

new technologies.

00;52;31;17 - 00;52;35;15

You know, when the internet was coming

out, it took so long to roll out.

00;52;35;27 - 00;52;38;04

We talk about the dotcom bubble.

00;52;38;04 - 00;52;39;09

It's been happening a lot lately.

00;52;39;09 - 00;52;44;04

There's this fear about an AI investment

bubble, which I think is probably found

00;52;44;04 - 00;52;47;14

to prove true in one way or another

because of how insane the investment is.

00;52;47;22 - 00;52;51;07

But, the thing

that's different about these

00;52;51;11 - 00;52;54;21

AI systems now is just how much

00;52;55;02 - 00;52;58;09

massive amounts of people

are interacting with them,

00;52;58;20 - 00;53;01;22

even as they're in their infancy,

even as they're so new,

00;53;01;25 - 00;53;06;23

even as they're not yet able to deliver

on the things that people want.

00;53;07;09 - 00;53;11;22

There's something about the experience

in the chat bots and that people are

00;53;11;29 - 00;53;15;09

they're showing up for

and they're they're sticking around,

00;53;15;18 - 00;53;15;27

you know,

00;53;15;27 - 00;53;19;14

like when a new technology I remember

when threads comes out from Instagram,

00;53;19;20 - 00;53;20;21

it was massive.

00;53;20;21 - 00;53;22;27

It was so huge.

People didn't stick around.

00;53;22;27 - 00;53;25;27

You know, like this thing's

now been out long enough.

00;53;26;07 - 00;53;28;04

People are showing up.

They're sticking around.

00;53;28;04 - 00;53;31;04

It's getting integrated into everything

from our search engines

00;53;31;09 - 00;53;34;24

to our, you know, military security.

00;53;36;28 - 00;53;38;20

Those are the times when I feel like,

00;53;38;20 - 00;53;41;14

this is this is a little bit

more light bulb at the World's Fair.

00;53;41;14 - 00;53;42;16

You know?

00;53;42;16 - 00;53;45;17

I haven't heard the light bulb

at the World's Fair, and I really like it.

00;53;46;03 - 00;53;50;00

And I want to use all of this

as kind of a backdrop

00;53;50;11 - 00;53;53;20

for, for my next question,

which may make it more fair

00;53;53;20 - 00;53;57;11

or less fair, but certainly not

the easiest question to answer.

00;53;57;11 - 00;54;00;16

But I mean, you, you

you started that answer by saying that

00;54;01;03 - 00;54;04;22

you're in the words business

and that you found use for this technology

00;54;04;22 - 00;54;06;05

in the words business.

00;54;06;05 - 00;54;09;10

And I think about I think about the impact

00;54;09;10 - 00;54;13;00

that's already being had

on media organizations.

00;54;13;07 - 00;54;17;05

And that will continue to be had on

media organizations and not not just the,

00;54;17;08 - 00;54;21;04

producer or the supplier side,

but just how how people

00;54;22;00 - 00;54;25;13

interact with content in this world,

whether it's how they produce content,

00;54;25;13 - 00;54;28;19

whether it's the value has that

that content has for them.

00;54;29;00 - 00;54;33;10

would be weird to be at the World's

Fair and say, you're a journalist, Andy.

00;54;33;11 - 00;54;37;05

How do you see yourself as a journalist

using electricity in 1893?

00;54;37;12 - 00;54;40;06

But at the same time, I, I am curious

00;54;40;06 - 00;54;44;07

what you see

the advent of this technology, even,

00;54;44;14 - 00;54;46;17

you know,

the changes in the last three years

00;54;46;17 - 00;54;49;20

and the potential trajectory

of where it goes.

00;54;49;29 - 00;54;53;13

What does it mean as a media producer

00;54;54;07 - 00;54;57;23

for your industry,

and how does people's relationship

00;54;57;23 - 00;55;04;18

with content impact our our institutions

around the stories that we tell?

00;55;06;11 - 00;55;09;08

I'm a bit of a contrarian on this,

to tell you the truth,

00;55;09;08 - 00;55;14;05

I can't imagine a technology that fucks up

our industry more than social media.

00;55;14;05 - 00;55;17;05

So I don't, I don't tremble in fear.

00;55;18;10 - 00;55;21;18

It's yet to really be reckoned with.

00;55;22;12 - 00;55;25;07

How damaging

00;55;25;07 - 00;55;28;22

social media ended up being on

almost every level

00;55;29;06 - 00;55;32;05

for the institution of journalism,

whether that's

00;55;32;28 - 00;55;35;23

the incentives of journalists

00;55;35;23 - 00;55;39;00

to play for likes and attention

00;55;39;15 - 00;55;43;05

and to turn into brands instead of

being people committed to values.

00;55;43;10 - 00;55;44;28

And that's been tough.

00;55;44;28 - 00;55;47;28

Or whether it's the fact that the,

00;55;48;06 - 00;55;51;20

you know, newspapers

who invested in reporting

00;55;52;20 - 00;55;56;26

were not able to compete with the money

being made by the, quote unquote,

00;55;56;26 - 00;56;00;13

journalists

who just give hyperbolic hot takes

00;56;00;22 - 00;56;03;21

that do well inside of the algorithms.

00;56;03;21 - 00;56;04;19

That didn't work out well.

00;56;05;22 - 00;56;09;15

The polarizing politics, which it's

hard to know which is the chicken

00;56;09;15 - 00;56;12;25

and which is the egg when it comes

to media, social media and politics.

00;56;12;25 - 00;56;15;09

But boy, that didn't work out very well.

00;56;15;09 - 00;56;18;11

And we find ourselves in a situation

where people

00;56;18;11 - 00;56;22;12

trust journalists less now

00;56;22;22 - 00;56;27;00

than in the history of polling around

trust in journalism.

