Digital Disruption
with Geoff Nielson
Our Guest Bill Reichert Discusses
The AI Bubble Isn't the Dot-Com Bubble. It's Worse.
Are we in an AI bubble? Veteran Silicon Valley investor Bill Reichert says yes, but that doesn’t mean the AI revolution is slowing down.
In this episode we sit down with Bill Reichert, General Partner at Pegasus Ventures, to discuss the unprecedented investment pouring into AI, why many AI startups will fail, and where the next wave of innovation could emerge. This conversation highlights everything from data centers and quantum computing to China’s growing technology ecosystem and what businesses need to do to innovate and compete.
Bill also shares his “Yellow Jacket Paradox,” raising a bigger question about the future of AI: If biological intelligence can accomplish so much with so little energy, could a fundamentally new AI architecture eventually disrupt today’s LLMs, data centers, and AI leaders?
Subscribe and follow for more conversations with the world’s leading thinkers on AI, technology, innovation, and digital transformation.
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Certainly we are in some form of bubble.
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Certainly there is too much capital
chasing, too many possibilities
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and there will be a lot of tears
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somewhere down the line.
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This is a show about the future of tech
and the future of work.
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I'm Jeff Nielsen and today
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we're diving into
AI as an engine for business innovation.
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My guest today is Bill Reichert,
general partner
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at Pegasus Ventures
and a 20 year veteran technology investor.
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Bill is what I
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consider an AI startup whisperer
and one of the best people on the planet.
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To provide the inside scoop
on what we need to know about
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the innovative tech
coming out of Silicon Valley right now.
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I want to ask him how much faith he has
in the current crop of AI startups,
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where he thinks we'll see the next wave
of cutting edge technologies, and what we
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can all learn about how to actually build
the next generation of tech.
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Let's find out.
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Well, thanks so much for joining today.
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Really excited to have you here.
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Look, you've been a tech investor for you
know, let's just say you're a veteran.
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In the space these days.
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And so I'm curious
when you look out at the,
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you know, the tech startup, the
AI environment you're seeing these days,
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what makes it unique
or different from other,
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you know, startup periods or cycles
you've seen in the past?
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Yes. Well, first of all,
thank you, Jeff, for having me on.
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I really appreciate the opportunity
to be with you here today
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in terms of this cycle,
compared to other cycles,
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few differences
that are pretty substantial.
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One is the speed at which things seem
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to be changing in a very broad based way.
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Is is unprecedented.
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I mean, we've had technology breakthroughs
before the internet, the smartphone,
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it seemed to be pretty dramatic,
but the reach and impact
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potential of this dramatic AI explosion
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seems to be faster
than what we've seen before.
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One, two.
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The other aspect of it
that is dramatically different is
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the amount of capital
that is being allocated to this, the, the,
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the, the quantity of capital
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that's being dedicated
to this particular cycle.
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Absolutely.
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Swamps previous tech innovation cycles.
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And so we thought we thought
the internet boom was a big deal.
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And, you know, it is nothing
compared to what we're seeing right now.
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And then the third thing
that is happening is
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you are seeing startup companies
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grow revenues at a pace
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that, again, has never been seen before
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in terms of the speed
to $1 billion of revenue.
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Are you kidding me?
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You know,
we had you know, we were we were sort of
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amazed by, you know,
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companies that got to 100 million
in revenue in just two years.
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I mean, that was amazing, you know,
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ten, 15, 20 years ago now it's nothing.
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Lots of companies
are getting to 200 million in revenue.
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And, you know, just several months.
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So, you know, many factors
that make this very,
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very different from cycles
we've seen in the past.
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I find all of those to be
pretty interesting and pretty compelling.
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And I want to dive a little bit.
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Deeper
into some of the implications of those.
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So maybe we'll start
by talking about growth
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and I guess the implications
for the volume of capital.
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Do you do you sense that for a lot
of these companies this is sustainable.
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And the tech is going to enable this
to continue.
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And I guess what I'm really getting at is
when we look at the volume of capital
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here, you know, some people have described
it as kind of a gold rush.
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And, you know,
there's been narratives that everybody's
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just kind of gotten a bit
greedy chasing these returns.
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But at some point, you know, there's going
to be an awful lot of, you know, losers.
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In addition to the winners
from the investment perspective,
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do you buy that or do you think the growth
that we're seeing is sustainable
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and it's just going to remain a pretty
hot business for the foreseeable future?
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No, certainly
we are in some form of bubble.
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Certainly there is too much capital
chasing too many possibilities,
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and there will be a lot of tears
somewhere down the line.
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You know, not all of
these companies are going to be able
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to, you know, to win
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or, you know, or even sustain.
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And so we're going to see lots
and lots of failures,
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you know, over the next several years. So.
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But that having said that,
you know, similar
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to the internet boom, you know,
there was a
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just a huge number of companies
that failed during the internet boom.
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But no one suggests that there wasn't
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enormous value creation
because of the internet boom.
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And so it's not as though
this is going to go away.
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It's just going to be very messy.
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And so, you know,
where you sit in that mess
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will be in a sort of depend
on kind of exactly how you were,
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how you were participating
in the whole process.
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But there's no question whatsoever
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that the momentum of innovation
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and the implications for everyone in terms
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of adopting these innovations
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is, is positive and sustainable
as far as the eye can see,
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particular products, technology,
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services, companies, capital investments,
those are going
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to be highly variable in terms
of, you know, who wins and who loses.
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And, you know, sort of by sheer count,
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most are going to lose.
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I think that makes a lot of sense.
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And, you know, I'm sure you know
better than most the ins and outs of,
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you know, the winners and the losers
and what that looks like.
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And I'm curious, on that note of caution,
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if there's any particular,
I guess, you know, trends or
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unique qualities
that you look for these days in companies
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that that you and Pegasus are investing
in, whether it's the sector they're in,
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whether it's some sort of moat,
whether it's,
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you know, the founders themselves,
what what to you
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are the best indicators that this company
could really be a winner.
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Yeah.
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You know, so our number one factor is
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they delivering a compelling value
proposition.
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And, you know, in order for it to be
compelling, it's got to be differentiated.
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And so if they're just delivering
something that everybody else
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is delivering,
then by definition it's not compelling.
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And so that relates to sort of the other
critical important factor,
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which is a variation on the moat theme.
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And that is
do they have an unfair advantage
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that is going to separate them
from the rest of the crowd
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that is going to differentiate them
and enable them to sustain,
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in spite of all of the other players
that are chasing them?
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And so we look for that unfair advantage.
00;07;32;02 - 00;07;38;03
And, you know, one of the challenges
in this environment is the baseline
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technology of generative
AI is now essentially a commodity.
00;07;43;06 - 00;07;46;18
And so so for any company
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that launches a new app that enables you
to automate
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some particular part of your world,
it's really hard for that company
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to differentiate because, you know,
next weekend, a couple of grad students
00;08;02;08 - 00;08;04;24
can launch something
that's a little bit better, right?
00;08;04;24 - 00;08;09;07
And so that's a huge challenge right now
for startup companies
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and for investors in this in this space.
00;08;13;06 - 00;08;19;01
So we look for companies
that are in some part of the ecosystem
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that other people can't easily penetrate,
with some unfair advantage
00;08;24;05 - 00;08;27;03
that other people can't easily acquire.
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The Unfair Advantage framing is really,
really interesting to me.
00;09;11;07 - 00;09;13;08
And you mentioned the
I guess on one side, the,
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you know, can a couple of grad students
do it in the weekend?
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And I was thinking
about the other side as well,
00;09;18;22 - 00;09;21;21
which is what happens
if one of the incumbents.
00;09;21;21 - 00;09;25;16
You know, one of the winners from the
the web cycle of the last handful of years
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decides that they want to do it right.
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To what degree do the Googles and
the anthropic and the Microsoft's like?
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Do they have an unfair advantage
in this space?
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I'm curious
to what degree you look at that
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and how it influences
where the bright spots are.
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Yeah, yeah.
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I mean, guys like OpenAI
and obviously Google,
00;09;47;28 - 00;09;53;14
but even Anthropic and Microsoft
obviously have an unfair advantage.
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So each has a different unfair advantage.
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You know, Google and Microsoft
have massive multi
00;10;01;25 - 00;10;06;05
multi-trillion dollar businesses
as it is independent of,
00;10;06;07 - 00;10;09;25
you know, generative AI
and large language models and all of that.
00;10;10;11 - 00;10;13;27
Guys like OpenAI
and anthropic have backers.
00;10;13;27 - 00;10;19;03
And now momentum in terms of customers,
that gives them
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an unfair advantage at this point.
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So it is you know, it's hard
00;10;24;22 - 00;10;28;17
for a startup
to have an unfair advantage of,
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you know, $10 billion of revenue.
00;10;33;15 - 00;10;36;15
But but yes, it's,
00;10;36;20 - 00;10;40;12
you know, to
to have that level of commercial success
00;10;40;24 - 00;10;45;01
gives companies like OpenAI and anthropic
an unfair advantage,
00;10;45;03 - 00;10;48;20
in addition to the partnerships
that they've been able to build
00;10;49;03 - 00;10;54;24
with some extraordinary partners
like Nvidia and the whole sort of data
00;10;54;26 - 00;10;58;06
center infrastructure
that they've been able to capture.
00;10;59;21 - 00;11;02;23
So I guess to
use, you know, kind of an old expression
00;11;02;23 - 00;11;06;06
in the business, like where do you see
the blue ocean these days?
00;11;06;07 - 00;11;06;21
Where?
00;11;06;21 - 00;11;11;03
Where are some of the areas
where there is still that ability
00;11;11;04 - 00;11;13;17
as a smaller player
to have an unfair advantage
00;11;13;17 - 00;11;15;20
and not get your lunch eaten
by one of these,
00;11;15;20 - 00;11;18;15
you know, $10 billion plus behemoths.
00;11;18;15 - 00;11;19;12
Yeah.
00;11;19;12 - 00;11;23;10
Well, I mean, the big blue ocean out there
00;11;24;12 - 00;11;29;23
is an entirely new architecture for AI.
00;11;30;07 - 00;11;31;29
That's the big blue ocean.
00;11;31;29 - 00;11;36;26
I mean, so in sort of the current
generation of architectures,
00;11;37;00 - 00;11;42;14
it's, you know, largely
what we got is maybe a lot of lakes there.
00;11;42;19 - 00;11;44;24
There are a lot of lakes out there.
00;11;44;24 - 00;11;48;04
But but no, the, the, the,
00;11;48;04 - 00;11;51;10
the blue ocean is that clearly
00;11;51;10 - 00;11;55;19
there's got to be another architecture
for large language models.
00;11;55;19 - 00;12;01;04
There's got to be
another architecture for, for robotics.
00;12;01;04 - 00;12;04;12
And so that's the you know, that's
00;12;04;16 - 00;12;07;20
the next wave, which is,
00;12;08;00 - 00;12;11;01
you know, it's going to take some work
for somebody to figure out,
00;12;11;16 - 00;12;16;02
but it's not as though,
you know, you can go into,
00;12;16;10 - 00;12;19;25
you know, fish
farming or nail salons and create
00;12;19;25 - 00;12;23;14
the next billion dollar business
because nobody's attacked that yet.
