Analyst Perspective

The key is in anticipation.

“We all encounter unexpected changes and our responses are often determined by how we perceive and understand those changes. We react according to the unexpected occurrence. Business organizations are no different.

When a company faces a major technology disruption in its markets – one that could fundamentally change the business or impact its processes and technology – the way its management perceive and understand the disruption influences how they describe and plan for it. In other words, the way management sets the context of a disruption – the way they frame it – shapes the strategy they adopt. Technology leaders can vastly influence business strategy by adopting a proactive approach to understanding disruptive and innovative technologies by simply adopting a process to review and evaluate technology impacts to the company’s lines of business.”

Troy Cheeseman
Practice Lead, Infrastructure & Operations Research
Info-Tech Research Group

Executive Summary

Your Challenge

• New technology can hit like a meteor. Not only disruptive to IT, technology provides opportunities for organization-wide advantage.
• Your role is endangered. If you don’t prepare for the most disruptive technologies, you could be overshadowed. Don’t let the chief marketing officer (CMO) set the technological innovation agenda.

Common Obstacles

• Predicting the future isn’t easy. Most IT leaders fail to realize how quickly technology increases in capability. Even for the tech savvy, predicting which specific technologies will become disruptive is difficult.
• Communication is difficult when the sky is falling. Even forward-looking IT leaders struggle with convincing others to devote time and resources to monitoring technologies with a formal process.

Info-Tech’s Approach

• Identify, resolve, and evaluate. Use an annual process as described in this blueprint: a formal evaluation of new technology that turns analysis into action.
• Lead the analysis from IT. Establish a team to carry out the annual process as a cure for the causes of “airline magazine syndrome” and to prevent it from happening in the future.
• Train your team on the patterns of progress, track technology over time in a central database, and read Info-Tech’s analysis of upcoming technology.
• Create your KPIs. Establish your success indicators to create measurable value when presenting to your executive.
• Produce a comprehensive proof-of-concept plan that will allow your company to minimize risk and maximize reward when engaging with new technology.

Info-Tech Insight

Proactively monitoring, evaluating, and exploiting disruptive tech isn’t optional.
This will protect your role, IT’s role, and the future of the organization.

A diverse working group maximizes the insight brought to bear.
An IT background is not a prerequisite.

The best technology is only the best when it brings immediate value.
Good technology might not be ready; ready technology might not be good.

Review

We help IT leaders make the most of disruptive impacts.

This research is designed for:

Target Audience: CIO, CTO, Head of Infrastructure

This research will help you:

• Develop a process for anticipating, analyzing, and exploiting disruptive technology.
• Communicate the business case for investing in disruptive technology.
• Categorize emerging technologies to decide what to do with them.
• Develop a plan for taking action to exploit the technology that will most affect your organization.

Problem statement:

As a CIO, there is a need to move beyond day-to-day technology management with an ever-increasing need to forecast technology impacts. Not just from a technical perspective but to map out the technical understandings aligned to potential business impacts and improvements. Technology transformation and innovation is moving more quickly than ever before and as an innovation champion, the CIO or CTO should have foresight in specific technologies with the understanding of how the company could be disrupted in the near future. Foresight + Current Technology + Business Understanding = Understanding the Business Disruption. This should be a repeatable process, not an exception or reactionary response.

Insight Summary

Establish the core working group, select a leader, and select a group of visionaries to help brainstorm emerging technologies.

The right team matters. A core working group will keep focus through the process and a leader will keep everyone accountable. Visionaries are out-of-the-box thinkers and once they understand how to think like a "futurists," they will drive the longlist and shortlist actions.

Train the group to think like futurists

To keep up with exponential technology growth you need to take a multi-threaded approach.

Brainstorm about creating a better future; begin brainstorming an initial longlist

Establish the longlist. The longlist helps create a holistic view of most technologies that could impact the business. Assigning values and quadrant scoring will shortlist the options and focus your PoC option.

Converge everyone’s longlists

Long to short...that's the short of it. Using SWOT, value readiness, and quadrant mapping review sessions will focus the longlist, creating a shortlist of potential POC candidates to review and consider.

Evaluate the shortlist

There is no such thing as a risk-free endeavor. Use a systematic process to ensure that the risks your organization takes have the potential to produce significant rewards.

