Digital Disruption

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OpenAI, which has never turned a profit,


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is scheduled to burn $218 billion by 2029.

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the business model is not sustainable.

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we can debate exactly when it's

going to completely change the world.

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But it's a when it is not an f.

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And. I has, like, one of these must be

some of the worst marketing in the world.

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Like rooms full of people

bigger than this are literally booing AI.

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And so it feels a bit strange

to be a little bit of an underdog.

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Making the case for AI.

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And by the way,

the case I'm going to make today about it

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not being overhyped,

I'm not making a financial statement.

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I'm not saying everybody invest in

AI today.

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I'm talking about the technology

that the technology

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is going to change the world

and that it's already changing the world.

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So let's start by talking about the now,

and let's talk about your work

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and your world.

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So let's start with your work.

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To me right now,

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what we're seeing in organizations

is that AI is endemic and it's contagious.

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It's endemic and it's contagious.

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What that means is that

people are adopting it

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at an extremely rapid pace,

and they're continuing to use it.

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When you look at employee

productivity metrics, we're seeing that

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when we actually measure

this quantity of work and quality of work

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are both going through the roof.

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We're looking at task completion

increasing by close to 55%,

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by a microsoft's survey,

improving of quality of work by 20 to 40%.

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MIT and Stanford came up with that.

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And 60% of AI users are saying

they've been creating something

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that they couldn't have done a year ago.

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And I can tell you

from my lived experience,

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the just output in volume I'm seeing,

even the last weeks

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and days of slides

that are AI of emails is through the roof.

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And for anyone who I work with, I see you.

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I see your

AI content that you're sending me.

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The second piece here is the

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functional transformation AI is doing

has already begun right in it.

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70% of IT departments are already using

AI, 55% of security,

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and nearly half of all developers

are using AI right now.

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And in the business, it's not far behind.

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50% of customer service teams are using

AI sales and marketing and HR,

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both at 40 plus percent.

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And the numbers are just growing.

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Now, when I look outside the business,

it's what's already happening right now.

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It's already being used

for frontier science, right?

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We're hearing about, 

you know, mRNA vaccines.

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We're, for Covid.

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It was a key piece

in getting the vaccine out.

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And Bob Lee just yesterday

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said that AI is already being used

for the chemotherapy plan for his wife.

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It's changing the world.

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There's another story.

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I love that I read about this

a little bit less popular,

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but AI is being used now to improve 

weather system

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forecasting, and it's improved

forecasting by about 20%.

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And this is saving lives

because if you can more accurately

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predict extreme weather,

you can tell people to evacuate.

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You can give them the right information

in a timely way.

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And it has dramatic human impact.

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The other piece here that

you may have seen is autonomous vehicles.

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Right. These are powered by AI. Right now.

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Waymo is already going to be in 15 U.S.

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cities by the end of the year.

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And by the way,

I don't know if you saw this

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outside the hotel, but

we've got autonomous vehicles this year

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for the first time in Las Vegas

being deployed all over the city.

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It's happening right now

and it's changing our lives.

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And already we're starting to see

industries change whole industries.

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The design industry has changed overnight.

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The legal industry has changed overnight.

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I could go on and on, but let's talk

a little bit about what comes next.

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So in your work the tech enterprise

is going to be happening to us.

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Right. The rewiring is already starting.

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It's as I said,

it's endemic and it's contagious.

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And the cool thing about a genetic

that you may have already heard

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at this conference

is that there's a recipe for it.

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Right?

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We've been walking members

through it, IT leaders through it,

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and we can start to build it for you

in four days.

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And we're seeing people tell us we're

getting 100 grand of value in four days.

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9.5 out of ten the recipe exists.

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It's already beginning,

and it'll grow from there.

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And then I'm most excited about true

differentiators coming from AI.

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So if you think about what happened

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when we moved to the internet, as Joel

said, when the web came, when we moved to,

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you know, digital product offerings,

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we're already starting to see this, and

it's only going to unlock more and more.

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And then in the world,

AI is becoming a utility, right?

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This notion of being able

to have intelligence on demand that's

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unmetered, it's already started and it's

changing the way that we do everything.

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And then the other piece, you know,

I could give you 100 examples for this.

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I'm going to try and keep it brief.

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Health care is the one

that's personally most exciting to me.

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And if you're in this session

I did earlier,

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we're already starting to

look at how doctors

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can use this to become more efficient.

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And, you know, we're seeing when we do

trials.

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I reduce burnout in doctors by ten points.

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And if we can get better accuracy

in the way we're diagnosing,

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studies have shown already that

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even catching an additional by using AI,

you can catch an additional 6 million

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diagnostic errors in the US per year

that prevents 200,000 deaths, right?

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200,000 more disabilities.

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On top of that, more personalization,

broader access.