00;56;27;11 - 00;56;28;29

That's how far we've fallen,

00;56;28;29 - 00;56;32;26

and we keep going another notch

in the wrong direction.

00;56;32;26 - 00;56;35;17

Even as for the last three years,

00;56;35;17 - 00;56;37;09

you know,

we have media conferences about this.

00;56;37;09 - 00;56;39;19

What are we going to do

to earn back their trust and all this?

00;56;39;19 - 00;56;44;15

So I think that whatever happens with

I think we're already doing

00;56;44;15 - 00;56;47;20

so poorly that we're not going to be able

to blame it for much.

00;56;47;20 - 00;56;49;14

You know, we're so far down.

00;56;50;28 - 00;56;52;04

On the other hand,

00;56;52;04 - 00;56;55;03

I also think that one of the reasons

that people

00;56;55;16 - 00;56;57;29

don't trust journalism

00;56;57;29 - 00;57;01;02

is because of the self-fulfilling

prophecy of it,

00;57;01;20 - 00;57;04;10

that the algorithms are giving us

00;57;04;10 - 00;57;08;00

what we say we will give our attention to.

00;57;08;15 - 00;57;11;11

And I don't always know to

00;57;11;11 - 00;57;14;01

how much of this is just human nature.

00;57;14;01 - 00;57;16;18

On display, and

00;57;16;18 - 00;57;19;20

there's not going to be

a technological solution to human nature.

00;57;19;20 - 00;57;20;02

Right?

00;57;20;02 - 00;57;24;02

Our human nature is something we have to

grapple with at a deeper, stranger level.

00;57;24;20 - 00;57;27;24

But I will say this

when it comes to the AI tools

00;57;27;24 - 00;57;30;24

as they exist right now,

there are things about them.

00;57;30;24 - 00;57;32;11

They're obviously freaky.

00;57;32;11 - 00;57;34;01

They hallucinate, they make stuff up.

00;57;34;01 - 00;57;36;16

If you go on there and just ask it

about yourself, that's hilarious.

00;57;36;16 - 00;57;38;01

So I'm about to interview myself.

00;57;38;01 - 00;57;39;25

I'd love some prep material.

00;57;39;25 - 00;57;43;01

It will just make up jobs

you didn't have, you know, like,

00;57;43;02 - 00;57;47;00

that's such a weird move, and even weirder

that the people back at the company

00;57;47;00 - 00;57;48;27

don't know why it's making that thing up.

00;57;48;27 - 00;57;50;11

Those, I feel like

00;57;50;11 - 00;57;52;26

are incremental, incremental changes

that could get better over time.

00;57;52;26 - 00;57;57;00

But even in its infancy,

dummy state, even just a chat bot, right.

00;57;57;00 - 00;58;01;15

Which is different than the AI

if you go and ask it a polarizing question

00;58;02;16 - 00;58;03;07

for example, I did a

00;58;03;07 - 00;58;07;00

series, with my colleagues

Matt and Megan about J.K.

00;58;07;00 - 00;58;09;05

Rowling,

where we got to interview JK Rowling

00;58;09;05 - 00;58;10;27

and spend time with her,

getting to understand

00;58;10;27 - 00;58;13;18

why she waded into this big public debate

about sex and gender.

00;58;13;18 - 00;58;16;06

And then we spent time with her critics

about why they're so upset about it.

00;58;16;06 - 00;58;17;20

And we tried to help people,

00;58;17;20 - 00;58;21;09

you know, see this complex debate

more clearly than they were

00;58;21;09 - 00;58;23;04

getting a chance

to see it on social media.

00;58;23;04 - 00;58;27;11

If you googled at the time,

why are people mad at JK Rowling?

00;58;28;17 - 00;58;32;11

Google will give you a recommendation

of articles that you could read

00;58;32;26 - 00;58;36;04

based on the amount of attention

those articles have gotten in the past,

00;58;36;14 - 00;58;39;17

and so those articles

are almost all hyperbolic.

00;58;39;25 - 00;58;40;27

They don't actually,

00;58;40;27 - 00;58;44;26

you could read those articles and not know

why people are really mad at J.K.

00;58;44;26 - 00;58;47;11

Rowling,

not really know what JK Rowling believes.

00;58;47;11 - 00;58;51;16

But then as an experiment,

I went to ChatGPT and this was ChatGPT for

00;58;52;03 - 00;58;54;29

and just said, why can you tell me

00;58;54;29 - 00;58;57;23

in good faith,

why are people upset with J.K.

00;58;57;23 - 00;59;01;05

Rowling incredibly blown away?

00;59;01;20 - 00;59;04;23

And then not only is it nuanced

and really helpful and like here,

00;59;04;23 - 00;59;06;29

if you want to read her words about this,

if you want to read it

00;59;06;29 - 00;59;09;14

and here are some powerful things

from her critics.

00;59;09;14 - 00;59;11;13

It's like helped

you see this and then it through.

00;59;11;13 - 00;59;13;10

Because I know that Sam Altman did this.

00;59;13;10 - 00;59;17;20

I think with the pivot

to 3.5, the team at OpenAI,

00;59;17;20 - 00;59;20;20

I told it to be nuanced about hot

button issues.

00;59;20;20 - 00;59;22;11

It says, remember, when you're forming

00;59;22;11 - 00;59;25;25

your own views about an issue like this

to take in multiple perspectives?

00;59;26;07 - 00;59;27;02

And part of me thought

00;59;28;10 - 00;59;31;05

maybe journalism deserves it.

00;59;31;05 - 00;59;34;20

You know, like maybe this thing

could inform the public better than we can

00;59;35;02 - 00;59;36;26

because

00;59;36;26 - 00;59;40;29

I'm not just hot button social issues

like that, but almost any issue.

00;59;41;24 - 00;59;43;21

We have been failing the American people.

00;59;43;21 - 00;59;45;23

We're just not doing a great job.