Define your PoC list and schedule

Don’t be afraid to fail! Inevitably, some proof-of-concept projects will not benefit the organization. The projects that are successful will more than cover the costs of the failed projects. Roll out small scale and minimize losses.

Finalize, present the plan to stakeholders, and repeat!

Don't forget the C-suite. Effectively communicate and present the working group’s finding with a well-defined and succinct presentation. Start the process again!

1. Identify
   • Establish the core working group and select a leader; select a group of visionaries
   • Train the group to think like futurists
   • Hold your initial meeting
2. Resolve
• Create and winnow a longlist
• Assess and create the shortlist
3. Evaluate
   • Create process maps
   • Develop proof of concept charter

The Key Is in Anticipation!

Use Info-Tech’s approach for analyzing disruptive technology in your own disruptive tech working group

Four key challenges make it essential for you to become a champion for exploiting disruptive technology

1. New technology can hit like a meteor. It doesn’t only disrupt IT; technology provides opportunities for organization-wide advantage.
2. Your role is endangered. If you don’t prepare for the most disruptive technologies, you could be overshadowed. Don’t let the CMO rule technological innovation.
3. Predicting the future isn’t easy. Most IT leaders fail to realize how quickly technology increases in capability. Even for the tech savvy, predicting which specific technologies will become disruptive is difficult.
4. Communication is difficult when the sky is falling. Even forward-looking IT leaders struggle with convincing others to devote time and resources to monitoring emerging technologies with a formal process.

“Look, you have never had this amount of opportunity for innovation. Don’t forget to capitalize on it. If you do not capitalize on it, you will go the way of the dinosaur.”
– Dave Evans, Co-Founder and CTO, Stringify

Technology can hit like a meteor

“ By 2025:

• 38.6 billion smart devices will be collecting, analyzing, and sharing data.
• The web hosting services market is to reach $77.8 billion in 2025.
• 70% of all tech spending is expected to go for cloud solutions.
• There are 1.35 million tech startups.
• Global AI market is expected to reach $89.8 billion.”

– Nick Gabov

IT Disruption

Technology disrupts IT by:

• Affecting the infrastructure and applications that IT needs to use internally.
• Affecting the technology of end users that IT needs to support and deploy, especially for technologies with a consumer focus.
• Allowing IT to run more efficiently and to increase the efficiency of other business units.
• Example: The rise of the smartphone required many organizations to rethink endpoint devices.

Business Disruption

Technology disrupts the business by:

• Affecting the viability of the business.
• Affecting the business’ standing in relation to competitors that better deal with disruptive technology.
• Affecting efficiency and business strategy. IT should have a role in technology-related business decisions.
• Example: BlackBerry failed to anticipate the rise of the apps ecosystem. The company struggled as it was unable to react with competitive products.

Senior IT leaders are expected to predict disruptions to IT and the business, while tending to today’s needs

You are expected to be both a firefighter and a forecaster

• Anticipating upcoming disruptions is part of your job, and you will be blamed if you fail to anticipate future business disruptions because you are focusing on the present.
• However, keeping IT running smoothly is also part of your job, and you will be blamed if today’s IT environment breaks down because you are focusing on the future.

You’re caught between the present and the future

• You don’t have a process that anticipates future disruptions but runs alongside and integrates with operations in the present.
• You can’t do it alone. Tending to both the present and the future will require a team that can help you keep the process running.

Info-Tech Insight

Be prepared when disruptions start coming down, even though it isn’t easy. Use this research to reduce the effort to a simple process that can be performed alongside everyday firefighting.

Make disruptive tech analysis and exploitation part of your innovation agenda

Organizations without high satisfaction with IT innovation leadership are only 20% likely to be highly satisfied with IT

“You rarely see a real-world correlation of .86!”
– Mike Battista, Staff Scientist, Cambridge Brain Sciences, PhD in Measurement

There is a clear relationship between satisfaction with IT and the IT department’s innovation leadership.

Prevent “airline magazine syndrome” by proactively analyzing disruptive technologies

“The last thing the CIO needs is an executive saying ‘I don’t what it is or what it does…but I want two of them!”
– Tim Lalonde

Airline magazine syndrome happens to IT leaders caught between the business and IT. It usually occurs in this manner:

1. While on a flight, a senior executive reads about an emerging technology that has exciting implications for the business in an airline magazine.
2. The executive returns and approaches IT, demanding that action be taken to address the disruptive technology – and that it should have been (ideally) completed already.

