Identify and Respond to Credible Threats Arising From Global Uncertainty

Traditional risk programs are no match for today’s macro-level volatility and uncertainty. New and unknowable threats are emerging from weak signals, rippling across systems, and demanding quick responses even with incomplete data. Rather than rely on single-future risk models, organizations must broaden their outlook to more flexible multi-future ones. Use this step-by-step framework to evolve your entire organization’s relationship with uncertainty to a dynamic approach that can adapt and respond quickly as conditions change.

Organizations must move beyond reactive mitigation, embedding proactive risk detection, management, and mitigation into their DNA – and leaders across multiple disciplines must become comfortable with acting on limited information. By embracing this dynamic approach, organizations can move from fearing uncertainty to dancing with it, leaving them nimble and future-ready in the face of both certain and unforeseeable risks.

1. A single-future outlook can blind your strategy.

Organizations that treat uncertainty as something to be modeled and managed like traditional risk are setting themselves up to be blindsided. Overreliance on single-future scenarios discourages constructive dissent, overlooks weak signals, and instills false confidence, making it harder to respond to changing circumstances. Foresight demands more than data – it requires the ability to plan when data is scarce and pivot when needed.

2. Readiness requires more than reaction.

When it comes to uncertainty, most organizations are still trapped in reactive cycles, treating disruption as an exception rather than an expectation. Building continuous foresight means embedding early sensing, operational awareness, and dynamic response into working practices across the organization and its technology.

3. Agility before accuracy.

Perfect understanding is a luxury. IT leaders must nurture the ability to make confident decisions amid ambiguity. When new information surfaces, organizations must then be ready to reframe, revise, and redirect without hesitation – success now depends less on certainty and more on adaptability.

Use this step-by-step research to overcome uncertainty with a proactive strategy

Our research provides tools and examples to help you identify the risks and responses needed to deal with macro-uncertainties as well as the capabilities and roles your organization will need to be more proactive and dynamic. Use this step-by-step approach to strengthen your organization’s ability to evaluate emerging threats, uncover root causes of failure, and respond to uncertainty in real-time.

• Scan the horizon for macro uncertainties to identify those with the most potential to affect your organization.
• Conduct a premortem exercise to identify the failure scenarios and risk events that matter most.
• Identify risk events, probability, and impact to chart out possible responses across various organizational units, including IT.
• Develop your key capabilities roadmap to close gaps and identify areas of improvement to foster a dynamic and integrated risk response.