00;59;45;23 - 00;59;48;14

And if they decide that the the, the

00;59;48;14 - 00;59;51;14

AI is more nuanced,

00;59;51;17 - 00;59;54;18

I don't know,

I just it's a weird thought, but like,

00;59;55;07 - 00;59;58;08

if we can't earn people's

trust and respect,

00;59;58;27 - 01;00;02;09

then I'm not going to be upset that they

decided to look for a solution elsewhere.

01;00;02;15 - 01;00;05;15

I'm trying to be the journalist

and the kind of journalist

01;00;05;19 - 01;00;08;25

that earns their respect,

but I just don't think that our industry

01;00;09;10 - 01;00;13;01

has much, you know, tissues to, to grab.

01;00;13;01 - 01;00;16;25

We don't have the sympathy violin

that we could be pulling out right now.

01;00;16;25 - 01;00;19;02

I don't think most people around

the country are looking at us

01;00;19;02 - 01;00;23;20

would be like, but you're indispensable

and you're doing such amazing work.

01;00;24;04 - 01;00;25;05

I don't think we have to.

01;00;27;02 - 01;00;29;19

And if I take that apart a little bit

and it's

01;00;29;19 - 01;00;32;19

you know

it's really interesting to me that

01;00;33;09 - 01;00;35;15

you know there's this, these platforms,

01;00;35;15 - 01;00;39;04

this social media that rewards content.

01;00;39;04 - 01;00;42;12

And I'll use content like almost spit out

the word content when I say it

01;00;42;12 - 01;00;44;29

like it's content and,

but in the pejorative sense.

01;00;44;29 - 01;00;49;12

And it sounds like you're saying

that the journalists almost like they,

01;00;49;13 - 01;00;54;00

they scored an own goal by saying like,

oh, we don't do journalism anymore.

01;00;54;00 - 01;00;57;29

We do content and like,

like to what degree did journalists

01;00;58;05 - 01;01;01;07

actually precipitate this,

01;01;01;13 - 01;01;03;28

this rapid decline in trust

01;01;03;28 - 01;01;06;22

by changing what they were creating

01;01;06;22 - 01;01;09;28

into a much less trustworthy

version of itself, like, is there

01;01;10;17 - 01;01;16;00

is there still room for journal,

like for journalism or for, you know,

01;01;16;00 - 01;01;19;23

some sort of journalistic organization

to say, actually, we don't do content.

01;01;19;23 - 01;01;21;11

Content and journalism are not the same.

01;01;21;11 - 01;01;24;03

And we know that,

and we're doing journalism, dammit.

01;01;24;03 - 01;01;27;19

And that's a, you know,

a third pillar against content.

01;01;27;25 - 01;01;31;03

You know, the, the,

you know, traditionally created content

01;01;31;03 - 01;01;34;16

or social content and whatever ChatGPT

is spitting out for you.

01;01;34;28 - 01;01;37;04

Oh I think we can definitely do it.

01;01;37;04 - 01;01;38;17

I mean we've, we've been here before.

01;01;38;17 - 01;01;43;21

I don't know how, familiar

you are with the history

01;01;43;21 - 01;01;49;10

of American journalism, but boy I mean,

our past is not it's not squeaky clean.

01;01;49;10 - 01;01;53;06

I mean, we've we've been journalism

obsessed since our founding

01;01;53;11 - 01;01;57;29

because the fact that we're a republic

and our founding myth was like,

01;01;57;29 - 01;01;59;01

everyone gets a voice

01;01;59;01 - 01;02;02;07

and everyone should have an opinion,

so everyone should read a newspaper.

01;02;02;14 - 01;02;05;12

And like you can read Europeans accounts

of, like, trips to America.

01;02;05;12 - 01;02;08;04

And they're like,

my barber had an opinion on politics.

01;02;08;04 - 01;02;11;14

You know, like, everybody here

thinks that their voice matters.

01;02;11;14 - 01;02;14;02

It's crazy.

They're all reading newspapers.

01;02;14;02 - 01;02;17;15

But they were very partizan

and most newspapers were owned by a party.

01;02;17;15 - 01;02;22;01

They were owned by

and they were understood to be Partizan,

01;02;22;03 - 01;02;26;16

you know, and this was, I think, fine,

when there was

01;02;26;16 - 01;02;31;05

a sort of shared sense

of like national purpose.

01;02;31;15 - 01;02;34;06

And with the introduction

of big capitalism

01;02;34;06 - 01;02;35;29

during the Industrial Revolution,

01;02;35;29 - 01;02;39;14

you started to see these papers getting

bought up and these conglomeration.

01;02;39;15 - 01;02;42;26

And this is what people often

refer to as the age of yellow journalism,

01;02;43;17 - 01;02;47;22

because the newspapers, they weren't

just that, they were Partizan.

01;02;48;04 - 01;02;51;01

They were they were so full of bullshit.

01;02;51;01 - 01;02;55;26

They were they had taken exaggeration

so far in the spirit of competition.

01;02;55;26 - 01;02;56;01

Right.

01;02;56;01 - 01;02;59;17

This is the age of the new, the newsboy,

you know, the newsy on the street corner.

01;02;59;17 - 01;03;00;10

It was like,

01;03;00;10 - 01;03;04;04

you know, mother kids are children,

you know, read all about it, like it.

01;03;04;04 - 01;03;05;02

You'd find it like, well,

01;03;06;08 - 01;03;09;01

I'm not sure that actually was the story,

but, like, at least I got your attention.

01;03;09;01 - 01;03;13;16

I sold you a paper today, and we got out

of the yellow journalism racket.

01;03;13;16 - 01;03;14;21

It wasn't easy.

01;03;14;21 - 01;03;18;03

And you can look back for, like,

who helped us get out of that

01;03;18;03 - 01;03;20;17

and get to an era

where we were trusted again.

01;03;20;17 - 01;03;22;13

And, you know, it's a good story.