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This is a sea change.

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It's extremely exciting.

And I think there's no two ways about it.

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And with that,

I will pass it over to my opponent.

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Thank you very much, Jeff, and looking

forward to hearing from you now, Jeremy.

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Well, so when they asked me if I wanted to

do this debate, they framed it this way.

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They said,

would you like to tell your boss Jeff's

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my boss, he's wrong in

front of thousands of people.

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And I said, I can't think of a better way

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to spend a day alive,

so let's have this conversation.

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If you don't work in

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enterprise technology, you can skip ahead

or take a quick brain connection.

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But if you do.

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Check it out at the link below,

and don't forget to like and subscribe!

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I agree broadly that AI is very exciting

and very interesting,

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but I have a

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slightly different perspective,

and I think I have a sneaking suspicion

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that many people in the audience

will agree with me.

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Don't worry everyone, this is a safe space

so the Emperor has no clothes.

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And one time I pitched actually

a tearaway suit and I was going to anyway

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vetoed.

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Somebody said, you can do that

at a different conference.

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So I've got a few points on this

that I think you all need to hear.

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Number one, many people who work with

I do not like it.

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If you do a poll of Americans, many of you

in the room are Americans, some are not.

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50% of people

have a negative opinion of it

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and that AI has huge awareness.

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Everybody and their grandma

and their son and their dog is using this,

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is familiar with it,

and they do not like it.

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There are very few things

you can get 50% of people to agree on

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across the entire country.

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That's a Pew report. You can look into it.

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People don't like it.

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So if it's so great,

why do people hate it?

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That's number one.

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Number two,

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the business model is not sustainable.

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Hey, Jeff,

can I borrow $300 billion from you?

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You can just give it to me backstage.

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Don't worry.

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I'll funnel it back to you via Rob.

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And then you can use it

to buy something from me.

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Look how much value we just created.

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Thank you, thank you.

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In this example

Rob's Nvidia I'm OpenAI Jeff.

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So Oracle like

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I mean come on

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come on.

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This isn't a sustainable business model.

Hey Jeff.

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Hey Jeff.

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So I'm I'm debating.

And so I got to go after him.

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Have you heard of Tesla?

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Tell me more about Tesla.

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I'm going to tell you more.

I wrote this down.

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I didn't want to get it wrong.

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Tesla first turned a profit in 2018

after burning $9.3 billion.

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That's a lot of money.

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It's less than you're lending

me, but it's a lot of money.

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Uber famous venture capital, darling

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burned $18.2 billion

before it eventually turned a profit.

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OpenAI, which has never turned a profit,

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is scheduled to burn $218 billion by 2029.

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It's a little under hyped.

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I think there's a little more hype

that we can build into that.

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So I know you didn't

want to talk about the financials,

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but it's only works

if we can actually pay for it.

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Many people who work with

AI say they're saving little to no time.

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I showed a chart yesterday.

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If you ask executives

if they're saving time,

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you know, 20% of them say

they're saving 12 hours a week.

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If you ask people who work at like the

working level who don't have any reports,

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if they're saving time with AI,

40% of them say they're saving nothing.

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And I know you quoted that Microsoft study

about productivity.

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And it's funny

because I went to a Toyota dealership

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and I took a quiz on what car

I should buy, and they said a Toyota.

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Come on, you know,

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thank you, thank you.

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I worked hard on that.

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We focus group that.

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We hear a lot about AI automating

the boring stuff.

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The boring stuff is how we train juniors.

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No juniors today, no seniors tomorrow.

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It can be an individually rational thing,

but bad for society.

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I saw one of my colleagues

talk about the diamond shaped organization

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because we cut the bottom out.

Is that actually a good thing?

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Does anybody actually want that?

I don't know that I do.

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I think it's overhyped for now.

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It's not even cheaper.

Like we're going to save money.

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Are you a mystery organization?

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This is reported,

I think, in Politico or Axios.

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They burned $500 million

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in AI credits in one month

because they forgot to put guardrails up.

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I haven't seen any mega caps

doing amazing things,

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so I think some of that

money might have been wasted.

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It's not even cheaper.

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Imagine paying more money

for what is often

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a worse output.

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And then finally, this is

maybe a more philosophical point here.

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Dehumanizing interaction

isn't a net benefit.

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I want to show of hands.

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Who here likes getting a chat bot

when they need support?

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No, I don't see.

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Do you see any hands?

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Jeff guy look that way now.

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I don't see any hands.

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Nobody wants this.

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The people pushing this

aren't pushing it for them.

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They're pushing it for you.

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If you get a robot that says,

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I really feel your pain,

you know the next agent will be with you.

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That's not exciting.

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That's not a good thing.

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You ever heard of a Waldorf school?

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Lots of wealthy people

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send their kids to Waldorf schools

that don't use technology at all.