00;12;24;02 - 00;12;27;23
So but there are plenty of plenty,
plenty of beachhead
00;12;27;24 - 00;12;31;10
opportunities out there for for companies,
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for startups,
for corporations to develop and,
00;12;36;18 - 00;12;41;20
you know, take your current customer base,
whatever it is, and look at
00;12;41;22 - 00;12;46;03
what is already solved
and what is not yet solved,
00;12;46;14 - 00;12;49;24
or even more kind of
what can be solved better.
00;12;49;24 - 00;12;54;19
And that represents,
you know, opportunity for innovation.
00;12;56;03 - 00;13;00;13
So looking at some of the
more recent investments that you've made,
00;13;00;13 - 00;13;03;24
or some of the recent investments
that you're exploring, making,
00;13;03;25 - 00;13;07;12
you know, to, to the degree of specificity
that you're comfortable with.
00;13;07;23 - 00;13;12;01
Can you share some of, I guess, the,
you know, the themes or opportunities
00;13;12;01 - 00;13;15;11
that, you know, have caught your attention
or exciting to you?
00;13;16;08 - 00;13;17;07
Yeah.
00;13;17;07 - 00;13;20;06
So a key aspect of our investment
00;13;20;06 - 00;13;24;03
strategy is working
with our corporate partners to find
00;13;24;04 - 00;13;27;19
emerging technologies
of strategic value to them.
00;13;28;07 - 00;13;32;26
And so we are very much driven
by our network of over
00;13;32;26 - 00;13;38;10
40 multinational corporations who are our
partners in pursuing innovation.
00;13;38;10 - 00;13;43;00
And so we look pretty much across
the universe
00;13;43;00 - 00;13;47;17
and opportunities for innovation,
you know, very, very broadly.
00;13;47;17 - 00;13;52;21
So we look at material sciences
and life science and,
00;13;52;24 - 00;13;58;21
and enterprise software
and consumer and gaming and whatever.
00;13;58;21 - 00;14;01;20
So we look very, very, very, very broadly.
00;14;01;20 - 00;14;02;26
So for example,
00;14;02;26 - 00;14;07;10
we're looking at alternative foods
and what are called functional foods.
00;14;07;11 - 00;14;13;23
And so you know, in the whole food world
massive, huge amazing,
00;14;13;24 - 00;14;17;29
you know, part of our world,
that sort of tech and venture
00;14;18;00 - 00;14;19;24
doesn't pay that much attention to.
00;14;19;24 - 00;14;25;00
But we pay attention to the world
of agriculture and food and food
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distribution and health and wellness
and that whole value chain there.
00;14;30;06 - 00;14;35;01
And so starting at the farm with ag tech
through distribution.
00;14;35;03 - 00;14;42;00
Through functional foods and considering
sort of new ways to process food
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to make it healthier for you
or to last longer to reduce waste.
00;14;48;03 - 00;14;51;28
All of those
domains are really interesting
00;14;51;28 - 00;14;56;14
and huge domains,
but nobody talks about it much, right?
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In the sort of tech venture world
we also look at,
00;15;01;03 - 00;15;05;22
you know, novel materials
and so everything, you know,
00;15;05;23 - 00;15;12;07
physical in your world has some aspect
of material science associated with it.
00;15;12;09 - 00;15;15;27
You know,
simply the screen on your smartphone
00;15;16;13 - 00;15;20;20
that, you know, amazing
material science technology in there.
00;15;20;20 - 00;15;25;02
But there are better alternatives
out there for,
00;15;25;13 - 00;15;28;20
you know, the windows behind you,
the screens you're looking at,
00;15;28;21 - 00;15;33;28
the electronics in the
in the devices that you're working with.
00;15;34;26 - 00;15;37;03
Materials science can improve
00;15;37;03 - 00;15;40;26
the energy efficiency,
can improve the bandwidth,
00;15;40;26 - 00;15;46;00
throughput can improve the quality
of all of these devices and materials.
00;15;46;04 - 00;15;48;14
That's an interesting space.
00;15;48;14 - 00;15;52;28
And then how you manufacture things
and how you distribute things.
00;15;53;03 - 00;15;58;00
I you know, the
AI can help a lot in optimizing things.
00;15;58;02 - 00;16;01;15
Machine vision can help with that as well.
00;16;01;15 - 00;16;06;03
So there are just an enormous number
of interesting areas.
00;16;06;07 - 00;16;07;29
HealthTech is another one.
00;16;07;29 - 00;16;13;10
We recently invested in a company
that is has developed a number of
00;16;13;12 - 00;16;16;15
AI models for predicting
00;16;16;15 - 00;16;20;03
how molecules will interact
with other molecules,
00;16;20;03 - 00;16;25;19
and how combinations of molecules
will interact in the cell.
00;16;25;20 - 00;16;29;04
How do they get through the cell wall,
how do they interact
00;16;29;04 - 00;16;33;25
with the nucleus and other plasmids? NSL.
00;16;33;26 - 00;16;38;06
I mean, it's extraordinary science
that is, you know,
00;16;38;09 - 00;16;42;18
sort of way down, way down in the biotech
00;16;42;18 - 00;16;46;29
biochemistry plus AI models domain.
00;16;47;02 - 00;16;49;26
So I'm, you know, space tech, right?
00;16;49;26 - 00;16;54;11
I mean, so we're investors in space tech,
really, really interesting things
00;16;54;11 - 00;16;58;28
happening, you know, beyond
just launching and satellites.
00;16;58;28 - 00;17;04;09
And so, you know, we're big investors
in space from way back.
00;17;04;09 - 00;17;08;10
But we're also investors in Axiom Space,
00;17;08;10 - 00;17;11;10
which is building a space station
up there.
00;17;11;22 - 00;17;16;13
And then investors in some other
some other technologies
00;17;16;13 - 00;17;23;02
that take advantage of space to do things
better, faster, cheaper here on Earth.
00;17;23;02 - 00;17;27;09
So it's I mean, it's just an absolutely
00;17;27;12 - 00;17;31;12
amazing world that we live in right now
in terms of opportunities
00;17;31;12 - 00;17;34;12
to find innovations that can make a dent
00;17;34;12 - 00;17;37;12
in, you know, in any given ecosystem.
00;17;38;02 - 00;17;40;00
It sounds really, really exciting.
00;17;40;00 - 00;17;43;14
And I guess for me, what caught me
a bit off guard in a good way
00;17;43;14 - 00;17;48;18
is that what you didn't say is, you know,
Llms or LLM adjacent technology
00;17;48;18 - 00;17;52;03
or where it feels like
this capital is probably,
00;17;52;04 - 00;17;55;22
you know, densest
or kind of most oversaturated.
00;17;55;22 - 00;18;00;18
And yet it seems like a lot of these
areas are still leveraging cutting edge,
00;18;00;23 - 00;18;03;25
you know, whether it's AI technologies,
whether it's machine
00;18;03;25 - 00;18;07;02
learning,
it is sort of future tech and algorithms
00;18;07;02 - 00;18;11;02
as a way to optimize and automate
what's being done in these spaces.
00;18;11;03 - 00;18;13;18
Is that is that a fair read?
00;18;13;18 - 00;18;14;15
Absolutely.
00;18;14;15 - 00;18;17;15
Again, you know, for the most part,
00;18;18;21 - 00;18;20;14
Llms and AI,
00;18;20;14 - 00;18;25;08
broadly speaking, are sort of baseline
commodity,
00;18;25;15 - 00;18;29;20
you know, technologies that are available
for a wide range of applications.
00;18;29;20 - 00;18;32;19
Now, you know,
00;18;32;22 - 00;18;34;19
admittedly,
00;18;34;19 - 00;18;39;12
there are opportunities
to invest directly in Llms, as we have,
00;18;39;13 - 00;18;42;22
you know, we've invested in OpenAI,
we've invested in anthropic,
00;18;42;22 - 00;18;46;08
we're investors in AI now part of space.
00;18;47;08 - 00;18;51;19
So we have made those bets
because we do think, you know,
00;18;51;20 - 00;18;54;20
those are pretty fundamental
00;18;54;24 - 00;18;59;05
technologies
and companies in terms of the future.
00;18;59;05 - 00;19;04;15
And they enable a whole bunch
of other things out there.
00;19;05;05 - 00;19;10;07
But yes, other aspects of our investment
00;19;10;07 - 00;19;14;26
thesis is the infrastructure
to support all of this going forward.
00;19;15;00 - 00;19;19;18
So, yes, massive amounts of money
are going into building data centers,
00;19;19;18 - 00;19;21;03
but then there are a whole bunch
00;19;21;03 - 00;19;24;25
of problems around data centers
that need to be solved.
00;19;24;26 - 00;19;27;26
You know, how do you provide
enough energy to data centers.
00;19;27;26 - 00;19;32;15
And so we have invested in a company
that is developing technology
00;19;32;15 - 00;19;36;17
to provide behind the meter energy
for data centers.
00;19;36;23 - 00;19;37;11
Right.
00;19;37;11 - 00;19;41;28
And then you've got the water cooling
issue of data centers.
00;19;41;29 - 00;19;44;12
Is there a better way to cool data
centers?
00;19;44;12 - 00;19;47;29
Well, the best way to cool
data centers is to reduce the heat.
00;19;48;00 - 00;19;49;10
How do you reduce the heat?
00;19;49;10 - 00;19;54;05
You increase the efficiency of all of
the compute inside the data center.
00;19;54;05 - 00;19;59;25
And so chips and other technologies
that improve the energy efficiency
00;19;59;25 - 00;20;03;18
of compute, that's another domain
that we're investing in.
00;20;03;19 - 00;20;07;28
So yeah, you know
we're in the thick of that as well.
00;20;09;02 - 00;20;12;03
You know,
as then all of the adjacencies out there
00;20;12;03 - 00;20;15;16
that could take advantage
of these new technologies.
00;20;17;10 - 00;20;21;07
It's it's so exciting to me
00;20;21;21 - 00;20;25;06
just hearing, I guess, about the fact
that it feels like, like almost
00;20;25;06 - 00;20;28;29
every sector is exploding with possibility
at once.
00;20;29;00 - 00;20;31;08
Right. Like it's
there's the foundational piece.
00;20;31;08 - 00;20;35;06
There's every individual sector,
like anywhere you turn over a rock,
00;20;35;09 - 00;20;39;10
there's use the word speed earlier,
but it feels like this speed
00;20;39;12 - 00;20;44;02
isn't just in little,
you know, cute app startups with AI.
00;20;44;03 - 00;20;47;17
It's literally all over the economy,
right?
00;20;47;19 - 00;20;49;22
No, it is, and it is.
00;20;49;22 - 00;20;52;22
You know, it's one of the massive
00;20;53;10 - 00;20;55;05
evolutions of Silicon
00;20;55;05 - 00;20;59;16
Valley is back in the old days,
you know, you were sort of
00;20;59;17 - 00;21;03;26
touching on the application that I was
there back in the old days, which is fair.
00;21;05;12 - 00;21;09;03
So back in the old days, you know, we,
00;21;09;06 - 00;21;10;09
you know, we built computers
00;21;10;09 - 00;21;14;07
and software and networks and, you know,
that was good stuff,
00;21;14;07 - 00;21;18;02
but it was mainly sort of
corporate infrastructure.
00;21;18;15 - 00;21;21;23
And we had some home stuff
and I did some edtech stuff.
00;21;21;23 - 00;21;23;11
And, you know, that was nice.
00;21;23;11 - 00;21;26;11
But the world went on. Right.
00;21;26;12 - 00;21;30;28
And, and then, you know,
and then came the internet
00;21;30;28 - 00;21;34;18
and then came smartphones
and now coming AI.