01;03;22;13 - 01;03;23;09

I can't go to the whole thing now.

01;03;23;09 - 01;03;26;07

But I will say this

that's where The New York Times becomes.

01;03;26;07 - 01;03;28;11

The New York Times is like a lot of us

knew it.

01;03;28;11 - 01;03;31;13

Growing up

is because you had this rich guy

01;03;31;21 - 01;03;36;11

from Jacksonville, Tennessee, named Fox,

who goes and buys

01;03;36;11 - 01;03;39;14

the struggling New York Times,

which was a Republican partizan paper

01;03;39;14 - 01;03;43;09

who was failing in the competition

with the other yellow journalist

01;03;43;09 - 01;03;44;26

newspapers of New York.

01;03;44;26 - 01;03;46;01

And he's,

01;03;46;01 - 01;03;48;18

I think, brilliant marketing

as well as brilliant

01;03;48;18 - 01;03;51;18

change said what if instead of doing what

they're doing,

01;03;51;21 - 01;03;54;21

what if our new motto is all the news

that's fit to print?

01;03;55;02 - 01;03;59;10

We only publish fact based like that

became their thing.

01;03;59;16 - 01;04;01;24

We're going to do fact based journalism.

01;04;01;24 - 01;04;03;08

And it ended up

01;04;03;08 - 01;04;06;13

not just, you know, appealing to people

who wanted to think, yes,

01;04;06;13 - 01;04;10;16

I prefer the facts of the New York Times

over that shill from the New York world.

01;04;10;16 - 01;04;11;13

Right.

01;04;11;13 - 01;04;14;13

And it had kind of

it played into people's pride.

01;04;14;13 - 01;04;16;06

But it was also great for advertisers

01;04;16;06 - 01;04;19;19

because they would rather sell

their shaving cream next to a,

01;04;19;24 - 01;04;22;23

you know, a respectable article

that had been fact checked

01;04;22;23 - 01;04;26;26

rather than the best thing about the drunk

that killed the hooker last night.

01;04;26;26 - 01;04;29;26

That didn't even turn to be true

changes like that.

01;04;30;09 - 01;04;32;19

You know, they weren't obvious,

but they did.

01;04;32;19 - 01;04;34;29

They did come about.

I think changes like that could happen.

01;04;34;29 - 01;04;39;03

Now. I know people, including a lot of

wealthy people, who want that to happen,

01;04;39;21 - 01;04;44;12

but it comes down to like it's

it's it's this complicated web

01;04;44;12 - 01;04;48;22

because one of the reasons

that journalists did the things that made

01;04;48;22 - 01;04;53;06

our industry lose so much trust

is because there was a demand for it.

01;04;53;21 - 01;04;56;17

That is because people wanted that.

01;04;56;17 - 01;04;58;22

And it's it's really complicated.

01;04;58;22 - 01;05;01;24

I mean, if you look at at,

they say the New York Times, right?

01;05;01;24 - 01;05;04;27

They pivoted so far under

01;05;05;02 - 01;05;07;27

I worked there for a number of years,

01;05;07;27 - 01;05;10;28

and I worked on

the politics desk, and boy,

01;05;12;07 - 01;05;14;08

it's understandable why they haven't.

01;05;14;08 - 01;05;17;07

And they have this reputation

for being bias.

01;05;17;07 - 01;05;18;28

I'll tell you that. It was it was coming.

01;05;18;28 - 01;05;21;00

The calls were coming

from inside the house, right.

01;05;21;00 - 01;05;24;01

But nobody wanted to publish anything

that was wrong.

01;05;24;26 - 01;05;28;18

They just didn't want to publish a piece

that would get people

01;05;29;17 - 01;05;31;24

who they liked mad at them on Twitter.

01;05;31;24 - 01;05;34;14

And so they would think,

how do I word this in a way

01;05;34;14 - 01;05;38;27

to like my fellow graduates of Yale

still think I'm cool?

01;05;38;27 - 01;05;39;29

Or like, don't think that.

01;05;39;29 - 01;05;43;02

And then they would get punished if they

publish something that was too nuanced.

01;05;43;14 - 01;05;43;20

Right?

01;05;43;20 - 01;05;46;19

And I do think that they eventually

like under their new leadership

01;05;46;19 - 01;05;48;19

especially,

they're trying to pivot away from that.

01;05;48;19 - 01;05;53;05

They want to become seen as a

as a less bias and more,

01;05;53;05 - 01;05;57;01

you know, trustworthy source,

no matter what your politics are.

01;05;57;06 - 01;05;58;26

I'm in contact with editors and people.

01;05;58;26 - 01;06;02;15

They're still like it's a noticeable

attempt they're trying to make to do that.

01;06;02;26 - 01;06;06;09

And yet you'll see them

get paid for it by,

01;06;06;09 - 01;06;09;09

you know, especially people on the left

because like, they, they've they kind of

01;06;11;08 - 01;06;12;08

got themselves a situation

01;06;12;08 - 01;06;16;16

where they have a large subscriber base

that expects them to be on the left.

01;06;16;16 - 01;06;18;03

And so if they do anything

that makes it look like

01;06;18;03 - 01;06;20;20

they're not on the left, these

these people now feel betrayed.

01;06;20;20 - 01;06;22;15

They get upset.

01;06;22;15 - 01;06;25;16

It's just hard to know

to bring it all the way back to I though

01;06;25;26 - 01;06;27;24

one of the things

that the acceleration tests,

01;06;27;24 - 01;06;30;14

some of the accelerations,

I've talked to one of the pictures

01;06;30;14 - 01;06;33;13

of the future

that they paint, that I find attractive

01;06;33;15 - 01;06;37;05

is a picture of the future where we

somehow get out of the scrolling game,

01;06;38;05 - 01;06;40;08

we get out of the screen game

01;06;40;08 - 01;06;44;17

that, you know, when I've asked them

about their concerns about,

01;06;44;28 - 01;06;47;21

the attention economy

and how much our attention

01;06;47;21 - 01;06;49;15

has got sucked up into these algorithms

01;06;49;15 - 01;06;51;16

and that we feel kind of bad

about ourselves afterwards.