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And guess what?

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Before I pass it on,

because I know we've got to,

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you know,

have a little bit of a discussion.

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I mean, the reality

that I'm seeing on the ground

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is that there's a lot of people out there

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who are very excited

about this technology in the abstract,

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but the excitement

they have isn't concrete.

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And to me,

that's the definition of being overhyped.

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So I'll leave it at that.

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And I think maybe I'll click to this next

slide here and let's have a discussion.

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So Rob yes has that back to you.

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All right.

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Well Jeff, you've got some time

to this position there.

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Jeremy is clearly won the hearts of the

people by the interaction.

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Thank you.

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But but but but but hang on, hang on, hang

on, hang on. And

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anytime there's

a generational transformational technology

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or change in, in our world,

it will be met with

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maybe some level of skepticism,

but there's some value.

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And you talked about some of the value.

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So I'm interested in hearing

some of your points.

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Is, is something that, has been overhyped

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or is there some value out there that we,

we need, we can't lose sight of too?

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Yeah.

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And I'd like to remind the room

and Jeremy, my opponent,

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that we're not actually debating

who's the best comedian.

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Right.

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Well, that was a good line.

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So you might have if.

That was what was on the ballot.

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You know, I might be in real trouble,

but I want to talk about AI.

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And, you know, even in the stats

you presented, a lot of them

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say things like,

well, 50% of people aren't

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really liking it, or 50% of people

aren't getting a lot of benefit.

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But you know what that means? 50% are.

00;12;20;22 - 00;12;23;09

And that is transformational, right?

00;12;23;09 - 00;12;26;19

For a new technology

that's still in its infancy, for people

00;12;26;19 - 00;12;27;16

to be using it

00;12;27;16 - 00;12;30;24

and getting real time savings out of it,

I think that's extremely exciting.

00;12;31;00 - 00;12;33;19

And as I said, we're seeing more of it,

not less of it.

00;12;33;19 - 00;12;37;08

I don't see anyone who's saying,

you know what, I used to use AI,

00;12;37;09 - 00;12;39;06

but I don't use it anymore.

00;12;39;06 - 00;12;41;15

And that to me is extremely telling.

00;12;41;15 - 00;12;44;28

This is a trend that more people

are getting on and they're getting off of.

00;12;45;02 - 00;12;48;02

And that to me says we're going

only in one direction here.

00;12;48;06 - 00;12;50;29

In terms of it not being cheaper,

00;12;50;29 - 00;12;53;23

you know, that's every technology, right?

00;12;53;23 - 00;12;55;17

Who remembers when we were all going

to move to the cloud

00;12;55;17 - 00;12;57;20

because it was going to save us

money, right?

00;12;57;20 - 00;12;59;27

Oh, what a sad time that was. Right.

00;12;59;27 - 00;13;02;11

But that doesn't mean

that it's not the future.

00;13;02;11 - 00;13;03;25

It doesn't mean that it's overhyped.

00;13;03;25 - 00;13;05;22

It means that it unlocks new capabilities.

00;13;05;22 - 00;13;08;07

We can do things with it

that we never could before.

00;13;08;07 - 00;13;12;22

And so I don't think, you know,

that really bears a lot of, fruit there.

00;13;12;26 - 00;13;15;13

And honestly,

all of this comes into the question of

00;13;16;18 - 00;13;17;28

when Jeremy makes his point.

00;13;17;28 - 00;13;21;16

I still want to ask you,

are you going to adopt AI or not?

00;13;21;16 - 00;13;23;12

Are you going to invest in it?

Are you going to learn it?

00;13;23;12 - 00;13;24;15

Are you going to tell your boss,

00;13;24;15 - 00;13;27;15

I hey, I went to this conference

and there was this hilarious guy

00;13;27;17 - 00;13;30;16

and he said,

he said, don't worry about AI.

00;13;30;16 - 00;13;32;20

You don't you don't have to adopt AI.

00;13;32;20 - 00;13;35;19

And you say, boss,

I'm listening to the funny man.

00;13;35;26 - 00;13;38;26

No, I for this organization.

00;13;39;06 - 00;13;40;11

But. So you think I'm fine.

00;13;40;11 - 00;13;42;05

Thank you. Yeah.

00;13;42;05 - 00;13;44;06

That's going

that can go in your performance of Alibaba

00;13;44;06 - 00;13;47;06

that that I will actually write for me

by the way.

00;13;47;08 - 00;13;51;05

And you'll probably use AI to read I

there will be a point about it being funny

00;13;51;05 - 00;13;52;24

and we'll see what I think about that.

00;13;52;24 - 00;13;55;03

But I just want to be really clear.

00;13;56;10 - 00;13;58;06

You will all go back.

00;13;58;06 - 00;14;01;07

And if you're not working on an AI plan,

you will.