00;21;34;18 - 00;21;38;17
And so all of a sudden,
sort of Silicon Valley, broadly
00;21;38;17 - 00;21;41;17
defined in terms of the tech, you know,
00;21;41;17 - 00;21;45;20
ecosystem of startups and venture, now
00;21;45;21 - 00;21;50;27
touches everything that everybody does
every day.
00;21;51;14 - 00;21;55;05
You know,
from when you get up in the morning to
00;21;55;07 - 00;21;59;26
how you get to work, what you do at work,
what you do over the weekend,
00;22;00;06 - 00;22;03;06
you know, leisure time,
00;22;03;10 - 00;22;05;29
you know, services, information.
00;22;05;29 - 00;22;09;07
It's hard to think of anything that you
00;22;09;07 - 00;22;12;08
touch during the day that is
00;22;12;10 - 00;22;17;01
that is not subject to this innovation
00;22;17;01 - 00;22;21;14
ecosystem that has grown up over
the last many, many years.
00;22;23;13 - 00;22;24;26
It feels so.
00;22;24;26 - 00;22;29;05
So I'm I'm not a Silicon Valley insider.
00;22;29;05 - 00;22;32;13
I'll put that on the table, but
it feels like one of the interesting sort
00;22;32;13 - 00;22;36;01
of trends here is maybe a generation ago,
if I can call it that.
00;22;36;01 - 00;22;37;23
In Silicon Valley.
00;22;37;23 - 00;22;42;05
It wasn't Silicon Valley everywhere
in terms of touching
00;22;42;06 - 00;22;45;07
all these different sectors,
all these different areas of technology.
00;22;45;07 - 00;22;48;07
It was much more focused
in this sort of core,
00;22;48;18 - 00;22;53;07
you know, applications, core software
build outs, the things that now can,
00;22;53;08 - 00;22;56;28
as you said,
be written by a couple of grad students,
00;22;57;10 - 00;23;00;09
you know, over a weekend
is part of the reason.
00;23;00;09 - 00;23;03;11
I guess it's part of the reason
we're seeing this shape change is
00;23;03;11 - 00;23;07;16
it feels like that area that used to be,
00;23;07;26 - 00;23;11;00
you know, so rich for VCs,
00;23;11;08 - 00;23;15;13
probably doesn't need VCs as much anymore
because of what the, you know,
00;23;15;14 - 00;23;17;06
if you can build it in a weekend
with two people,
00;23;17;06 - 00;23;20;18
why do you need venture capital fund
if it's really moving that quickly?
00;23;20;18 - 00;23;26;08
And so it feels like there's the world is
changing in the shape of it is changing.
00;23;26;08 - 00;23;28;14
And where we'll see
investments is changing.
00;23;28;14 - 00;23;29;23
Is that a fair reader?
00;23;29;23 - 00;23;32;17
Would you characterize it differently?
00;23;33;23 - 00;23;36;23
No, it's a very, very fair rate.
00;23;37;15 - 00;23;40;04
No, it's a very, very fair read.
00;23;40;04 - 00;23;43;25
And and you know,
we've had this discussion and debate,
00;23;44;19 - 00;23;48;06
you know, on panels here around how is it
00;23;48;06 - 00;23;51;13
that things are evolving
and what are the implications of it
00;23;51;14 - 00;23;54;23
now that you can build an app
over the weekend?
00;23;56;01 - 00;23;58;21
You know, what does that mean
for the role of venture
00;23;58;21 - 00;24;02;26
capital in, in, in supporting innovation.
00;24;02;26 - 00;24;08;27
So while it is true
that it has never been easier to develop
00;24;08;27 - 00;24;14;24
a significantly powerful,
innovative application of some sort,
00;24;15;16 - 00;24;19;15
it has never been harder to scale it.
00;24;20;00 - 00;24;23;26
And so what what we're seeing is that
00;24;24;00 - 00;24;28;10
it takes a lot of resource
and a fair amount of luck,
00;24;28;10 - 00;24;33;07
but a lot of resource,
you know, to get out above the noise.
00;24;33;10 - 00;24;36;13
And so, you know, because there's
00;24;36;13 - 00;24;40;03
so much noise
now in the innovation ecosystem,
00;24;40;20 - 00;24;42;16
your ability as a startup,
00;24;42;16 - 00;24;45;12
you know, you've got this great app
you've developed over the weekend.
00;24;45;12 - 00;24;48;22
So how is it going to break out now?
00;24;48;22 - 00;24;52;12
Sometimes they break out,
you know, serendipitously.
00;24;52;25 - 00;24;57;02
But generally generally
it takes a lot of resource
00;24;57;02 - 00;25;01;27
to get interesting innovations
to break out above the noise.
00;25;01;27 - 00;25;05;15
And so that's that's the role of venture
00;25;05;15 - 00;25;10;22
capital
now is to help startups with the capital
00;25;10;22 - 00;25;14;18
and the connections
that they need to break out
00;25;14;18 - 00;25;19;08
and get above the noise to be able
to scale their businesses.
00;25;19;08 - 00;25;24;11
So, you know, there's still
a real important role for venture capital.
00;25;24;23 - 00;25;27;11
But what has happened is you've now
00;25;27;11 - 00;25;30;13
got this massive influx of
00;25;31;06 - 00;25;33;15
of sort of new characteristics
00;25;33;15 - 00;25;37;03
of capital, generally not venture, but,
00;25;37;08 - 00;25;41;11
you know, project development
for all these data centers and,
00;25;41;27 - 00;25;44;23
you know, sort of late stage
00;25;44;23 - 00;25;47;23
private equity types of capital,
00;25;48;00 - 00;25;52;01
you know, for these massive multi-billion
dollar financings,
00;25;52;21 - 00;25;56;04
you know, bringing in a whole bunch
00;25;56;04 - 00;26;00;03
of different types of capital
into the innovation ecosystem
00;26;00;19 - 00;26;06;13
that now, you know, swamps
the traditional venture capital, emerging
00;26;06;14 - 00;26;11;04
tech, startup
ecosystem, kinds of investments.
00;26;13;12 - 00;26;14;27
Do you see that as
00;26;14;27 - 00;26;18;28
something that trickles its way down
to actually creating value for customers?
00;26;18;29 - 00;26;21;04
I mean, I can understand why it's good.
00;26;21;04 - 00;26;23;10
You know, if you're an investor,
I can see why it's good.
00;26;23;10 - 00;26;26;17
If you're a founder and you're looking
to make a buck, I can see why that's good.
00;26;26;18 - 00;26;31;06
If you're a customer, does that ecosystem
make things better for you?
00;26;31;27 - 00;26;35;14
Well, the great thing,
the great thing about,
00;26;36;23 - 00;26;40;21
you know, sort of the open market
capitalist
00;26;40;21 - 00;26;44;24
economies is that as a customer,
you get to choose, right?
00;26;44;25 - 00;26;47;14
You don't have to buy if you don't want.
00;26;47;14 - 00;26;51;17
And that's actually,
you know, that's actually in some senses,
00;26;51;25 - 00;26;56;27
you know, a big problem
for the pace of innovation
00;26;56;27 - 00;27;00;02
is all of the sand and the gears
00;27;00;03 - 00;27;03;15
of the adoption cycles
00;27;03;25 - 00;27;09;24
by, you know, corporations, governments,
you know, consumers, you know,
00;27;09;25 - 00;27;14;14
there's there's an inherent resistance
to adopting new things.
00;27;15;05 - 00;27;20;10
And so that's part of why
the cost of scaling has gone up so much,
00;27;21;05 - 00;27;25;12
is that is the need to overcome
that inherent resistance.
00;27;25;29 - 00;27;30;17
But another aspect of this diffusion
of innovation
00;27;30;17 - 00;27;34;28
across every aspect of our lives
is that now
00;27;35;01 - 00;27;40;01
it creates a sort of whole
big public policy discussion
00;27;40;03 - 00;27;43;05
that we didn't really have that much
before.
00;27;43;06 - 00;27;48;06
I mean, again, in the olden days,
there were these, you know, kerfuffle
00;27;48;06 - 00;27;53;15
over, you know, Japan getting ahead of us
in semiconductors and cars.
00;27;53;16 - 00;27;53;28
Right.
00;27;53;28 - 00;27;55;09
And so there was,
00;27;55;09 - 00;27;58;17
you know, public policy around innovation
and all that sort of stuff.
00;27;58;17 - 00;28;02;19
And then, of course, China that became,
you know, a very interesting
00;28;02;20 - 00;28;06;11
topic in terms of intellectual property
and all of that.
00;28;06;11 - 00;28;10;21
But now, you know, you've got just this,
00;28;10;21 - 00;28;15;01
because tech touches all of our lives
in so many different ways.
00;28;15;04 - 00;28;20;20
Now you've got politicians
who are involved in this on a daily basis,
00;28;21;14 - 00;28;25;12
you know, sort of within each country
and then across continents.
00;28;26;00 - 00;28;31;27
All of a sudden, innovation has become
a very significant topic for politicians
00;28;32;11 - 00;28;35;06
in sort of in every direction, in terms
00;28;35;06 - 00;28;39;28
of of competing with other countries
and or protecting
00;28;39;28 - 00;28;44;23
your citizens and regulation
about data leaks and privacy.
00;28;44;23 - 00;28;48;14
And I'm, you know, it has expanded
00;28;48;15 - 00;28;53;15
the sort of noise in the system
just dramatically,
00;28;53;25 - 00;28;57;04
which, again, makes it increasingly
00;28;57;04 - 00;29;00;06
challenging to be an entrepreneur.
00;29;00;06 - 00;29;01;11
That makes sense to me.
00;29;01;11 - 00;29;04;21
And there's a couple of,
you know, follow ups I have to that.
00;29;04;22 - 00;29;06;01
One of them is we were speaking earlier
00;29;06;01 - 00;29;09;12
before we started recording
about your recent trip to Shanghai.
00;29;09;13 - 00;29;12;14
And I'm curious,
you know, for your sort of reflections
00;29;12;14 - 00;29;16;24
on, I guess, the geopolitics of innovation
and the future of tech.
00;29;16;25 - 00;29;21;03
You had been mentioning that,
you know, things just are a bit different
00;29;21;03 - 00;29;24;12
in China for, for better and for worse,
I guess.
00;29;24;12 - 00;29;26;01
What are your
some of your implications on that?
00;29;26;01 - 00;29;30;03
And if there's any takeaways for you,
for what the implications should be
00;29;30;03 - 00;29;31;20
in Silicon Valley
00;29;32;24 - 00;29;37;00
now. So yeah, lots of really interesting
00;29;37;00 - 00;29;41;00
discussions with, you know,
a variety of people from around the world.
00;29;41;00 - 00;29;44;23
While I was at the world
AI Conference in Shanghai.
00;29;44;24 - 00;29;51;04
So one of the things that is very clear,
that is, I think a good thing in many ways
00;29;51;04 - 00;29;55;26
is that you cannot keep technology
00;29;55;27 - 00;29;59;18
within the borders of any given country.
00;29;59;26 - 00;30;03;13
So technology will always diffuse
00;30;03;13 - 00;30;07;15
globally, and it doesn't matter
what sort of firewalls you put up or what
00;30;07;16 - 00;30;11;26
sort of fences you put
up, technology will diffuse globally.
00;30;12;14 - 00;30;15;03
You can put some, you know, some,
00;30;15;03 - 00;30;18;27
you know,
a little bit of interim blocks in there.