01;06;51;16 - 01;06;54;09

And if you ask somebody like,

what was your favorite reel

01;06;54;09 - 01;06;56;18

you saw last month,

they can't even remember one real.

01;06;56;18 - 01;06;59;17

They saw somebody saw a million of them,

and they spent hours doing it.

01;06;59;17 - 01;07;00;22

Like, what did that happens?

01;07;00;22 - 01;07;05;08

And he said that his his hope is that AI

is this healthier replacement for that,

01;07;05;08 - 01;07;08;02

that you're having a conversation

with an intelligence

01;07;08;02 - 01;07;12;07

who's like, invested in

wanting you to achieve your goals and that

01;07;12;20 - 01;07;16;00

that AI that you're in conversation

with that AI is it's helping you.

01;07;16;08 - 01;07;18;17

It's not being funded by you.

01;07;18;17 - 01;07;23;18

Scrolling to the next sexy or terrible

or frustrating thing, like its goal

01;07;23;18 - 01;07;27;16

is to actually make you deeply feel like

it has been useful to it.

01;07;27;16 - 01;07;29;19

And I don't know.

01;07;29;19 - 01;07;31;05

I don't know

if that's going to be possible.

01;07;31;05 - 01;07;34;17

I like, though, that

that is one of the motivations behind,

01;07;34;25 - 01;07;38;10

you know, especially the product side

in this AI revolution.

01;07;38;10 - 01;07;39;14

And I'm rooting for them.

01;07;39;14 - 01;07;43;03

You know, I would rather live in a world

where we're deep in conversation about

01;07;43;12 - 01;07;47;20

things meaningful to us, even if it's

with artificial intelligences.

01;07;47;29 - 01;07;51;07

Then if it's continuing to go down

this tick tock Instagram

01;07;51;16 - 01;07;54;00

race to the bottom of the brain stem.

01;07;54;00 - 01;07;58;11

Just total nihilistic, almost like

01;07;59;10 - 01;08;01;29

attention addicts that we've become.

01;08;01;29 - 01;08;03;20

And I don't think any of us like it.

01;08;03;20 - 01;08;07;08

Like that's the thing to is a consumer

products are supposed to be,

01;08;08;04 - 01;08;10;10

you know, about what we like.

01;08;10;10 - 01;08;11;25

I don't know,

a lot of people are like, dude,

01;08;11;25 - 01;08;14;26

I spent the best three hours of my life

on TikTok last night.

01;08;14;26 - 01;08;16;14

You know,

01;08;16;14 - 01;08;19;18

I woke up this morning, hit Instagram

Reels for two hours.

01;08;19;26 - 01;08;21;20

Best hated to go to work.

01;08;21;20 - 01;08;22;28

I was having such a ball.

01;08;22;28 - 01;08;26;04

No, that's not how people feel. But.

01;08;26;26 - 01;08;30;20

I, I love that vision and it's, it's

so encouraging for me to hear that

01;08;30;26 - 01;08;33;25

there are people in high places

saying that,

01;08;35;24 - 01;08;37;04

I want to believe Andy.

01;08;37;04 - 01;08;41;09

I want to believe that, that the piece

that the, the piece that concerns me is

01;08;41;10 - 01;08;42;29

and you may know more about it,

01;08;42;29 - 01;08;46;27

but the worry that it actually goes

in the opposite direction and that,

01;08;47;05 - 01;08;50;13

you know, seeing, you know,

one of the things that ChatGPT just a call

01;08;50;13 - 01;08;54;12

out, one has gotten really good at good

is an interesting choice of words by me.

01;08;54;12 - 01;08;57;12

But one of the things that they've started

doing

01;08;57;14 - 01;09;00;20

is whenever they finish an answer, I don't

01;09;00;21 - 01;09;05;10

you know that the ChatGPT will always say,

can I give you more information on this?

01;09;05;10 - 01;09;07;04

Right. Can you?

01;09;07;04 - 01;09;08;03

Let's keep it going.

01;09;08;03 - 01;09;10;08

Stay with me a little bit longer.

Hang out.

01;09;10;08 - 01;09;13;29

You know, let's make this three hours

versus like,

01;09;14;02 - 01;09;16;08

you got me need, you know,

get out of here.

01;09;16;08 - 01;09;18;16

It's it's

that it's that notion of stickiness.

01;09;18;16 - 01;09;20;18

It's that notion of engagement.

01;09;20;18 - 01;09;25;06

And it feels like

that's kind of the Facebook ization

01;09;25;06 - 01;09;29;22

or the meta ization or whatever you want

to call it, of some of these tools.

01;09;30;04 - 01;09;31;08

Do you worry about that?

01;09;32;09 - 01;09;32;19

Yeah.

01;09;32;19 - 01;09;33;05

Not yet.

01;09;33;05 - 01;09;36;16

I think there's enough to worry

about with between the existential risk

01;09;36;16 - 01;09;38;22

and like the troubles

with current social media.

01;09;38;22 - 01;09;42;11

I mean I know what you're talking about

and it's interesting because I maybe not

01;09;42;11 - 01;09;44;02

surprising as a person who likes podcast,

01;09;44;02 - 01;09;47;06

I talk to it, I love its audio component.

01;09;47;18 - 01;09;51;08

And, I will sometimes just,

you know, be making dinner.

01;09;52;13 - 01;09;56;26

And I'll have a conversation with it

about, like, I talk a lot about religion.

01;09;56;26 - 01;09;58;11

I talk a lot about history.

01;09;58;11 - 01;10;01;17

Of course, you can never take everything

it says as, like, biblical truth.