00;14;01;07 - 00;14;02;04

And by the way, I don't know that there's

00;14;02;04 - 00;14;05;03

anyone in this room who's saying,

you know what? No, AI is not for me.

00;14;05;03 - 00;14;06;03

Because you can't.

00;14;06;03 - 00;14;09;04

Because we all recognize

that it is the future,

00;14;09;07 - 00;14;13;06

and we can debate exactly when it's

going to completely change the world.

00;14;13;11 - 00;14;16;13

But it's a when it is not an f.

00;14;17;07 - 00;14;17;28

Okay.

00;14;17;28 - 00;14;21;09

So I mean, I love your point, Steph,

and not just because you're my boss.

00;14;21;09 - 00;14;23;15

There's some there's some good points

there.

00;14;23;15 - 00;14;25;03

I will say

there's there's a couple of things.

00;14;25;03 - 00;14;28;26

First of all, I love your cloud example

because anybody in here have been in it

00;14;29;01 - 00;14;29;18

for a long time.

00;14;29;18 - 00;14;32;18

Remember when the cloud sort of first

became a thing and I see some hands up?

00;14;32;22 - 00;14;36;04

I mean, if we were having this,

the cloud is overhyped conversation.

00;14;36;04 - 00;14;37;20

I think we're kind of on the same side.

00;14;37;20 - 00;14;40;14

It was overhyped

when it first came out. Right.

00;14;40;14 - 00;14;42;22

It was expensive.

00;14;42;22 - 00;14;45;07

It was a difficult thing to migrate to.

00;14;45;07 - 00;14;47;04

It wasn't right for every situation.

00;14;47;04 - 00;14;48;29

But the cloud sort of eventually

found its spot.

00;14;48;29 - 00;14;53;02

If you came in and said the cloud is going

to fundamentally transform

00;14;53;02 - 00;14;55;07

the world and everyone's

going to adopt it.

00;14;55;07 - 00;14;56;26

Yeah, I would agree that it is overhyped.

00;14;56;26 - 00;14;59;23

I'm not saying that AI is inherently bad.

00;14;59;23 - 00;15;02;25

I'm simply saying that

the amount of excitement

00;15;02;28 - 00;15;05;25

that it's ginned up

in a very particular corner

00;15;05;25 - 00;15;11;16

of the internet, LinkedIn, I think, is

dramatically overstating the real value.

00;15;11;16 - 00;15;13;22

And like I've got a good example

here for you.

00;15;13;22 - 00;15;16;08

Did you guys know that alphabet,

the parent company of Google,

00;15;16;08 - 00;15;18;19

is actually diluting its shareholders?

00;15;18;19 - 00;15;19;14

Anybody hear about this?

00;15;20;20 - 00;15;23;10

For the first time since it went public,

00;15;23;10 - 00;15;26;16

alphabet has issued new equity $85

00;15;26;16 - 00;15;30;13

billion in new equity

because they need to pay

00;15;30;19 - 00;15;33;23

for these massive data centers that I use

00;15;33;23 - 00;15;36;23

to make memes of Jeff.

00;15;38;08 - 00;15;39;13

For the first time, they can't.

00;15;39;13 - 00;15;43;26

And I read a JPMorgan Chase

article on the AI bubble

00;15;43;26 - 00;15;44;27

a little while back

00;15;44;27 - 00;15;47;06

and it said, don't worry,

this is nothing like the dotcom bubble

00;15;47;06 - 00;15;48;26

because it's being funded by companies

00;15;48;26 - 00;15;51;25

that can afford it

out of their free cash flow.

00;15;51;25 - 00;15;54;13

I guess not.

00;15;54;13 - 00;15;55;18

So like

00;15;55;18 - 00;15;58;19

if Google, one of the most profitable

companies in the world,

00;15;58;19 - 00;16;02;11

is dipping into a reserve

that it has never had to dip into before,

00;16;02;15 - 00;16;06;17

if OpenAI is at $1 trillion,

almost trillion dollar valuation,

00;16;06;17 - 00;16;08;16

if anthropic is at $1 trillion

00;16;08;16 - 00;16;10;19

valuation,

and people are still coming to me

00;16;10;19 - 00;16;13;22

and saying this, I think is really

interesting, what should I use it for?

00;16;14;22 - 00;16;15;04

That, to

00;16;15;04 - 00;16;18;26

me, is the textbook definition

of being overhyped.

00;16;19;00 - 00;16;23;17

And so I think you got to vote for me

if you think that AI is, you know,

00;16;23;28 - 00;16;24;25

pretty cool.

00;16;24;25 - 00;16;26;27

But like we're still trying

to figure out how to use it.