00;30;18;27 - 00;30;23;13
But fundamentally technology
is going to diffuse globally.
00;30;23;13 - 00;30;27;04
And we see that,
you know, sort of all over the world.
00;30;27;20 - 00;30;31;12
Obviously, China has been able
to take great advantage
00;30;31;18 - 00;30;35;01
of every innovation
that's happened elsewhere in the world.
00;30;35;01 - 00;30;39;10
And then sort of poor additional resource
into accelerating it.
00;30;39;10 - 00;30;45;02
And so as a result, they have,
you know, caught up in many, many areas
00;30;45;02 - 00;30;49;28
and they have surpassed the rest of
the world in many, many areas now.
00;30;49;29 - 00;30;55;03
So obviously in areas
like renewable energy,
00;30;55;18 - 00;30;59;12
you know, ten years ago,
you would have wouldn't have quite
00;30;59;13 - 00;31;02;02
thought that it would have played out
the way it has.
00;31;02;02 - 00;31;06;00
But now China deploys
more renewable energy
00;31;06;00 - 00;31;08;12
than the rest of the world combined.
00;31;08;12 - 00;31;13;11
I mean, it's overwhelming in terms of wind
and solar and other sources.
00;31;13;28 - 00;31;18;15
And then that has played out into
the whole electric vehicle side of things.
00;31;19;14 - 00;31;22;02
You know, China was way behind the curve
00;31;22;02 - 00;31;25;29
in electric vehicles, you know, up
until just the last few years.
00;31;25;29 - 00;31;31;24
And now, you know, it's
it is shocking going back to Shanghai.
00;31;31;29 - 00;31;33;28
You know,
I haven't been there for eight years.
00;31;33;28 - 00;31;39;12
The last time I was in Shanghai, on a
on a cloudless day,
00;31;39;27 - 00;31;43;26
the air was yellow with,
you know, pollution
00;31;44;20 - 00;31;47;09
and, you know, you could see
00;31;47;09 - 00;31;50;19
the iconic buildings on the Bund,
you know,
00;31;50;20 - 00;31;54;07
sort of through this yellowish,
you know, miasma.
00;31;55;05 - 00;31;58;05
You go back now and,
00;31;58;15 - 00;32;01;07
you know,
I don't know what the number is, but,
00;32;01;07 - 00;32;04;26
you know,
you look at the traffic and EVs have green
00;32;04;26 - 00;32;07;29
license plates in Shanghai, and you're
00;32;07;29 - 00;32;11;00
looking at the traffic and like almost
all the license plates are green.
00;32;11;06 - 00;32;14;19
It's unbelievable
the transition they've made
00;32;14;19 - 00;32;19;07
to electric vehicles
and to cleaning up the air.
00;32;19;23 - 00;32;23;02
And so now the air is is
00;32;23;02 - 00;32;26;12
you can taste the difference literally,
00;32;27;20 - 00;32;30;05
you know, in the air in Shanghai again
00;32;30;05 - 00;32;34;27
you know, what they've been able to
execute is just, you know astonishing.
00;32;34;27 - 00;32;38;09
So but you know, it's you can
00;32;38;09 - 00;32;42;16
you can't control the the diffusion
of technology around the world.
00;32;42;25 - 00;32;47;05
You can control the diffusion of capital
around the world.
00;32;47;05 - 00;32;51;23
And so unfortunately,
I think for the world,
00;32;52;13 - 00;32;55;13
you know, we now have this barrier
00;32;55;13 - 00;32;59;13
in terms of capital flows
between ecosystems.
00;33;00;11 - 00;33;03;00
You know,
China has been able to make up with it,
00;33;03;00 - 00;33;06;12
for it, with with government funding.
00;33;06;16 - 00;33;11;08
And so the private sector venture world
00;33;11;08 - 00;33;14;08
in China has,
00;33;14;13 - 00;33;18;07
you know, by
some accounts, close to collapse.
00;33;18;08 - 00;33;22;19
I mean, not everybody would say that,
but it's dramatically down.
00;33;23;04 - 00;33;27;07
But the total amount of capital
going to innovation has dramatically
00;33;27;07 - 00;33;31;01
increased, you know, entirely
because of the government.
00;33;31;20 - 00;33;36;17
So, you know, so we see these advances
that China has made
00;33;36;21 - 00;33;40;16
thanks to government sponsorship,
which, you know, we're never going
00;33;40;16 - 00;33;43;27
to really be able to do here in the US
and in the West.
00;33;43;28 - 00;33;47;19
We just don't have
that kind of government.
00;33;47;19 - 00;33;51;11
And for the most part, thank God, right?
00;33;52;24 - 00;33;55;24
For the most part, thank
God we don't have that kind of government.
00;33;55;24 - 00;33;59;01
But, you know, you see, I mean, you
00;33;59;01 - 00;34;02;05
visit Shanghai
and you see that you see the trade off.
00;34;02;26 - 00;34;03;10
Yeah.
00;34;03;10 - 00;34;05;29
I would not make that trade off.
00;34;05;29 - 00;34;10;28
But but we need to be aware of the fact
00;34;11;01 - 00;34;14;23
that that has given them a,
00;34;15;25 - 00;34;18;04
you know, a significant advantage in terms
00;34;18;04 - 00;34;21;03
of catching up and surpassing,
00;34;21;07 - 00;34;24;02
you know, the West more,
you know, Silicon Valley
00;34;24;02 - 00;34;28;22
and the West more broadly in terms
of advanced technologies.
00;34;28;24 - 00;34;34;20
And so, you know, the next interesting
step is going to be quantum computing.
00;34;35;08 - 00;34;40;23
And, you know, who gets to fault tolerant
00;34;41;11 - 00;34;44;11
quantum supremacy faster
00;34;44;27 - 00;34;48;21
is an anxiety on both sides.
00;34;49;11 - 00;34;54;05
You know, both sides
want to win that particular race.
00;34;54;05 - 00;34;58;25
It will be interesting
to see if it really does matter.
00;34;59;15 - 00;35;03;13
So, you know, I don't know if maybe
00;35;04;10 - 00;35;08;03
there's an there's an analogy
between OpenAI and anthropic.
00;35;08;04 - 00;35;10;27
Does it really matter who wins that race?
00;35;10;27 - 00;35;15;21
I mean, both can be successful,
you know, from week to week.
00;35;15;29 - 00;35;18;29
Benchmarks
suggest one is ahead of the other.
00;35;19;06 - 00;35;22;01
If if, you know,
00;35;22;01 - 00;35;26;07
five years from now, we finally get to
commercial quantum computing.
00;35;27;29 - 00;35;29;23
You know,
00;35;29;23 - 00;35;33;13
maybe the Chinese will be a little head,
maybe will be a little bit ahead.
00;35;33;13 - 00;35;37;25
But whatever it is,
the difference is going to be a little.
00;35;37;25 - 00;35;40;14
It's not going to be, you know, binary.
00;35;40;14 - 00;35;43;14
You know, these guys win, these guys lose.
00;35;43;26 - 00;35;48;29
I mean, so
you can have successful quantum computing.
00;35;49;02 - 00;35;56;03
So on on both sides obviously
we would prefer to win on this side.
00;35;56;06 - 00;36;03;00
But you know if if they get ahead of us
what does that mean.
00;36;03;01 - 00;36;07;22
It to some extent means God damn it,
we got to try harder.
00;36;07;23 - 00;36;08;04
Right.
00;36;08;04 - 00;36;12;27
And that's arguably arguably
that's an incentive to
00;36;13;15 - 00;36;16;20
that's an incentive
to innovation and investment.
00;36;16;27 - 00;36;19;27
Is this competition. So
00;36;20;25 - 00;36;24;27
you know how it plays out
I'm not sure I can predict,
00;36;24;27 - 00;36;30;14
but it certainly is an issue
we need to be paying attention to.
00;36;30;16 - 00;36;33;21
We need to understand
what is going on over there.
00;36;34;15 - 00;36;40;03
I think they're doing their best
to understand what's going on over here.
00;36;40;10 - 00;36;46;01
And so, you know, it's only fair
that we make sure that we don't
00;36;46;02 - 00;36;50;08
slip behind by not paying attention
to what they're doing.
00;36;51;13 - 00;36;52;04
Do you.
00;36;52;04 - 00;36;56;11
Subscribe to the narrative
that the Chinese model is really just,
00;36;56;12 - 00;37;01;15
you know, IPFs paired
with massive amounts of state funding?
00;37;01;15 - 00;37;05;13
And so, you know,
if we do our part to minimize IP theft
00;37;05;13 - 00;37;09;12
and maybe we can't based on what you said
about technology being transborder, but
00;37;09;28 - 00;37;14;04
if I if I believe that narrative,
it seems to me that,
00;37;14;23 - 00;37;18;16
you know, the quantum leaps,
you know, to use that term will come from
00;37;19;06 - 00;37;23;06
and then we'll maybe we'll get,
you know, leapfrogged by China
00;37;23;08 - 00;37;26;01
at some point,
but that they don't have a model
00;37;26;01 - 00;37;28;24
that will actually help them
achieve that breakthrough.
00;37;28;24 - 00;37;32;07
Do you buy that or is that just more of
kind of an anti-Chinese sentiment?
00;37;33;01 - 00;37;35;29
I mean,
I think it's an outdated perspective
00;37;35;29 - 00;37;38;29
on the Chinese model of innovation.
00;37;39;18 - 00;37;42;06
And, you know,
00;37;42;06 - 00;37;45;24
yes, there was certainly,
you know, many, many, many years
00;37;45;24 - 00;37;49;09
where it seemed that their strategy
00;37;49;09 - 00;37;53;16
was primarily to steal from the West,
00;37;53;21 - 00;37;56;17
and they had a whole bunch
of different ways of doing it.
00;37;56;17 - 00;37;59;12
Some were legal and some were not legal.
00;37;59;12 - 00;38;03;20
But it goes back to,
I mean, the history of technology,
00;38;03;26 - 00;38;06;26
the United States, you know,
00;38;06;27 - 00;38;11;09
dramatically accelerated
its textile business
00;38;11;09 - 00;38;15;08
locally by stealing IP from the UK.
00;38;15;24 - 00;38;16;07
Okay.
00;38;16;07 - 00;38;21;04
I mean, so, you know,
we did that, what, 200 years ago.
00;38;21;17 - 00;38;26;00
And and, you know, it worked out
reasonably well for New England.
00;38;26;00 - 00;38;32;04
But and you know, arguably
arguably the development of the railroads
00;38;32;04 - 00;38;35;11
was dependent upon, you know, borrowing
00;38;35;11 - 00;38;38;11
some IP from, from Europe.
00;38;38;11 - 00;38;41;11
And so,
you know, the history of technology
00;38;41;12 - 00;38;44;12
suggests that you can't necessarily,
00;38;46;08 - 00;38;47;03
you know,
00;38;47;03 - 00;38;52;14
be surprised that that, you know,
over the last century,
00;38;52;15 - 00;38;57;27
Japan, Korea
and now China have borrowed IP from,
00;38;58;10 - 00;39;01;21
you know, the West in order
to accelerate their own innovation.
00;39;01;21 - 00;39;06;13
But, you know, you look at
what's going on in China now and
00;39;07;17 - 00;39;10;17
again, I have,
00;39;10;22 - 00;39;16;02
you know, very,
very little doubt that they have people
00;39;16;02 - 00;39;20;07
who are as creative
as people we have over here.