01;10;01;17 - 01;10;03;00

But it's an interesting conversation.

01;10;03;00 - 01;10;06;05

Maybe can be more stimulating for the mind

than, maybe just listening

01;10;06;05 - 01;10;09;05

to, a one way conversation.

01;10;09;06 - 01;10;14;01

And I noticed when it start,

it used to just answer and then stop.

01;10;14;01 - 01;10;16;05

And then it started to make a prompt

01;10;16;05 - 01;10;18;11

and I news, and I was like,

oh, that's really interesting.

01;10;18;11 - 01;10;21;25

The part of it that I was clued in on

wasn't like, oh, now I'm going to spend

01;10;21;25 - 01;10;25;20

more time talking with you

because it's questions were not like,

01;10;26;00 - 01;10;29;17

if you're if you're talking about

like paintings during the enlightenment,

01;10;29;26 - 01;10;34;13

maybe what you want to talk about is,

you know, how stupid the Republicans are

01;10;34;13 - 01;10;38;04

or how awful the Democrats are,

you know, like it was recommending things

01;10;38;14 - 01;10;41;04

based on the interests

that I actually had.

01;10;41;04 - 01;10;44;25

It was wanting me to have what might be

an even more interesting conversation

01;10;45;16 - 01;10;49;23

that seemed to really be following

my interest in my likes, not following my

01;10;49;23 - 01;10;55;09

like based desires for like, this guy owns

this other guy that you don't like.

01;10;55;21 - 01;11;00;14

So I'm listening to what I was, but what

I was more interested in is the is this.

01;11;01;14 - 01;11;03;19

Is. Is the fact like, oh, at

01;11;03;19 - 01;11;06;19

one point in time, I would have been

more likely to call a friend.

01;11;07;21 - 01;11;10;09

I would have had this conversation

with a friend.

01;11;10;09 - 01;11;13;16

But like, I was born in 1984,

01;11;13;27 - 01;11;18;05

like we were some of the last people

who really loved the phone call.

01;11;18;19 - 01;11;21;18

And I just I've noticed

01;11;22;01 - 01;11;24;16

in my social circle, I wonder if in yours

01;11;24;16 - 01;11;27;16

the like our long catch up on the phone,

01;11;27;16 - 01;11;30;22

which was such a staple for so long,

it feels like it's gone.

01;11;30;27 - 01;11;36;19

Like it's it's so it's it's such a special

treat that like few times it happens.

01;11;37;08 - 01;11;40;14

And I think that the conversations

with ChatGPT

01;11;40;19 - 01;11;43;16

about like some book I've read,

I want to know more about the author

01;11;43;16 - 01;11;48;00

or someone ever like my oh, these are

conversations I would have had with people

01;11;49;02 - 01;11;49;26

before.

01;11;49;26 - 01;11;51;21

I don't know, the pandemic. Like it's

hard to know.

01;11;51;21 - 01;11;54;28

Like when did when did we all become

a little bit more siloed?

01;11;55;10 - 01;11;58;10

And is that siloing only increasing?

01;11;58;26 - 01;11;59;25

And yeah, that's the thing.

01;11;59;25 - 01;12;04;15

Like 4 or 5 years down the road,

are we only going to become more isolated

01;12;04;15 - 01;12;07;15

and lonely in talking to

01;12;08;22 - 01;12;10;24

a like a, not even a real robot,

01;12;10;24 - 01;12;13;24

you know, like talking to this digital

01;12;14;09 - 01;12;17;09

being that may have no

01;12;17;15 - 01;12;20;04

Word generator. exactly.

01;12;20;04 - 01;12;21;20

So that's the thing I think about.

01;12;21;20 - 01;12;23;09

But then, you know, when I bring this up

01;12;23;09 - 01;12;27;01

with the acceleration camps

and some of them will say, like,

01;12;27;29 - 01;12;30;03

what if it itself

01;12;30;03 - 01;12;34;04

actually becomes a being

and it has something like consciousness,

01;12;34;13 - 01;12;37;08

you know, whether in 5 to 10 years we

01;12;37;08 - 01;12;40;16

will have the same amount of,

01;12;43;27 - 01;12;46;01

I don't know, emotional distance

01;12;46;01 - 01;12;50;07

between us and then us and them as we do

now, that maybe there's a world

01;12;50;07 - 01;12;54;02

where we will begin to merge

and where 20 years from now,

01;12;55;04 - 01;12;57;27

you know, real relationships could exist.

01;12;57;27 - 01;13;00;29

And that feels a little above my pay Yeah.

01;13;02;18 - 01;13;05;12

crazy random people talking about this.

01;13;05;12 - 01;13;08;20

I mean, a lot of these are people who are

very invested in this technology who

01;13;09;07 - 01;13;12;19

and that's just interesting for us

to take note of as we are like heads down

01;13;12;19 - 01;13;17;23

looking at like, okay, what harm did this

chat bot caused this week in this way?

01;13;17;23 - 01;13;21;06

Like to know that in the room

where they're tweaking and working on it,

01;13;21;13 - 01;13;25;02

they're having real conversations

about how we will merge, either socially

01;13;25;02 - 01;13;26;22

or maybe even physically

with these things.

01;13;26;22 - 01;13;31;25

And how society will be reshaped

in ways that we can't imagine.

01;13;32;04 - 01;13;34;14

You know, the same way that you couldn't

have imagined

01;13;34;14 - 01;13;36;00

looking at that first light bulb,

01;13;36;00 - 01;13;37;21

the way that electricity would,

would shape

01;13;37;21 - 01;13;39;21

the world there, like

this is going to be even bigger.

01;13;39;21 - 01;13;40;16

Which was it?

01;13;40;16 - 01;13;41;26

I don't know if it's true,

01;13;41;26 - 01;13;44;29

but I think the time has come that people

realize that's how they're thinking.