00;16;26;27 - 00;16;29;06

You know, maybe we'll

summarize and service desk tickets,

00;16;29;06 - 00;16;33;13

you know, optimize some some,

you know, deployments to AWS or whatever.

00;16;33;13 - 00;16;35;25

But I don't think it's worth well,

00;16;35;25 - 00;16;38;25

how much market cap

do you think AI is added to the S&P 500?

00;16;39;04 - 00;16;42;10

You know, $10 trillion, $12 trillion?

00;16;42;10 - 00;16;45;17

Think about that number next time

you make a meme using nano banana,

00;16;45;17 - 00;16;48;17

which is a silly name, by the way.

00;16;48;23 - 00;16;50;26

So I want to

I want to reiterate that we're talking

00;16;50;26 - 00;16;52;11

about the hype of the technology.

00;16;52;11 - 00;16;54;13

Yeah, not the companies

making the technology.

00;16;54;13 - 00;16;56;10

You mentioned cloud.

I'll come back to that in a minute.

00;16;56;10 - 00;16;58;03

But talking about dot.com,

00;16;58;03 - 00;17;01;23

there were a ton of companies

that went bust during the.com boom.

00;17;01;28 - 00;17;04;16

And we very likely we'll see that again.

00;17;04;16 - 00;17;04;22

Yeah.

00;17;04;22 - 00;17;08;05

But this company is going bust mean

that we're not moving to the internet,

00;17;08;05 - 00;17;10;27

that we're not moving to digital. Now.

Of course it doesn't.

00;17;10;27 - 00;17;12;27

It is an innovative phase.

00;17;12;27 - 00;17;14;23

There are going to be winners and losers.

00;17;14;23 - 00;17;16;29

We're not betting on specific horses here.

00;17;16;29 - 00;17;20;22

The reason that these companies

are spending so much money on this

00;17;20;26 - 00;17;22;11

is because of demand.

00;17;22;11 - 00;17;26;29

It's because of people like Jeremy who

demand to make memes of me as their boss.

00;17;26;29 - 00;17;29;12

It's because we're all using it

for work, right?

00;17;29;12 - 00;17;31;03

Because we're doing things

that are a genetic.

00;17;31;03 - 00;17;35;04

But the difference to me

between a technology like cloud

00;17;35;04 - 00;17;40;04

and a technology like AI is cloud

is exciting for people in this room.

00;17;40;14 - 00;17;44;04

AI is exciting from everyone to,

you know, the kids

00;17;44;04 - 00;17;47;09

who are making their own t shirt

companies, to the researchers

00;17;47;09 - 00;17;51;20

who are using it to come up with new 

vaccines and treatments and change lives.

00;17;52;03 - 00;17;54;26

Everyone is using AI.

00;17;54;26 - 00;17;56;00

Everyone.

00;17;56;00 - 00;17;58;27

And it's only getting better

and only more people are using it.

00;17;58;27 - 00;18;01;19

So these arguments, they just don't

really hold water in my. Books.

00;18;01;19 - 00;18;03;02

So everyone is using it.

00;18;03;02 - 00;18;07;02

That's because Google says

we're changing search to be AI.

00;18;07;07 - 00;18;10;07

We just raise $85 billion to do it.

00;18;10;16 - 00;18;11;17

You know what that did?

00;18;11;17 - 00;18;15;06

It drove DuckDuckGo installs up 70%

00;18;15;06 - 00;18;19;06

the next day because people see this

and they don't actually like it.

00;18;19;06 - 00;18;22;09

I mean, there's

there's there's sort of the usability case

00;18;22;09 - 00;18;25;17

sometimes that Google summary can be

pretty useful at the top of the page.

00;18;25;17 - 00;18;28;27

You know, we can acknowledge that

AI is actually pretty good at taking

00;18;28;27 - 00;18;32;05

big pieces of text and making them

slightly smaller pieces of text.

00;18;32;05 - 00;18;34;05

$10 trillion in market cap.

00;18;35;20 - 00;18;36;19

But like,

00;18;36;19 - 00;18;40;12

is that worth

the hollowing out of the entire internet?

00;18;40;12 - 00;18;42;25

Because there's now

no incentive for people to create stuff,

00;18;42;25 - 00;18;44;20

because Google's not sharing links anymore

00;18;44;20 - 00;18;46;20

and they're sucking up

all the advertising revenue.

00;18;46;20 - 00;18;48;19

Like,

I'm not worried about Terminator, Jeff.

00;18;48;19 - 00;18;50;01

I'm worried about Wall-E.

00;18;50;01 - 00;18;53;12

You know, that's the direction

I see us going with this, right?

00;18;53;12 - 00;19;00;06

So if I, you know, can truly abstract away

all of the really boring, drudgery type

00;19;00;06 - 00;19;05;00

stuff that we do, it

creates an amorphous mush of content

00;19;05;00 - 00;19;08;00

that's out there that these big companies

can sort of sell back to us.