00;39;21;01 - 00;39;25;07
And I do think they they are handicapped
00;39;25;08 - 00;39;31;11
to some extent by the information controls
that the Chinese government imposes.
00;39;31;11 - 00;39;36;03
But for advanced technology,
the Chinese government is, you know,
00;39;36;04 - 00;39;39;12
very happy for Chinese innovators,
00;39;39;12 - 00;39;42;12
academics, researchers, engineers
00;39;42;13 - 00;39;45;23
to learn as much as they can
about what's going on in the West.
00;39;46;14 - 00;39;51;28
So and then taking advantage of that
and improving it either
00;39;51;28 - 00;39;57;20
incrementally or by leaps
and bounds with their own talent. So
00;39;58;19 - 00;40;01;15
I would not bet against
00;40;01;15 - 00;40;04;15
the ability of China to be innovative.
00;40;06;10 - 00;40;09;19
I want to keep following that thread
and maybe a slightly different direction,
00;40;09;19 - 00;40;14;16
but I'm thinking about these creative
individuals, the structures
00;40;14;16 - 00;40;18;28
that can enable or stifle that creativity
and actually kind of unlock
00;40;18;28 - 00;40;20;04
and unleash innovation.
00;40;20;04 - 00;40;20;25
And, you know,
00;40;20;25 - 00;40;24;19
one of the things that you said earlier,
Bill, that I wanted to follow up on,
00;40;24;21 - 00;40;28;26
was that what you and what Pegasus do
when it comes to innovation?
00;40;29;05 - 00;40;33;27
A lot of it is working with corporate
partners and not just direct investing.
00;40;34;15 - 00;40;38;11
There's been an awful lot of talk
for a long time about how, you know,
00;40;38;12 - 00;40;43;16
large enterprises can be more innovative
or how they can have an innovation arm.
00;40;43;16 - 00;40;46;20
And whether that's doing it themselves,
whether that's
00;40;46;20 - 00;40;50;02
acquiring a business, whether that's
some sort of partnership or investment.
00;40;50;10 - 00;40;54;06
I'm curious what your perspective is on
00;40;55;03 - 00;40;57;10
how enterprises can best,
00;40;58;20 - 00;41;02;05
can best be
like, explore and develop that innovation.
00;41;02;06 - 00;41;05;09
Which of those models works best,
or is it really a blend?
00;41;05;09 - 00;41;08;09
That depends on the the enterprise?
00;41;09;06 - 00;41;09;28
Yeah, yeah.
00;41;09;28 - 00;41;17;09
I mean, there are a whole bunch of things
that get in the way of large corporations
00;41;17;10 - 00;41;21;06
being as innovative as startups can be.
00;41;21;17 - 00;41;24;17
And, you know, one of them
00;41;25;11 - 00;41;29;15
is the fear of failure is that is
00;41;29;18 - 00;41;34;04
can you know who's the who's
the manager executive who's going
00;41;34;04 - 00;41;37;07
to stick their neck out and try something
00;41;37;11 - 00;41;40;11
that has a good chance of failing,
00;41;40;26 - 00;41;43;12
you know, to help
innovate the organization?
00;41;43;12 - 00;41;46;20
Most corporations have a culture
00;41;46;20 - 00;41;51;26
that punishes failure and rewards
not making mistakes.
00;41;51;27 - 00;41;53;03
Right.
00;41;53;03 - 00;41;57;01
And so that's inherently anti innovation.
00;41;57;03 - 00;42;01;10
And so if you want to innovate
you've got to experiment.
00;42;01;10 - 00;42;06;08
And by definition experimentation
means there's a chance of failure.
00;42;06;11 - 00;42;10;14
And so that is something that is core
00;42;10;18 - 00;42;15;10
to enabling corporations
to enhance their innovation.
00;42;15;21 - 00;42;19;28
The other thing
that that is related to that,
00;42;20;19 - 00;42;25;07
that makes innovation
hard, is the whole concept
00;42;25;07 - 00;42;29;06
that we have in the startup world
of a minimum viable product
00;42;29;11 - 00;42;33;01
is something that is unacceptable
00;42;33;01 - 00;42;36;22
in a corporate brand environment. Right?
00;42;36;23 - 00;42;41;10
So, you know, the the reason startups
can get away with a minimum
00;42;41;10 - 00;42;44;25
viable product, which is a product
that doesn't always work
00;42;44;25 - 00;42;50;00
the way it maybe should
and sometimes breaks, is,
00;42;50;07 - 00;42;54;21
is that that corporation, that startup,
you know, doesn't have a brand anyway?
00;42;54;22 - 00;42;59;28
I mean, there's, there's there's
no brand to devalue, but big corporation
00;42;59;28 - 00;43;03;16
that has a brand, you know, and launches
a minimum viable product.
00;43;03;16 - 00;43;05;06
Oh my God. Right.
00;43;05;06 - 00;43;08;13
I mean, if that breaks,
if it doesn't work, you know,
00;43;09;04 - 00;43;13;13
then it damages this larger,
you know, brand.
00;43;13;24 - 00;43;19;18
And so what corporations
need to figure out is how to create a,
00;43;19;27 - 00;43;23;10
you know, a sandbox or sandboxes of sorts
00;43;23;16 - 00;43;26;16
where they can do this experimentation,
00;43;26;26 - 00;43;32;05
sort of outside of the concerns
of the global corporate brand
00;43;32;07 - 00;43;37;17
in such a way that they can learn
and experiment and discover and innovate,
00;43;37;17 - 00;43;40;25
and then eventually get to the point
where they can
00;43;40;27 - 00;43;44;07
integrate with the larger corporate brand.
00;43;44;07 - 00;43;50;11
But, you know, that's you know,
we used to have a a reasonably sort of
00;43;50;12 - 00;43;55;03
well understood model of that
in the concept of a skunk works
00;43;55;29 - 00;44;00;04
and or,
you know, to some extent a research lab,
00;44;00;20 - 00;44;04;24
you know, a Bell Labs or a Sarnoff Labs
or some of these
00;44;05;03 - 00;44;08;24
more traditional approaches to doing
00;44;08;24 - 00;44;12;03
R&D outside of the corporate brand.
00;44;12;19 - 00;44;14;19
But for whatever reason,
00;44;15;19 - 00;44;16;04
you know,
00;44;16;04 - 00;44;19;17
those things have kind of gone
away, right?
00;44;19;20 - 00;44;24;06
I mean, you don't not a lot of Bell Labs
anymore, right?
00;44;24;18 - 00;44;28;10
And so I now where does this happen?
00;44;28;10 - 00;44;29;24
Inside of a corporation.
00;44;29;24 - 00;44;33;23
And so what we work
with our corporate partners
00;44;33;23 - 00;44;38;23
to try to do is to enable them,
you know, to set up
00;44;38;23 - 00;44;42;09
these sort of separated sandboxes
00;44;42;09 - 00;44;46;10
so they can explore innovations
00;44;46;10 - 00;44;51;09
without the sort of fear that happens
within the larger corporation
00;44;51;12 - 00;44;56;12
of any failed experiments, damaging,
you know, the corporate brand.
00;44;57;00 - 00;44;58;29
It's something that's
really interesting to me.
00;44;58;29 - 00;45;00;03
And I say that in part
00;45;00;03 - 00;45;04;08
because I used to lead an innovation
arm of the company I worked for.
00;45;04;08 - 00;45;07;06
But it's also interesting to me
because I think, as you said,
00;45;07;06 - 00;45;10;22
and you very clearly highlighted
a lot of the the factors
00;45;10;22 - 00;45;14;29
that historically, the risk of failure
here is extremely high, right,
00;45;15;00 - 00;45;19;25
that that most companies and corporations
are just not very good at this
00;45;19;25 - 00;45;24;00
because there's a fear of failure
because it's not a true sandbox.
00;45;24;13 - 00;45;27;13
You know, maybe they don't
have the right by in or they don't.
00;45;27;13 - 00;45;29;08
They just really aren't
set up for success.
00;45;29;08 - 00;45;33;14
And so you mentioned that,
you know, part of what you do is often
00;45;33;14 - 00;45;37;09
more of a partnership
where it's finding external partners
00;45;37;09 - 00;45;42;01
or startups that can pair
with organizations to do this.
00;45;42;05 - 00;45;46;04
Do you see that as a more fruitful model,
or is how would you decide
00;45;46;04 - 00;45;48;10
if you're a business leader,
whether this is something
00;45;48;10 - 00;45;49;15
that you should build
00;45;49;15 - 00;45;51;26
as your own little lab
or skunkworks in-house,
00;45;51;26 - 00;45;53;16
or whether you should find a partner?
00;45;54;18 - 00;45;54;29
Yeah.
00;45;54;29 - 00;45;58;28
And so the, the
whole, the whole idea of open innovation
00;45;58;28 - 00;46;04;06
and the idea of sort of corporate venture
capital innovation is
00;46;04;20 - 00;46;09;25
you use these startups as your sandboxes,
as your skunkworks.
00;46;09;25 - 00;46;12;27
And so, you know, rather than
00;46;14;12 - 00;46;17;11
buying them and trying to integrate them,
00;46;17;11 - 00;46;20;11
which was kind of an old model
for doing it,
00;46;20;29 - 00;46;27;00
leave them independent
and invest in them, support them, partner
00;46;27;00 - 00;46;31;05
with them, collaborate with them,
but leave them independent.
00;46;31;19 - 00;46;36;24
And till you know you get to a point
where it makes sense to integrate them, to
00;46;36;25 - 00;46;40;03
maybe acquire them or to license
and then to integrate them.
00;46;40;03 - 00;46;44;21
And so that's the beauty of this corporate
00;46;44;22 - 00;46;50;26
venture capital open innovation model is
you don't have to sort of reorganize
00;46;50;26 - 00;46;56;20
your corporation into skunkworks
or into R&D labs or into sandboxes.
00;46;56;21 - 00;47;01;29
You can use investments
in startup companies as multiple sandboxes
00;47;01;29 - 00;47;05;03
for experimentation, potentially failure.
00;47;05;03 - 00;47;10;21
But, you know, the cost of the failure
of an investment in corporate venture
00;47;10;21 - 00;47;13;23
capital is so dramatically lower
00;47;13;29 - 00;47;16;25
than the cost of spinning up an innovation
00;47;16;25 - 00;47;20;03
within the corporate structure
and then failing.
00;47;20;17 - 00;47;24;04
And so that's the virtue of this model
in terms
00;47;24;04 - 00;47;28;29
of of risk versus
reward in terms of innovation.
00;47;28;29 - 00;47;29;16
So Bill,
00;47;29;16 - 00;47;33;28
and I think about developing some of
these new innovations or capabilities,
00;47;34;01 - 00;47;36;14
you know, coming back to a few things
you've said already,
00;47;36;14 - 00;47;41;14
it feels like more organizations
than ever are working with technology
00;47;41;14 - 00;47;44;17
vendors, technology partners
to actually augment their capabilities
00;47;44;17 - 00;47;46;13
versus
doing some of these things in house.
00;47;46;13 - 00;47;50;06
And as you've said,
the whole market is kind of a wash
00;47;50;06 - 00;47;53;09
with all these, you know, startups
who are trying
00;47;53;10 - 00;47;58;13
to have some new piece of value
that they're creating now.
00;47;58;13 - 00;48;01;23
Now, I'm curious, you've been doing this
a long time.