Without a Disruptive Technology Exploitation Plan:

“I don’t know”

With a Disruptive Technology Exploitation Plan:

“Here in IT, we have already considered that technology and decided it was overhyped. Let me show you our analysis and invite you to join our working group.”

OR

“We have already considered that technology and have started testing it. Let me show you our testing lab and invite you to join our working group.”

Info-Tech Insight

Airline magazine syndrome is a symptom of a wider problem: poor CEO-CIO alignment. Solve this problem with improved communication and documentation. Info-Tech’s disruptive tech iterative process will make airline magazine syndrome a thing of the past!

IT leaders who do not keep up with disruptive technology will find their roles diminished

“Today’s CIO dominion is in a decaying orbit with CIOs in existential threat mode.”
– Ken Magee

Protect your role within IT

• IT is threatened by disruptive technology:
  • Trends like cloud services, increased automation, and consumerization reduce the need for IT to be involved in every aspect of deploying and using technology.
  • In the long term, machines will replace even intellectually demanding IT jobs, such as infrastructure admin and high-level planning.
• Protect your role in IT by:
  • Anticipating new technology that will disrupt the IT department and your place within it.
  • Defining new IT roles and responsibilities that accurately reflect the reality of technology today.
  • Having a process for the above that does not diminish your ability to keep up with everyday operations that remain a priority today.

Protect your role against other departments

• Your role in the business is threatened by disruptive technology:
  • The trends that make IT less involved with technology allow other executives – such as the CMO – to make IT investments.
  • As the CMO gains the power and data necessary to embrace new trends, the CIO and IT managers have less pull.
• Protect your role in the business by:
  • Being the individual to consult about new technology. It isn’t just a power play; IT leaders should be the ones who know technology thoroughly.
  • Becoming an indispensable part of the entire business’ innovation strategy through proposing and executing a process for exploiting disruptive technology.

IT leaders who do keep up have an opportunity to solidify their roles as experts and aggregators

“The IT department plays a critical role in [innovation]. What they can do is identify a technology that potentially might introduce improvements to the organization, whether it be through efficiency, or through additional services to constituents.”
– Michael Maguire, Management Consultant

The contemporary CIO is a conductor, ensuring that IT works in harmony with the rest of the business.

The new CIO is a conductor, not a musician. The CIO is taking on the role of a business engineer, working with other executives to enable business innovation.

The new CIO is an expert and an aggregator. Conductor CIOs increasingly need to keep up on the latest technologies. They will rely on experts in each area and provide strategic synthesis to decide if, and how, developments are relevant in order to tune their IT infrastructure.

The pace of technological advances makes progress difficult to predict

“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century – it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).”
– Ray Kurzweil

Technology advances exponentially. Rather than improving by the same amount of capability each year, it multiplies in capability each year.

Think like a futurist to anticipate technology before it goes mainstream.

Exponential growth happens much faster than linear growth, especially when it hits the knee of the curve. Even those who acknowledge exponential growth underestimate how capabilities can improve.

To predict new advances, turn innovation into a process

“We spend 70 percent of our time on core search and ads. We spend 20 percent on adjacent businesses, ones related to the core businesses in some interesting way. Examples of that would be Google News, Google Earth, and Google Local. And then 10 percent of our time should be on things that are truly new.”
– Eric Schmidt, Google

• Don’t get caught in the trap of refining your core processes to the exclusion of innovation. You should always be looking for new processes to improve, new technology to pilot, and where possible, new businesses to get into.
• Devote about 10% of your time and resources to exploring new technology: the potential rewards are huge.

You and your team need to analyze technology every year to predict where it’s going.

Foundational technologies, such as computing power, storage, and networks, are improving exponentially. Disruptive technologies are specific manifestations of foundational advancements. Advancements of greater magnitude give rise to more manifestations; therefore, there will be more disruptive technologies every year. There is a lot of noise to cut through. Remember Google Glasses? As technology becomes ubiquitous and consumerization reigns, everybody is a technology expert. How do you decide which technologies to focus on?