00;19;08;10 - 00;19;11;14

And to me,

that's not a future that I'm excited for.

00;19;11;14 - 00;19;13;26

Like who here says,

oh, novels should be written by?

00;19;13;26 - 00;19;17;21

I probably nobody,

you know, I'm really looking forward

00;19;17;21 - 00;19;21;17

to AI movies, you know, probably

nobody I'm really looking forward to.

00;19;21;17 - 00;19;25;11

I you know, doing the work

that my kids would do in their first job

00;19;25;11 - 00;19;28;11

at a consultancy like Deloitte

or something, probably nobody.

00;19;28;16 - 00;19;31;09

And yet it's being sold

as this incredibly valuable thing.

00;19;31;09 - 00;19;33;17

And I'll add one more point

before I move on.

00;19;33;17 - 00;19;36;16

You know, I was listening to your points

and as well, research.

00;19;36;16 - 00;19;39;16

I don't mean that in a glib way,

but like it reads a lot

00;19;39;17 - 00;19;43;02

like a white paper about blockchain

or the metaverse from 2021.

00;19;44;01 - 00;19;44;25

And like

00;19;44;25 - 00;19;48;00

the march of technology is not inevitable.

00;19;48;00 - 00;19;49;23

Just because we get better

at doing something

00;19;49;23 - 00;19;51;16

doesn't mean we should do that thing.

00;19;51;16 - 00;19;54;04

VR is better than it's ever

been. Still sucks.

00;19;54;04 - 00;19;55;05

You know,

00;19;55;05 - 00;19;57;12

blockchain

was never going to change the world,

00;19;57;12 - 00;19;59;27

but we still talked about it

like it would because there's a

00;19;59;27 - 00;20;03;13

there's a select group of people

who stand next to what

00;20;03;13 - 00;20;06;13

they perceive to be big piles of money

and yell loudly about it.

00;20;06;22 - 00;20;10;10

So maybe before I pass it back to you,

Jeff, I wrote down a one liner here.

00;20;10;10 - 00;20;11;11

I'm really proud of this one.

00;20;11;11 - 00;20;12;00

You ready?

00;20;12;00 - 00;20;15;03

I'm ready. Jeremy AI is solving poverty.

00;20;15;03 - 00;20;18;03

One influencer

and venture capitalist at a time.

00;20;24;15 - 00;20;27;18

It's actually it's actually, in some ways

very nice for me that I feel like.

00;20;27;18 - 00;20;30;20

Jeremy,

you're actually making my point for me,

00;20;30;27 - 00;20;35;20

which is that you're saying

I don't like where AI is taking us, right?

00;20;35;28 - 00;20;40;06

Because by saying that, you're actually

acknowledging that it is taking us there.

00;20;40;08 - 00;20;43;11

I'm not making the argument that it's

going to be all sunshine and roses

00;20;43;11 - 00;20;47;00

and everything will be better,

and we'll live in a utopia created by AI.

00;20;47;07 - 00;20;48;28

There's lots of folks that believe that.

00;20;48;28 - 00;20;53;03

There's lots of folks that will tell you

that, coincidentally, they all lie, right?

00;20;54;03 - 00;20;55;20

That's not the argument that I'm making.

00;20;55;20 - 00;20;58;18

What I'm making is that

the change is happening.

00;20;58;18 - 00;21;01;19

Yeah, we don't even know

exactly what it's going to look like.

00;21;01;19 - 00;21;04;10

We don't need people using AI

for absolutely everything.

00;21;04;10 - 00;21;07;10

If there's use cases for

AI that people don't like,

00;21;07;17 - 00;21;08;28

that makes complete sense to me.

00;21;08;28 - 00;21;11;07

We're still figuring it out,

but we are using it.

00;21;11;07 - 00;21;12;12

We're using it for a ton of things.

00;21;12;12 - 00;21;15;12

It has a lot of good uses, and

00;21;16;04 - 00;21;16;24

we're getting there.

00;21;16;24 - 00;21;19;00

And so when you say,

I'm worried about this future,

00;21;19;00 - 00;21;21;16

you're worried about it

because it is happening.

00;21;21;16 - 00;21;25;00

It's inevitable

in some way at a transformational scale.

00;21;25;00 - 00;21;26;22

So thank you for arguing my point.

00;21;26;22 - 00;21;28;05

So not bad.

00;21;28;05 - 00;21;29;04

I got to give you that.

00;21;29;04 - 00;21;31;10

I will say this.

I got a couple of points here.