00;48;01;23 - 00;48;03;01
From a VC perspective,
00;48;03;01 - 00;48;07;00
I'm sure you've heard more pitches
than almost anyone in the game.
00;48;07;09 - 00;48;10;13
And so to capitalize
00;48;10;13 - 00;48;15;08
on what I'll call your what I imagine
is an extremely finely tuned BS detector,
00;48;15;12 - 00;48;18;12
what should what should business leaders
and tech leaders
00;48;18;13 - 00;48;23;02
be listening for or asking
when someone is pitching them?
00;48;23;03 - 00;48;27;27
You know, the hottest new capability to
bring into their organization as a vendor?
00;48;29;14 - 00;48;32;00
Yeah, the
00;48;32;00 - 00;48;35;17
you know, the the reality is
that entrepreneurs
00;48;35;17 - 00;48;39;26
do have a tendency to exaggerate,
shall we say.
00;48;40;18 - 00;48;44;02
And so that is a that is a challenge for
00;48;44;08 - 00;48;47;18
for investors and for,
you know, customers.
00;48;47;19 - 00;48;50;25
The the best way, the best way to test
00;48;50;26 - 00;48;55;03
an entrepreneur
is to talk to their current customers.
00;48;55;13 - 00;48;59;13
And so I you know, you have got to
00;48;59;14 - 00;49;04;16
you've you've got to make sure that the,
the entrepreneur of the company
00;49;04;16 - 00;49;09;18
is actually delivering real value to,
you know, to customers
00;49;09;18 - 00;49;13;11
as a way of validating whether they can
deliver real value to you.
00;49;13;27 - 00;49;17;15
And then the other side of it is
you've got to develop
00;49;17;15 - 00;49;21;25
a mechanism
for validating within your own company.
00;49;22;01 - 00;49;26;14
And so you've got to have some form
of proof of concept
00;49;26;14 - 00;49;31;23
or trial or a pilot mechanism
whenever you're dealing with innovation.
00;49;31;23 - 00;49;32;26
And so
00;49;33;24 - 00;49;37;27
unfortunately
some companies they you know,
00;49;37;28 - 00;49;41;06
they read the headlines and they say, oh,
you know, we got to have that.
00;49;41;06 - 00;49;45;03
And so they initiate this massive,
you know,
00;49;45;04 - 00;49;49;06
sort of corporate wide
initiative to adopt,
00;49;49;08 - 00;49;52;19
you know, this new solution,
this new technology, this new approach.
00;49;52;19 - 00;49;55;19
And that never works.
00;49;55;23 - 00;49;59;06
What, what, you know,
what you need to do is figure out a way.
00;49;59;06 - 00;50;03;01
Again, back to the sandbox analogy,
where you can
00;50;03;01 - 00;50;06;19
test it out in a real world environment.
00;50;06;19 - 00;50;11;19
That is your real world
as a corporation to see
00;50;11;20 - 00;50;15;26
is it going to fit within what you do
as a corporation?
00;50;16;08 - 00;50;20;17
And so yes, it may work technically,
00;50;20;17 - 00;50;25;17
but does it work
in terms of the organizational workflow,
00;50;26;06 - 00;50;29;04
or is the organization
00;50;29;04 - 00;50;33;24
going to have to sort of twist itself
unnaturally in order
00;50;33;24 - 00;50;38;23
to make the workflow of this innovation
work for their organization?
00;50;38;23 - 00;50;43;26
And so that's an element
that's harder to predict in advance
00;50;44;18 - 00;50;48;21
that you really have to test
in order to know if it's going to work.
00;50;48;21 - 00;50;54;06
But as a corporation,
you never want to sort of wholesale adopt
00;50;54;06 - 00;50;58;00
an innovation, hoping,
hoping that it's going to work
00;50;58;02 - 00;51;02;01
that's,
you know, absolutely a recipe for failure.
00;51;04;18 - 00;51;06;03
When, when, when that happens.
00;51;06;03 - 00;51;09;03
And I'm sure it happens
more often than we would prefer.
00;51;09;26 - 00;51;12;10
Is it is it impatience?
00;51;12;10 - 00;51;13;29
Is it management?
00;51;13;29 - 00;51;14;20
Hubris?
00;51;14;20 - 00;51;17;22
Is it not knowing the recipe
for success? Why?
00;51;17;25 - 00;51;18;26
Why does it happen?
00;51;18;26 - 00;51;22;15
And is it just a matter of having
the patience and doing these things?
00;51;22;15 - 00;51;25;23
Or is there some sort of secret sauce
that's particularly difficult
00;51;25;23 - 00;51;28;23
for making this successful?
00;51;29;10 - 00;51;31;28
Well, it's both sides of this equation.
00;51;31;28 - 00;51;35;23
On the one hand,
there's pressure to innovate, right?
00;51;35;24 - 00;51;38;25
So if you're a public company,
whatever your board,
00;51;38;25 - 00;51;42;23
your investors, your shareholders,
the media,
00;51;43;12 - 00;51;46;12
they, you know,
puts pressure on you to innovate.
00;51;46;15 - 00;51;51;04
And that relates to every company
has pressure to grow.
00;51;51;04 - 00;51;56;20
And so you've got pressure to grow
your revenues and improve your margins.
00;51;56;20 - 00;51;59;22
So you have all these pressures
on the corporate side.
00;51;59;22 - 00;52;04;05
And so toying with experimenting
00;52;04;05 - 00;52;07;15
with innovation
is not going to move the needle.
00;52;07;15 - 00;52;13;20
And so, you know, you've got this dilemma
at senior management to say
00;52;13;21 - 00;52;17;25
if I just toy with this innovation
it's not going to move the needle.
00;52;17;25 - 00;52;19;19
And so why do I waste my time.
00;52;19;19 - 00;52;23;17
And so again,
that relates to a lack of patience
00;52;23;17 - 00;52;28;02
and or a lack of successful mechanisms
for knowing
00;52;28;03 - 00;52;33;21
how to start progress and integrate
over some period of time.
00;52;33;21 - 00;52;37;03
And so, you know, what the best
00;52;37;03 - 00;52;40;23
corporations have created
00;52;40;23 - 00;52;44;00
that, that pathway for innovation
00;52;44;00 - 00;52;49;07
such that right
now, the other end of that spectrum
00;52;49;07 - 00;52;53;24
is corporations
running pilots forever and ever and ever.
00;52;54;14 - 00;52;59;13
And and you know,
which is which is hell for both sides.
00;52;59;13 - 00;53;03;16
So startups, you know, hate the idea
00;53;03;16 - 00;53;08;02
of getting trapped in this pilot
hell that corporations create for them.
00;53;08;02 - 00;53;12;10
And similarly, corporations get frustrated
00;53;12;10 - 00;53;17;09
with their innovation process
when they get stuck in this, you know,
00;53;17;11 - 00;53;22;12
pilot cycle that never enables them
to to integrate more broadly.
00;53;22;12 - 00;53;28;10
And so we talk with our corporate partners
about designing protocols and systems
00;53;28;10 - 00;53;34;23
and methodologies
for the defining pilots to,
00;53;34;27 - 00;53;38;29
you know, tightly enough
and executing them fast enough
00;53;39;00 - 00;53;41;29
that you can come to a decision quickly
enough.
00;53;41;29 - 00;53;44;29
You know, you have a yes no decision.
00;53;45;01 - 00;53;48;22
One of the problems is once
you start a pilot,
00;53;48;23 - 00;53;51;28
there's organizational pressure
00;53;52;00 - 00;53;55;07
to say, well, we didn't make a mistake.
00;53;55;07 - 00;54;01;00
And so it's just a matter of doing
more pilots, and then we'll finally prove
00;54;01;00 - 00;54;04;27
that we didn't make a mistake
chasing this opportunity.
00;54;04;27 - 00;54;11;09
And so, you know, you've got to be willing
to say, no, it's not going to work.
00;54;11;09 - 00;54;12;23
Let's move on.
00;54;12;23 - 00;54;17;22
You know, let's celebrate
the fact that we failed, okay.
00;54;18;02 - 00;54;22;24
And, you know, when have you ever heard
that inside of an organization.
00;54;22;25 - 00;54;26;23
But it you know, it should be the culture
of the organization
00;54;26;24 - 00;54;32;19
that you know how to get to a quick
no around implementing an innovation.
00;54;33;09 - 00;54;35;20
And so similarly,
00;54;35;20 - 00;54;38;26
you've got to figure out
how to get to a fast. Yes.
00;54;39;03 - 00;54;41;21
In terms of moving the needle.
00;54;41;21 - 00;54;45;27
And so those are mechanisms
and methodologies,
00;54;45;28 - 00;54;50;07
sort of new muscles
that corporations need to develop
00;54;50;07 - 00;54;54;01
in order to accelerate innovation
inside the organization.
00;54;54;26 - 00;54;58;04
I like your use of the word
quick and fast there,
00;54;58;04 - 00;55;02;05
especially in light of our conversation
earlier about speed,
00;55;02;14 - 00;55;05;14
you know, and the rate of technology
increased, just, you know,
00;55;05;23 - 00;55;07;16
continuing to press forward.
00;55;07;16 - 00;55;11;14
Is that speed something you see
continuing to advance?
00;55;11;21 - 00;55;12;03
You know,
00;55;12;03 - 00;55;15;12
I don't want to use the word indefinitely,
but for the foreseeable future,
00;55;16;01 - 00;55;16;29
is it cyclical.
00;55;16;29 - 00;55;20;04
And we're about to see some sort of cliff
and reckoning in terms of
00;55;20;04 - 00;55;24;24
how quickly businesses
are actually able to digest this stuff.
00;55;24;24 - 00;55;28;17
And it necessarily, at some point
is going to stutter or slow down.
00;55;30;19 - 00;55;31;19
Oh my God.
00;55;31;19 - 00;55;36;20
I wish there was some scenario in which,
you know, anything was going to slow down.
00;55;36;20 - 00;55;40;23
But, you know, we are a, you know, the
00;55;40;23 - 00;55;45;23
the nature of the information technologies
that we've developed
00;55;45;23 - 00;55;50;08
over the last 40 years
or so have forced us
00;55;50;10 - 00;55;53;22
to just repeatedly run
00;55;53;22 - 00;55;57;04
twice as fast
just to stay in the same place.
00;55;57;06 - 00;56;02;04
And, you know, you think back,
you know, chunks of of your career
00;56;02;04 - 00;56;07;03
and you know what
what everybody experiences,
00;56;07;05 - 00;56;11;23
if you're at all close
to sort of the cutting edge
00;56;11;28 - 00;56;15;17
of technology and innovation, is that
00;56;16;02 - 00;56;19;17
every innovation just makes us have
00;56;19;17 - 00;56;23;09
to run twice
as fast to stay in the same place.
00;56;23;27 - 00;56;28;22
And and so, you know,
the good news is we have tools,
00;56;29;08 - 00;56;34;02
you know, these various technology tools
that enable us to run twice as fast.
00;56;34;02 - 00;56;38;20
And so, you know, we've got these
AI agents that enable us to run
00;56;38;21 - 00;56;42;27
twice as fast,
and we've got these communication tools
00;56;42;27 - 00;56;47;13
that enable us to connect with the world,
you know, faster
00;56;47;13 - 00;56;53;08
to propagate innovation
into absorb information twice as fast.
00;56;53;08 - 00;56;57;23
So so sorry, but it's we're
00;56;57;24 - 00;57;03;03
we're always going to be running,
you know, going to have to run faster.