Protect IT and the business from disruption by implementing a simple, repeatable disruptive technology exploitation process

“One of the most consistent patterns in business is the failure of leading companies to stay at the top of their industries when technologies or markets change […] Managers must beware of ignoring new technologies that can’t initially meet the needs of their mainstream customers.”
– Joseph L. Bower and Clayton M. Christensen

Info-Tech Insight

Use Info-Tech’s tools and templates, along with this storyboard, to walk you through creating and executing an exploitation process in six steps.

Create measurable value by using Info-Tech’s process for evaluating the disruptive potential of technology

No business process is perfect. Use Info-Tech’s Proof of Concept Template to create a disruptive technology proof of concept implementation plan. Harness your company’s internal wisdom to systematically vet new technology. Engage only in calculated risk and maximize potential benefit.

Info-Tech Insight

Inevitably, some proof of concept projects will not benefit the organization. The projects that are successful will more than cover the costs of the failed projects. Roll out small scale and minimize losses.

Establish your key performance indicators (KPIs)

Key performance indicators allow for rigorous analysis, which generates insight into utilization by platform and consumption by business activity.

• Brainstorm metrics that indicate when process improvement is actually taking place.
• Have members of the group pitch KPIs; the facilitator should record each suggestion on a whiteboard.
• Make sure to have everyone justify the inclusion of each metric: how does it relate to the improvement that the proof of concept project is intended to drive? How does it relate to the overall goals of the business?
• Include a list of KPIs, along with a description and a target (ensuring that it aligns with SMART metrics).

Communicate your plan with the Disruptive Technology Exploitation Plan Template

Use the Disruptive Technology Exploitation Plan Template to summarize everything that the group does. Update the report continuously and use it to show others what is happening in the world of disruptive technology.

Whether you need a process for exploiting disruptive technology, or an analysis of current trends, Info-Tech can help

Two sets of research make up Info-Tech’s disruptive technology coverage:

This storyboard, and the associated tools and templates, will walk you through creating a disruptive technology working group of your own.

Blueprint deliverables

Each step of this blueprint is accompanied by supporting deliverables to help you accomplish your goals:

Key deliverable:

The Disruptive Technology Exploitation Plan Template acts as an implementation plan for developing a long-term strategy for monitoring and implementing disruptive technologies.

Proof of Concept Template

The Proof of Concept Template will guide you through the creation of a minimum-viable proof-of-concept project.

Executive Presentation

The Disruptive Technology Executive Presentation Template will assist you to present an overview of the disruptive technology process, outlining the value to your company.

Disruptive Technology Value Readiness & SWOT Analysis Tool

The Disruptive Technology Value Readiness & SWOT Analysis Tool will assist you to systematize notional evaluations of the value and readiness of potential disruptive technologies.

Disruptive Technology Research Database Tool

The Disruptive Technology Research Database Tool will help you to keep track of the independent research that is conducted by members of the disruptive technology exploitation working group.

Disruptive Technology Shortlisting Tool

The Disruptive Technology Shortlisting Tool will help you to codify the results of the disruptive technology working group's longlist winnowing process.

Disruptive Technology Look to the Past Tool

The Disruptive Technology Look to the Past Tool will assist you to collect reasonability test notes when evaluating potential disruptive technologies.

Info-Tech offers various levels of support to best suit your needs

DIY Toolkit

“Our team has already made this critical project a priority, and we have the time and capability, but some guidance along the way would be helpful.”

Guided Implementation

“Our team knows that we need to fix a process, but we need assistance to determine where to focus. Some check-ins along the way would help keep us on track.”

Workshop

“We need to hit the ground running and get this project kicked off immediately. Our team has the ability to take this over once we get a framework and strategy in place.”

Consulting

“Our team does not have the time or the knowledge to take this project on. We need assistance through the entirety of this project.”

Diagnostics and consistent frameworks used throughout all four options

Guided Implementation

What does a typical GI on this topic look like?

A Guided Implementation (GI) is a series of calls with an Info-Tech analyst to help implement our best practices in your organization.

A typical GI is 8 to 12 calls over the course of 4 to 6 months.

Workshop Overview

Contact your account representative for more information.
workshops@infotech.com 1-888-670-8889

Exploit Disruptive Infrastructure Technology

Disrupt or be disrupted.

Identify

Create your working group.