00;21;31;10 - 00;21;34;26

I think the real test is if we go forward

and we look at the future

00;21;35;02 - 00;21;36;08

that I sort of laid out

00;21;36;08 - 00;21;38;18

and that Jeff is, I'm not going to say

you agreed with it, but,

00;21;38;18 - 00;21;40;27

you know, we're talking about

AI having a real impact on

00;21;40;27 - 00;21;44;20

like the internet and search, for example,

will people look back

00;21;44;20 - 00;21;48;01

if that comes true and say, wow,

that sure lived up to the hype.

00;21;48;27 - 00;21;50;24

Probably not.

00;21;50;24 - 00;21;53;00

If we, you know, create the dead

internet, right?

00;21;53;00 - 00;21;55;01

And you've used other examples.

You mentioned health care.

00;21;55;01 - 00;21;56;00

I want to come back to that.

00;21;56;00 - 00;22;00;09

Obviously we've heard some some pretty

inspiring stories here, but at scale,

00;22;00;09 - 00;22;02;23

I mean, this is actually been

quite a tough business to penetrate.

00;22;02;23 - 00;22;05;10

Anybody remember IBM's Watson.

00;22;06;12 - 00;22;07;14

Yeah.

00;22;07;14 - 00;22;09;10

Leading voice in AI.

00;22;09;10 - 00;22;13;13

They they won on jeopardy in like 2011

00;22;13;13 - 00;22;14;29

that Watson

was going to take over the world.

00;22;14;29 - 00;22;17;04

It was literally the go to name in AI.

00;22;17;04 - 00;22;19;21

And then they pivoted into health care.

00;22;19;21 - 00;22;22;24

That was that was how

they were going to bring this to market.

00;22;22;24 - 00;22;24;10

And they did pivot into health care.

00;22;24;10 - 00;22;27;10

And it went about as well as you

probably think it did.

00;22;27;16 - 00;22;31;21

And IBM CEO asked about

why Watson isn't a household name in AI.

00;22;31;21 - 00;22;33;14

And he said,

because we went into health care.

00;22;33;14 - 00;22;35;04

So even the people who are building

00;22;35;04 - 00;22;39;00

these models are actually pretty skeptical

about that particular use case.

00;22;39;00 - 00;22;41;24

So I think the test that you guys

need to apply

00;22;41;24 - 00;22;45;04

when you're voting in a few minutes, it's

very important to me that you vote,

00;22;45;07 - 00;22;49;02

you know, one person,

one vote, the test that you need to apply

00;22;49;27 - 00;22;53;11

is, do you think that the future

that I painted

00;22;53;11 - 00;22;56;28

and that Jeff painted is something

that people will look back on and say,

00;22;57;07 - 00;22;59;12

that was hyped

and it lived up to the hype,

00;22;59;12 - 00;23;02;28

and I just don't think,

given the scale of the promise,

00;23;03;08 - 00;23;08;21

given the potential negative consequences,

given the lack of adoption of key

00;23;08;21 - 00;23;12;15

tools, Copilot is only adopted

by 20 million of the 450 million Microsoft

00;23;12;15 - 00;23;13;21

365 subscribers.

00;23;13;21 - 00;23;15;28

That's a slam dunk.

Just go sign up for an E7.

00;23;15;28 - 00;23;18;12

You got yourself. Some

AI people aren't doing it.

00;23;18;12 - 00;23;23;06

The adoption isn't actually at that level,

and we're in the VC funded stage.

00;23;23;22 - 00;23;26;13

This is Uber in 2015

when rides were cheap.

00;23;26;13 - 00;23;27;24

In five years, it's going to be Uber.

00;23;27;24 - 00;23;30;24

Now, when rides are shockingly expensive,

00;23;30;28 - 00;23;32;22

are people going to be using it

at that level?

00;23;32;22 - 00;23;33;04

I don't know.

00;23;34;10 - 00;23;34;18

If the

00;23;34;18 - 00;23;37;18

debate we were having was,

is copilot overhyped?

00;23;37;18 - 00;23;40;18

I would be in real trouble.

00;23;40;25 - 00;23;43;25

With apologies

to anyone from Microsoft in the room,

00;23;44;01 - 00;23;45;08

but that's not what we're talking about.

00;23;45;08 - 00;23;46;15

We're talking about AI.

00;23;46;15 - 00;23;49;15

And when you look into the future,

I want to ask you,

00;23;49;17 - 00;23;51;05

is there going to be less AI?

00;23;51;05 - 00;23;52;22

Is there going to be more AI?

00;23;52;22 - 00;23;55;23

Is there going to be substantially

more AI, or is there going to be so much

00;23;55;23 - 00;23;59;19

AI that it's almost inconceivable for us

to even answer that question right now?

00;23;59;26 - 00;24;00;24

And for me, it's

00;24;00;24 - 00;24;04;19

pretty obvious that we're leaning closest

to the last option I had there.

00;24;04;27 - 00;24;07;13

It's going to be a level

that we haven't seen.