00;57;03;12 - 00;57;07;07
You know again
fortunately we've got you know,
00;57;07;09 - 00;57;10;08
these these technologies that enable us
00;57;10;08 - 00;57;15;13
that are going to enable us to run faster
looking for sort of
00;57;15;14 - 00;57;19;19
an a, a metaphorical exoskeleton
00;57;21;00 - 00;57;21;23
that we can all
00;57;21;23 - 00;57;26;08
put on as well
as, you know, a brain enhancer.
00;57;26;08 - 00;57;29;22
And that's what these technologies
theoretically are doing for us.
00;57;30;09 - 00;57;33;00
And by the way, that's
that's exactly what I expected you to say.
00;57;33;00 - 00;57;34;23
But I had I had to ask the question.
00;57;34;23 - 00;57;38;13
And what I really wanted to get at,
Bill, is the implication of that is,
00;57;39;02 - 00;57;43;01
you know, what do you see
is the core enabling technologies.
00;57;43;01 - 00;57;46;29
And by the way,
is it fundamentally about technologies
00;57;46;29 - 00;57;51;00
or is it about process
and having the right, you know, systems
00;57;51;00 - 00;57;54;15
and structures and playbooks in place
00;57;54;15 - 00;57;57;15
to be able to do these things
faster as well?
00;57;58;05 - 00;58;00;13
Well, it's, you know, it's
00;58;00;13 - 00;58;03;25
it's fundamentally about competition.
00;58;04;19 - 00;58;07;19
It's fundamentally about,
00;58;07;23 - 00;58;10;13
you know, I've got I've got to run
00;58;10;13 - 00;58;14;15
faster than the guy next to me
and he's got to run faster than run.
00;58;14;16 - 00;58;19;03
I mean, it's what makes us have to run
00;58;19;04 - 00;58;24;16
faster
is that we live in a competitive world.
00;58;24;16 - 00;58;27;18
And so, you know, good news, bad news.
00;58;27;20 - 00;58;28;16
Right?
00;58;28;16 - 00;58;32;15
So the good news,
the good news is the competition forces
00;58;32;15 - 00;58;35;15
us to be more innovative.
00;58;35;15 - 00;58;40;00
But the bad news is,
you know, we're never going to wind up
00;58;40;00 - 00;58;43;08
with a kind of Wall-E
00;58;43;10 - 00;58;48;03
kind of society,
you know, to use that Disney movie.
00;58;48;05 - 00;58;51;23
I mean, you hear people, there are some,
00;58;52;19 - 00;58;55;19
you know, pundits who think, oh,
00;58;55;28 - 00;58;58;28
you know, AI technology is going to,
00;58;59;00 - 00;59;01;28
you know, mean
that everybody loses their job
00;59;01;28 - 00;59;06;15
and they're going to be lying around
having robots take care of them.
00;59;06;21 - 00;59;10;02
And, you know, playing video games,
all that.
00;59;10;11 - 00;59;15;23
And no, no, I mean, it's
I have no doubt in my mind
00;59;16;01 - 00;59;21;00
that all of these new technologies
are going to make us all
00;59;21;00 - 00;59;25;21
just that much more competitive
and meaning
00;59;25;21 - 00;59;30;19
that we're going to have to figure out
a way to work harder,
00;59;30;19 - 00;59;34;04
while we also try
to figure out how to work smarter.
00;59;34;10 - 00;59;40;18
But, you know, forget about the five
Minute manager or whatever it was.
00;59;40;19 - 00;59;43;23
I mean, it it, you know, that's
00;59;43;23 - 00;59;46;27
not that's not the direction
that this is taking us.
00;59;48;10 - 00;59;48;22
Well.
00;59;48;22 - 00;59;51;29
And that's the harder versus smarter
piece is,
00;59;52;19 - 00;59;55;13
you know, there's a very cynical lens
on that as well, I guess.
00;59;55;13 - 00;59;57;20
And that's the part I'm grappling with is
how do you end up?
00;59;57;20 - 01;00;00;12
So you're not in a world where, you know,
you have to say to your kids,
01;00;00;12 - 01;00;01;21
you know, surprise,
01;00;01;21 - 01;00;05;02
you know, for you to stay competitive
and relevant in the workforce,
01;00;05;02 - 01;00;07;21
you're going to have to work way
harder and,
01;00;07;21 - 01;00;10;27
you know, way longer hours
than I ever did.
01;00;10;28 - 01;00;14;00
Like, it just it feels like
01;00;14;00 - 01;00;17;10
it's not quite the world
we should want to be building.
01;00;17;10 - 01;00;17;17
Right?
01;00;17;17 - 01;00;20;21
Like we should want to be able
to have technology and process
01;00;20;21 - 01;00;25;13
that enables us to do more
in a smarter way without necessarily,
01;00;25;18 - 01;00;28;18
you know, reducing our quality of
life, if I can call it that.
01;00;29;18 - 01;00;30;02
Yeah.
01;00;30;02 - 01;00;34;01
I mean, again, you know, there will be,
01;00;34;17 - 01;00;37;13
you know, sort of layers of behavior
01;00;37;13 - 01;00;40;13
in the workforce of the future.
01;00;40;27 - 01;00;43;08
And, you know, there will be
01;00;43;08 - 01;00;47;02
a, a layer that does have
01;00;47;07 - 01;00;50;14
a, you know, whatever, 9 to 5 job.
01;00;51;01 - 01;00;56;23
And, you know, and within that layer,
the people that get promoted
01;00;56;24 - 01;01;01;07
will be the ones who know how to work
smarter. But,
01;01;02;11 - 01;01;04;21
you know, there will always be a layer
01;01;04;21 - 01;01;08;09
of wherever, whatever you want
to, wherever you want to draw the line.
01;01;08;09 - 01;01;11;09
But of the sort of executives
01;01;11;09 - 01;01;14;09
who are the drivers who
01;01;14;10 - 01;01;16;25
who cannot limit
01;01;16;25 - 01;01;20;05
their efforts to 9 to 5 in order
01;01;20;05 - 01;01;24;15
to compete with the rest of the world,
I you know,
01;01;24;16 - 01;01;28;19
I just think that's the unfortunate
reality of
01;01;28;21 - 01;01;32;17
of innovation and competition.
01;01;32;22 - 01;01;37;08
And, and so I think some of us
01;01;37;08 - 01;01;42;18
will be better at managing
that than others.
01;01;43;05 - 01;01;46;01
And I, you know, I wish there were
01;01;46;01 - 01;01;51;12
a way to provide better support for,
01;01;52;06 - 01;01;56;16
for senior executives,
for startup founders,
01;01;56;16 - 01;01;59;26
for all of those people who
01;01;59;27 - 01;02;03;00
work till they're burnt out,
01;02;04;05 - 01;02;05;16
which is, you know,
01;02;05;16 - 01;02;09;24
not good, not healthy
and not even productive.
01;02;10;11 - 01;02;13;11
And and so maybe, maybe
01;02;13;11 - 01;02;18;15
we will find an agent that,
you know, can monitor
01;02;18;15 - 01;02;22;14
each of us in such a way to say, hey,
guess what?
01;02;22;15 - 01;02;27;05
You know, your productivity
is, you know, is going down here.
01;02;27;07 - 01;02;30;02
And if you really want to be competitive,
01;02;30;02 - 01;02;33;02
you're going to go to sleep right
now, right?
01;02;33;23 - 01;02;36;04
You know, I mean, I yeah.
01;02;36;04 - 01;02;40;29
So we're you know,
we're at the edge of having those coaches
01;02;41;19 - 01;02;44;29
individualized,
you know, executive coaches
01;02;44;29 - 01;02;47;29
that can that can ensure
01;02;48;00 - 01;02;51;08
that we we are
01;02;51;26 - 01;02;54;19
you know, we we sort of compete
01;02;54;19 - 01;02;59;07
aggressively
but don't damage the rest of our world,
01;02;59;09 - 01;03;03;10
our health,
our family or whatever as a result.
01;03;06;01 - 01;03;06;25
So maybe.
01;03;06;25 - 01;03;09;10
As we move to sort
of conclude the conversation,
01;03;10;25 - 01;03;12;24
I'd love to have you reframe that
a little bit, Bill,
01;03;12;24 - 01;03;16;20
because I suspect the note
you want to end on is not necessarily,
01;03;16;21 - 01;03;19;27
you know, hey, business leaders,
hey, founders work until you drop.
01;03;19;27 - 01;03;21;06
And that's the way to be competitive.
01;03;21;06 - 01;03;22;14
And I don't think that's
what you're saying.
01;03;22;14 - 01;03;27;03
But if I reframe that,
what is your best advice these days
01;03;27;03 - 01;03;31;05
to to that audience in terms
of how to get ahead, how to work smarter
01;03;31;05 - 01;03;35;02
and how to be more, you know, competitive
in today's environment.
01;03;35;24 - 01;03;39;27
The, the, the single factor that I see
01;03;41;00 - 01;03;47;13
very commonly
that causes burnout is the inability
01;03;47;14 - 01;03;52;12
of some people
to give up some amount of control.
01;03;52;20 - 01;03;56;09
And so where you see the burnout
01;03;56;11 - 01;04;01;15
happening in executives, in founders
and entrepreneurs,
01;04;01;16 - 01;04;05;22
is people who think
01;04;05;22 - 01;04;09;29
that they are the critical factor
in getting things done.
01;04;10;00 - 01;04;14;23
They're the only ones who are, you
know, talented enough to execute
01;04;14;23 - 01;04;20;08
on this particular aspect
and are not willing to relinquish control.
01;04;20;08 - 01;04;22;07
They're not willing to delegate.
01;04;22;07 - 01;04;27;16
They're not willing to invest
the resources in building the right team.
01;04;27;22 - 01;04;31;12
And so I think it is
01;04;31;12 - 01;04;34;26
absolutely pod possible
01;04;34;26 - 01;04;37;26
and certainly the right model
01;04;38;21 - 01;04;41;23
to proceed with innovation
01;04;41;23 - 01;04;44;23
around building a team of people
01;04;44;26 - 01;04;49;18
that you've got as partners in leadership
01;04;49;28 - 01;04;53;11
to help execute the innovation
01;04;53;11 - 01;04;56;20
strategy,
the growth strategy for your organization.
01;04;56;20 - 01;05;02;07
If you think you are the sort of
single point of failure that you are
01;05;02;07 - 01;05;05;28
the single most important controller
01;05;05;28 - 01;05;09;24
of the future of your organization, almost
01;05;09;24 - 01;05;13;10
certainly
you will drive yourself into a wall.
01;05;13;22 - 01;05;17;04
And so, you know, the personality
01;05;17;04 - 01;05;22;20
of executives who succeed
are those that have the ability
01;05;22;20 - 01;05;27;19
to find talent and trust talent
and execute as a team,
01;05;27;20 - 01;05;32;26
rather than trying to keep control
of their organization
01;05;32;26 - 01;05;38;04
in the face of dynamic change
that we're going through.
01;05;38;07 - 01;05;42;10
That really resonates with me
and is something that, you know,
01;05;42;11 - 01;05;46;05
I certainly have experience with
and have seen countless times as well.
01;05;46;15 - 01;05;48;20
Just to pressure test that a little bit.
01;05;48;20 - 01;05;49;28
I'm curious.
01;05;49;28 - 01;05;52;10
To me, the number one objection
you'll get there is.
01;05;52;10 - 01;05;55;19
But Bill, I really can do it best.