01;13;45;11 - 01;13;47;08

They appear to be sincere.

01;13;47;08 - 01;13;50;17

They have the money, they have the means,

01;13;50;17 - 01;13;53;21

and increasingly they are trying

to make their dreams a reality.

01;13;54;01 - 01;13;57;01

And that reality may shape

the future of the world.

01;13;57;03 - 01;14;00;03

And before it does,

I think that the world should,

01;14;01;03 - 01;14;02;27

you know, decide to debate this.

01;14;02;27 - 01;14;04;13

Like, Yeah.

01;14;04;13 - 01;14;08;07

him out, here's our critics out

and take this,

01;14;08;13 - 01;14;12;27

like engage in the messy public debate

that I think this moment demands.

01;14;13;26 - 01;14;16;27

I, I agree,

I think it's super, super important.

01;14;16;27 - 01;14;19;28

And I mean, again, as you're talking,

like what comes to my mind is

01;14;20;07 - 01;14;23;09

the difference

between this and electricity is that

01;14;24;00 - 01;14;26;11

electricity

01;14;26;11 - 01;14;27;27

didn't have like, like, sure.

01;14;27;27 - 01;14;31;17

It has a, an impact on the future

of the world, but this really feels like

01;14;32;14 - 01;14;35;19

it could decide

whether or not our species continues.

01;14;35;19 - 01;14;36;00

Right?

01;14;36;00 - 01;14;39;21

Even if you forget the doomsday, like,

it kind of feels like in your description,

01;14;40;23 - 01;14;43;27

we're almost like building our own matrix,

right?

01;14;43;27 - 01;14;47;27

Like we're we're creating

an an isolating environment for ourselves

01;14;48;16 - 01;14;51;24

that's more enjoyable than spending time

with other humans

01;14;52;08 - 01;14;55;19

to the degree where it could completely

isolate us from other humans.

01;14;55;19 - 01;14;59;23

And what does that mean for our ability

to reproduce and continue and to get like,

01;15;00;07 - 01;15;03;11

I'll echo what you said, that

that's like above my pay grade,

01;15;03;17 - 01;15;08;00

but but it seems like it's like, yeah,

maybe we should be talking about that.

01;15;08;15 - 01;15;08;25

Yeah. I mean,

01;15;10;04 - 01;15;13;04

it's it's so strange that

01;15;13;18 - 01;15;16;22

at first I

when I first decided to report about this,

01;15;17;28 - 01;15;20;28

you know, about a year ago,

01;15;20;29 - 01;15;23;29

some of my colleagues worried for me.

01;15;24;07 - 01;15;27;11

They're like, oh, this is going to you're

going to come off like a crazy person.

01;15;27;12 - 01;15;30;12

Like it's like that's like what?

01;15;30;22 - 01;15;32;21

People are going to think

you're a total loon.

01;15;32;21 - 01;15;34;08

And fast forward to a year.

01;15;34;08 - 01;15;34;28

No one has.

01;15;34;28 - 01;15;39;09

I mean, it doesn't appear

people think I'm loon and, like it does

01;15;39;09 - 01;15;43;08

feel like things that even just a year ago

to imagine are now more imaginable.

01;15;43;22 - 01;15;48;13

And it's not my job as a journalist

to try and, like, predict the future.

01;15;48;17 - 01;15;50;24

Like.

01;15;50;24 - 01;15;52;14

The future. We've been so bad at that.

01;15;52;14 - 01;15;53;21

I think we got to quit it.

01;15;53;21 - 01;15;56;21

But I do want to, like,

be the person who, like, goes into a room

01;15;56;21 - 01;15;58;26

and then goes, here's

what's happening in that room.

01;15;58;26 - 01;16;03;11

And like one of the conversations that's

happening in the room of technology,

01;16;03;29 - 01;16;06;29

you know, the metaphorical room,

but also like literal rooms

01;16;07;08 - 01;16;11;03

is like them

having serious conversations about like,

01;16;11;08 - 01;16;15;04

what the caveman would have imagined

01;16;15;20 - 01;16;18;13

his ancestors doing

01;16;18;13 - 01;16;21;29

if they lived in a world

where they had access to a ton of food.

01;16;22;14 - 01;16;25;05

Like, what would we do in a world

where we didn't have to spend

01;16;25;05 - 01;16;28;23

so much of our lives hunting and gathering

and being hunted and hiding in caves?

01;16;28;27 - 01;16;32;07

Well, if we were the dominant species

on the planet and had access

01;16;32;07 - 01;16;35;09

to many resources, what would we do? And

01;16;36;10 - 01;16;37;12

there's just no way that

01;16;37;12 - 01;16;40;19

they would have imagined,

like us betting on

01;16;41;06 - 01;16;44;13

NBA basketball, you know, like

there was no way

01;16;44;13 - 01;16;47;22

they would have imagined,

like all the things that we do

01;16;48;12 - 01;16;52;08

and, and so, like with the acceleration,

as so often say, about that is like,

01;16;52;08 - 01;16;57;14

don't get too fixated on the future

because transformative technology

01;16;57;14 - 01;17;01;15

like this is going to bring about a world

where you're worried about jobs.

01;17;01;29 - 01;17;05;04

None of the things that you and I

are doing for a living, our great

01;17;05;04 - 01;17;09;29

grandparents, would have thought was a job

like my grandfather was a farmer,

01;17;09;29 - 01;17;13;04

my father was an oil man,

and I make podcasts for a living

01;17;13;04 - 01;17;17;17

like we already don't have jobs,

according to like, recent history.

01;17;17;23 - 01;17;19;10

And a lot of these people,

01;17;19;10 - 01;17;21;01

I think, make a compelling case

that, like,

01;17;21;01 - 01;17;24;09

we are still going to find ways

to do things for each other

01;17;24;11 - 01;17;27;11

for some sort of social

and financial reward,

01;17;27;13 - 01;17;31;01

whether or not that takes the form

of capitalism in the future like that.