00;24;07;13 - 00;24;10;16

It's always difficult to look back

at things and say, was it worth the hype?

00;24;10;20 - 00;24;11;29

Was it not worth the hype?

00;24;11;29 - 00;24;14;29

But it's penetrating

every single thing that we're doing.

00;24;14;29 - 00;24;18;27

And I do want to briefly touch

on the hospital piece, because I had

00;24;19;06 - 00;24;23;00

a hospital CIO up here, a CTO actually 

just about two hours ago,

00;24;23;00 - 00;24;27;21

who's already using AI to free up

substantial resources from doctors.

00;24;27;21 - 00;24;29;08

Right. This is happening right now.

00;24;29;08 - 00;24;33;09

If that's happening in hospitals right

now, imagine what we'll be doing in

00;24;33;09 - 00;24;34;00

five years.

00;24;34;00 - 00;24;36;00

In ten years, in 20 years.

00;24;36;00 - 00;24;39;00

As we said,

I don't think this is a matter of if.

00;24;39;07 - 00;24;41;00

I know it's a matter of when.

00;24;41;00 - 00;24;44;03

And we can't even begin

to scratch the surface of what

00;24;44;03 - 00;24;45;14

this is going to happen with this.

00;24;45;14 - 00;24;49;15

It's like when we first got electricity,

being able to predict the internet,

00;24;49;15 - 00;24;51;22

we have no idea.

But this is going to be a utility.

00;24;51;22 - 00;24;53;25

This is going to be a foundation

that we build on.

00;24;53;25 - 00;24;55;24

We're already starting to see it.

00;24;55;24 - 00;24;58;24

And you're hearing people

all over the place say,

00;24;59;03 - 00;25;00;25

we can't even predict more than a year

00;25;00;25 - 00;25;03;02

or two out

because we don't know where this is going.

00;25;03;02 - 00;25;06;02

That's the only future I can see

at this point. Wow.

00;25;06;15 - 00;25;07;22

Well, yeah.

00;25;12;22 - 00;25;14;08

I want to

make sure we leave a little bit of time.

00;25;14;08 - 00;25;15;13

We're getting down to the last

00;25;15;13 - 00;25;19;15

really seconds here in terms

of, our time, on stage.

00;25;19;15 - 00;25;21;15

But can we get the pull back up?

00;25;21;15 - 00;25;24;03

We're going to ask, our audience,

00;25;24;03 - 00;25;27;03

our attendees

00;25;27;15 - 00;25;28;08

agree.

00;25;28;08 - 00;25;32;06

We heard from two experts to recognize

00;25;32;06 - 00;25;35;05

world class experts, share their insights.

00;25;35;17 - 00;25;39;14

And, the question to you, is I overhyped?

00;25;40;05 - 00;25;43;02

Agree or disagree?

00;25;43;02 - 00;25;45;23

I'm not liking that.

00;25;45;23 - 00;25;48;23

Down.

00;25;50;06 - 00;25;51;17

Thank you everyone for voting.

00;25;51;17 - 00;25;53;20

We have I voted stickers outside.

00;25;53;20 - 00;25;56;08

Yeah.

00;25;56;08 - 00;25;58;02

All right.

00;25;58;02 - 00;26;00;23

And then 15 seconds

00;26;00;23 - 00;26;03;29

or less, your response

to seeing the results?

00;26;04;01 - 00;26;07;02

Well, it seems like most folks agree

that AI is overhyped.

00;26;07;02 - 00;26;09;19

And I will just say that doesn't mean

that it's not good or useful

00;26;09;19 - 00;26;13;15

in some context, but it does mean that

you can't blindly apply AI.

00;26;13;15 - 00;26;15;00

It's not like Flex Seal

00;26;15;00 - 00;26;18;00

that you just slap on everything

that's giving you a problem.

00;26;18;10 - 00;26;20;09

You need to have a problem to solve.

00;26;20;09 - 00;26;22;27

Solve it with AI. If I is the right tool.

00;26;22;27 - 00;26;26;14

I just want to confess that we decided

who would take each side with a coin

00;26;26;14 - 00;26;27;20

flip before we did this.

00;26;28;25 - 00;26;31;02

So as passionate as we were,

00;26;31;02 - 00;26;34;15

this is performative for everybody, and

I think we both fall somewhere in between.

00;26;34;29 - 00;26;35;22

Awesome.

00;26;35;22 - 00;26;38;06

All right, ladies and gentlemen,

put your hands together.

00;26;38;06 - 00;26;38;29

Let's give Jeff.

00;26;38;29 - 00;26;43;17

Nielsen and Jerry Roberts

a round of applause.

00;26;44;04 - 00;26;44;24

Great job.

00;26;44;24 - 00;26;47;24

Congratulations. Well thank

00;26;48;03 - 00;26;52;06

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