01;05;55;19 - 01;05;58;28
And no team can do this as well as I can
01;05;58;29 - 01;06;03;08
if I seed control
and therefore I have to do it myself.
01;06;03;15 - 01;06;05;16
You know, if you felt that,
how did you get over it?
01;06;05;16 - 01;06;08;16
If you've heard that,
how do you respond to it?
01;06;08;21 - 01;06;12;20
Well,
so to the extent that you retain control
01;06;13;04 - 01;06;16;15
of any aspect of the future,
01;06;16;15 - 01;06;20;09
then because you are only one human being,
you will
01;06;20;10 - 01;06;24;05
by definition limit
the possibilities for your organization.
01;06;24;24 - 01;06;30;08
So to the extent that you can find talent
and develop talent
01;06;30;08 - 01;06;33;17
and build a team that you can delegate to,
01;06;33;18 - 01;06;36;21
then you do not limit your upside.
01;06;36;26 - 01;06;40;18
But if you
if you choose to maintain control,
01;06;40;18 - 01;06;43;19
you are by definition
limiting your upside.
01;06;43;19 - 01;06;45;27
And so what do you want?
01;06;45;27 - 01;06;48;29
I mean, do you want to have the potential
01;06;48;29 - 01;06;53;14
for unlimited upside
or do you want control?
01;06;55;10 - 01;06;56;08
I love that
01;06;56;08 - 01;06;59;09
it's extremely succinct and powerful.
01;06;59;09 - 01;07;02;11
And as I said, it
resonates with me very deeply.
01;07;02;14 - 01;07;04;08
Bill, I'm just going to move to a wrap up.
01;07;04;08 - 01;07;05;00
But before we do,
01;07;05;00 - 01;07;08;13
is there anything we didn't discuss today
that you were hoping that we could cover?
01;07;12;14 - 01;07;14;26
You know, we
01;07;14;26 - 01;07;17;29
we we, you know, we one of my
01;07;18;10 - 01;07;21;10
one of my sort of.
01;07;23;00 - 01;07;27;16
Significant issues is this question of
is there a new
01;07;27;27 - 01;07;31;17
is there a different architecture
for AI and robotics
01;07;31;17 - 01;07;37;08
that has not yet been discovered
that is going to significantly disrupt
01;07;37;13 - 01;07;40;26
the current architectures
and the current incumbents?
01;07;41;17 - 01;07;45;19
And I believe there is and in various
01;07;45;20 - 01;07;48;19
AI settings, I have raised what I call
01;07;48;19 - 01;07;53;18
the yellow jacket paradox,
the yellow jacket being, you know,
01;07;53;19 - 01;07;59;07
an insect of flying insect that is a pest
for a lot of us when we're outdoors.
01;07;59;07 - 01;08;05;18
And the yellow Jacket paradox came about
when I was having breakfast on this,
01;08;05;19 - 01;08;09;26
you know, in a sidewalk cafe
in Boston on a beautiful full day,
01;08;11;00 - 01;08;15;13
and, and having
a discussion about the future of AI.
01;08;15;20 - 01;08;18;26
And we're sitting there having breakfast
and all of a sudden
01;08;18;26 - 01;08;24;20
a yellow jacket comes in and starts
attacking our breakfast, and,
01;08;24;23 - 01;08;27;23
you know, so we're swatting it away and,
01;08;28;21 - 01;08;30;21
you know,
trying to continue the conversation,
01;08;30;21 - 01;08;33;24
but it keeps coming back
and we're swatting it away.
01;08;33;24 - 01;08;38;16
And we can't interestingly,
we can't actually hit this yellow jacket.
01;08;38;17 - 01;08;39;28
I mean, it's right there.
01;08;39;28 - 01;08;43;18
But as fast as we try to swat,
we can't hit it.
01;08;43;29 - 01;08;48;09
And then brilliantly,
the yellow jacket brings in a friend.
01;08;48;09 - 01;08;50;25
And so now we got two yellow jackets.
01;08;50;25 - 01;08;53;09
And so you know we swatted away.
01;08;53;09 - 01;08;56;20
But no it gets to Tina's breakfast
and it gets to my breakfast.
01;08;56;20 - 01;08;58;03
And we sweat it away.
01;08;58;03 - 01;08;59;28
And it keeps on coming.
01;08;59;28 - 01;09;04;17
And and so on reflection
we think to ourselves,
01;09;04;18 - 01;09;08;10
oh my God, that yellow jacket is
01;09;08;11 - 01;09;11;13
incredibly smart and capable.
01;09;11;16 - 01;09;14;00
But how big is its brain?
01;09;14;00 - 01;09;15;26
How big is its brain?
01;09;15;26 - 01;09;19;00
You know, it's
brain is smaller than a grain of sand.
01;09;19;09 - 01;09;22;14
How much energy does its brain take?
01;09;22;24 - 01;09;24;01
Virtually nothing.
01;09;24;01 - 01;09;27;03
I mean, and it flies. Right? Okay.
01;09;27;19 - 01;09;29;20
And it flies.
01;09;29;20 - 01;09;33;03
So how can it possibly be
01;09;33;23 - 01;09;37;02
that we need a gigawatt data center
01;09;37;04 - 01;09;40;18
in order to replicate conversations?
01;09;41;16 - 01;09;46;06
We need billions of dollars
to create these humanoid robots
01;09;46;06 - 01;09;49;25
that can kind of replicate what humans do.
01;09;50;06 - 01;09;54;15
How is it that we can't replicate
the brain of a yellow jacket?
01;09;55;13 - 01;09;58;13
So clearly the architecture
01;09;58;19 - 01;10;02;16
of a yellow jackets intelligence is,
01;10;03;26 - 01;10;06;21
you know, many orders of magnitude
01;10;06;21 - 01;10;10;02
smarter and more efficient than anything
we've come up
01;10;10;02 - 01;10;14;01
with, with all of our research
and all of our billions of dollars
01;10;14;02 - 01;10;17;08
of study, of artificial intelligence.
01;10;17;10 - 01;10;21;16
And so the mere fact of the existence
of that
01;10;21;17 - 01;10;26;06
yellow jacket says to me,
there's a better architecture.
01;10;26;16 - 01;10;32;06
And so the question is, what's
it going to take to get to that better
01;10;32;06 - 01;10;36;21
architecture, and what's going to happen
to the current incumbents
01;10;36;21 - 01;10;40;05
when we get that better architecture? So,
01;10;41;20 - 01;10;45;13
you know,
I would love to have more conversations
01;10;45;13 - 01;10;50;09
with more people who are really,
really smart about AI architectures
01;10;50;09 - 01;10;53;15
and the reasoning of robots
01;10;54;09 - 01;10;57;17
in order to sort of reconcile
01;10;57;18 - 01;11;01;12
what I see
as this huge discrepancy between,
01;11;01;24 - 01;11;06;29
you know, that tiny little yellow jacket
and the billions and billions of dollars
01;11;06;29 - 01;11;11;04
that we're spending
on compute and AI design.
01;11;13;00 - 01;11;14;13
Does that worry you
01;11;14;13 - 01;11;18;01
when it comes to this kind of data center
and infrastructure build out?
01;11;18;01 - 01;11;21;10
You talked earlier about,
you know, the importance of efficiency
01;11;21;10 - 01;11;24;03
and keeping temperatures
down in all of this.
01;11;24;03 - 01;11;27;14
Is there a world where we spend
all this money and we make all of this
01;11;27;14 - 01;11;31;10
technology functionally obsolete
in the next handful of years?
01;11;33;01 - 01;11;34;07
Absolutely no.
01;11;34;07 - 01;11;36;01
I mean, you know, two things.
01;11;36;01 - 01;11;40;01
One, because it takes so long
to build data centers, I think,
01;11;41;07 - 01;11;44;19
you know, a lot of the data centers
that are being proposed will never
01;11;44;20 - 01;11;50;28
get built because, you know, because one,
we're going to get more efficiency.
01;11;50;28 - 01;11;53;28
And two, you know,
we're just not going to have enough money,
01;11;54;12 - 01;11;57;11
but that's another
that's another question.
01;11;57;16 - 01;12;00;19
But if you think back to, for example,
01;12;00;19 - 01;12;04;11
the the internet, you know, bubble, we,
01;12;04;12 - 01;12;09;00
we built out massive infrastructure
in terms of optical fiber
01;12;09;17 - 01;12;15;09
and connectivity that wound up going dark
when the bubble burst.
01;12;15;09 - 01;12;20;13
And so it took, you know, we had all of
that infrastructure in place,
01;12;20;27 - 01;12;25;17
but it took many years before
we were able to then utilize it again.
01;12;25;19 - 01;12;28;18
I think we probably will have
01;12;28;29 - 01;12;31;29
some number of, you know, empty
01;12;32;00 - 01;12;35;27
data centers and, you know, quiet data
centers.
01;12;36;09 - 01;12;40;21
And, you know, as this buildout happens
and we make a transition
01;12;40;21 - 01;12;42;13
to the next generation.
01;12;42;13 - 01;12;46;17
So, you know, you've got, on the one
hand, quantum computing
01;12;46;17 - 01;12;50;24
that is probably going to make a dent
in the way we compute.
01;12;51;14 - 01;12;54;03
And then on the other hand,
new architectures
01;12;54;03 - 01;12;57;26
that are likely to make a dent
in the way we compute.
01;12;57;26 - 01;13;00;12
And then sort of up the middle,
01;13;00;12 - 01;13;04;19
you've got these technologies
that should increase efficiency,
01;13;05;23 - 01;13;06;05
you know,
01;13;06;05 - 01;13;11;12
of data centers,
which may reduce the requirements for
01;13;12;06 - 01;13;16;06
all of the data centers that are being,
you know, proposed right now.
01;13;16;07 - 01;13;20;09
So I think we will see
sort of a lot of turmoil
01;13;20;09 - 01;13;24;24
in that market over the next,
you know, three, 4 or 5 years.
01;13;25;27 - 01;13;28;01
You know, again,
01;13;28;01 - 01;13;30;07
overall, the momentum will continue,
01;13;30;07 - 01;13;34;24
but there will be some people who,
you know, lose a bunch of money
01;13;34;27 - 01;13;37;27
making bets
that are not going to play out.
01;13;38;23 - 01;13;39;06
Right.
01;13;39;06 - 01;13;43;04
And it sounds like you sort of file
that under the the price of innovation.
01;13;43;05 - 01;13;43;12
Right.
01;13;43;12 - 01;13;44;22
Like if you're going to keep building out
01;13;44;22 - 01;13;46;25
these new technologies,
there have to be losers.
01;13;46;25 - 01;13;50;25
And that's just, you know, a tax
you have to pay, right?
01;13;50;26 - 01;13;53;00
You know, creative destruction. Maybe
01;13;54;12 - 01;13;55;06
that's,
01;13;55;06 - 01;13;58;06
you know, that's what it's all about.
01;13;58;09 - 01;13;59;21
I love. It, Bill.
01;13;59;21 - 01;14;02;12
I wanted to say such a big thank you
for coming on to the program today.
01;14;02;12 - 01;14;03;17
I really appreciate your insight.
01;14;03;17 - 01;14;07;06
We covered a lot of ground and it's been
a really fascinating discussion.
01;14;08;19 - 01;14;09;23
Thank you so very much.
01;14;09;23 - 01;14;12;23
I really appreciate it
and really enjoyed the conversation.
01;14;14;18 - 01;14;18;06
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