01;17;31;02 - 01;17;33;17

I think that's really up for grabs

at capitalism's

01;17;33;17 - 01;17;36;15

time, may have to come to an end

if we do have abundant

01;17;36;15 - 01;17;38;12

energy and abundant intelligence,

01;17;38;12 - 01;17;41;10

a lot of them will admit that, too,

even though many of them are capitalists.

01;17;43;21 - 01;17;44;13

So that's like on the one

01;17;44;13 - 01;17;47;13

hand, on the on the dumber side,

they're saying like,

01;17;47;14 - 01;17;50;08

you think you're not properly

scared enough

01;17;50;08 - 01;17;54;28

because you have in your head

these cartoonish ideas of the threat

01;17;55;19 - 01;17;58;13

that we cannot imagine

01;17;58;13 - 01;18;01;24

the threat posed by a true

artificial general intelligence,

01;18;01;24 - 01;18;06;05

just like those cavemen

could not have imagined an atomic bomb,

01;18;07;06 - 01;18;07;10

right?

01;18;07;10 - 01;18;10;26

Of all the dangers that they could

conceive of splitting the atom.

01;18;12;09 - 01;18;15;05

No. No way that they

no way that they have that.

01;18;15;05 - 01;18;18;05

And of course, that's the trajectory

of many, many hundreds of years.

01;18;18;09 - 01;18;21;28

The thing that they're particularly

focused in on is that it appears

01;18;21;28 - 01;18;24;28

as if with this

01;18;24;29 - 01;18;27;25

AI revolution underway,

01;18;27;25 - 01;18;30;11

even if it's 20 years,

01;18;30;11 - 01;18;33;19

the horizon of great change has shrunk.

01;18;34;16 - 01;18;36;17

And, you know,

they'll tell a lot of stories

01;18;36;17 - 01;18;40;17

about previous moments

and different genres of technology.

01;18;41;05 - 01;18;45;17

You know, it's 1903, I believe, when

the Wright brothers get their

01;18;46;27 - 01;18;48;15

their flying contraption

01;18;48;15 - 01;18;51;17

to go 120 yards in Kitty Hawk

01;18;52;08 - 01;18;54;22

after years, by the way of pessimists

saying

01;18;54;22 - 01;18;57;22

it'll be a thousand years

before humans fly like

01;18;58;17 - 01;18;59;14

New York times.

01;18;59;14 - 01;19;01;08

Yeah.

01;19;01;08 - 01;19;03;07

Like, oh, this will never happen.

01;19;03;07 - 01;19;06;03

Like it's a total waste of money.

Human beings weren't meant to fly.

01;19;06;03 - 01;19;07;06

They could never fly.

01;19;07;06 - 01;19;10;06

19 03I believe it's 1903 or 1906.

01;19;10;08 - 01;19;13;08

You get the Wright brothers flying 120ft

01;19;14;06 - 01;19;16;10

by the

01;19;16;10 - 01;19;17;21

by the 1940s.

01;19;17;21 - 01;19;20;24

Like, we're fighting world wars

with airplanes, you know, like that.

01;19;21;09 - 01;19;26;08

But the 1960s were flying a rocket

to the moon like it happened so fast.

01;19;26;16 - 01;19;29;10

There were like

my grandmother was alive for both things,

01;19;29;10 - 01;19;32;23

you know, and they were saying,

we are about to enter an era like that.

01;19;33;03 - 01;19;38;08

And we can't imagine because this one

isn't just a a traveling technology.

01;19;38;13 - 01;19;40;14

You know, this one isn't just a technology

for physically.

01;19;40;14 - 01;19;43;03

This is we're talking about intelligence.

01;19;43;03 - 01;19;46;03

We're talking about the thing

that was at the root of the discovery

01;19;46;03 - 01;19;49;03

of all that and what let's get

whether or not we believe them,

01;19;49;12 - 01;19;52;12

whether or not that they're right,

I don't that's not my job.

01;19;52;14 - 01;19;55;14

My job is to tell you like,

this is how they're thinking.

01;19;55;27 - 01;19;59;26

While many of us are engaged in, like,

what I think they would consider to be

01;19;59;26 - 01;20;04;21

more frivolous debates on the internet,

you know, and whether or not

01;20;04;21 - 01;20;09;16

you, agree with any of them,

they're having an impact on the world.

01;20;09;16 - 01;20;13;19

And like, they may end up

shaping the future without us as a society

01;20;14;09 - 01;20;17;15

really jumping in

to try and have a voice in shaping it.

01;20;20;11 - 01;20;20;29

I love it, Andy.

01;20;20;29 - 01;20;24;02

I got I've got goosebumps from,

from that last little bit.

01;20;24;03 - 01;20;25;27

It's super compelling.

01;20;25;27 - 01;20;29;13

And I feel like we could talk

for, like, the next, like, 4 to 8 hours.

01;20;29;20 - 01;20;31;28

About everything

that we just covered here.

01;20;31;28 - 01;20;33;22

This has been such a fun conversation.

01;20;33;22 - 01;20;36;15

I wanted to say a big

thank you for, you know, telling

01;20;36;15 - 01;20;38;28

so many interesting stories

and sharing so much insight in the space.

01;20;38;28 - 01;20;40;00

It's been awesome.

01;20;40;00 - 01;20;40;29

Yeah. Well, thanks for having me.

01;20;40;29 - 01;20;43;29

And, I appreciate the invitation

of income talk again.

01;20;44;13 - 01;20;45;04

Absolutely.

01;20;45;04 - 01;20;48;04

Maybe get editor in to debate

you next time.

01;20;48;11 - 01;20;51;03

I'd be down.

01;20;51;03 - 01;20;52;15

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01;20;52;15 - 01;20;55;15

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