PHASE 1

Use Info-Tech’s approach for analyzing disruptive technology in your own disruptive tech working group

1. Identify
   1. Establish the core working group and select a leader; select a group of visionaries
   2. Train the group to think like futurists
   3. Hold your initial meeting
2. Resolve
   1. Create and winnow a longlist
   2. Assess and create the shortlist
3. Evaluate
   1. Create process maps
   2. Develop proof of concept charter

The Key Is in Anticipation!

Phase 1: Identify

Create your working group.

Activities:

Step 1.1: Establish the core working group and select a leader; select a group of visionaries
Step 1.2: Train the group to think like futurists
Step 1.3: Hold the initial meeting

This step involves the following participants:

IT Infrastructure Manager

CIO or CTO

Potential members and visionaries of the working group

Outcomes of this step:

• Establish a team of subject matter experts that will evaluate new, emerging, and potentially disruptive technologies.
• Establish a process for including visionaries from outside of the working group who will provide insight and direction.
• Introduce the core working group members.
• Gain a better understanding of how technology advances.
• Brainstorm a list of organizational processes.
• Brainstorm an initial longlist.

Step 1.1

Establish the core working group and select a leader; select a group of visionaries.

Activities:

• Articulate the long- and short-term benefits and costs to the entire organization
• Gain support by articulating the long- and short-term benefits and costs to the IT department
• Gain commitment from key stakeholders and executives
• Help stakeholders understand what goes into formally exploiting disruptive tech by reviewing this process
• Establish the core working group and select a leader
• Create a schedule with a time commitment appropriate to your organization’s size; it doesn’t need to take long
• Select a group of visionaries external to IT to help the working group brainstorm disruptive technologies

This step involves the following participants:

• IT Infrastructure Manager
• CIO or CTO
• Potential members and visionaries of the working group

Outcomes of this step

• Establish a team of subject matter experts that will evaluate new, emerging, and potentially disruptive technologies.
• Establish a process for including visionaries from outside of the working group that will provide insight and direction.

1.1.A Articulate the long- and short-term benefits and costs to the entire organization

A cost/benefit analysis will give stakeholders a picture of how disruptive technology could affect the business. Use the chart as a starting point and customize it based on your organization.

1.1.B Gain support by articulating the long- and short-term benefits and costs to the IT department

A cost/benefit analysis will give stakeholders a picture of how disruptive technology could affect the business. Use the chart as a starting point and customize it based on your organization.

1.1.C Gain commitment from key stakeholders and executives

Gaining approval from executives and key stakeholders is the final obstacle. Ensure that you cover the following items to have the best chance for project approval.

• Use a sample deck similar to this section for gaining buy-in, ensuring that you add/remove information to make it specific to your organization. Cover this section, including:
  • Who: Who will lead the team and who will be on it (working group)?
  • What: What resources will be required by the team (costs)?
  • Where/When: How often and where will the team meet (meeting schedule)?
  • Why: Why is there a need to exploit disruptive technology (benefits and examples)?
  • How: How is the team going to exploit disruptive technology (the process)?
• Go through this blueprint prior to presenting the plan to stakeholders so that you have a strong understanding of the details behind each process and tool.
• Frame the first iteration of the cycle as a pilot program. Use the completed results of the pilot to establish exploiting disruptive technology as a necessary company initiative.

Insert the resources required by the disruptive tech exploitation team into Section 1.5 of the Disruptive Technology Exploitation Plan Template. Have executives sign-off on the project in Section 1.6.

Disruption has undermined some of the most successful tech companies

“The IT department plays a critical role in [innovation]. What they can do is identify a technology that potentially might introduce improvements to the organization, whether it be through efficiency or through additional services to constituents.”
- Michael Maguire, Management Consultant

VoIP’s transformative effects

Disruptive technology:
Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) is a modern means of making phone calls through the internet by sending voice packets using data, as opposed to the traditional circuit transmissions of the PSTN.

Who won:
Organizations that realized the cost savings that VoIP provided for businesses with a steady internet connection saved as much as 60% on telephony expenses. Even in the early stages, with a few more limitations, organizations were able to save a significant amount of money and the technology has continued to improve.

Who lost?
Telecom-related companies that failed to realize VoIP was a potential threat to their market, and organizations that lacked the ability to explore and implement the disruptive technology early.

Digital photography — the new norm

Disruptive technology:
Digital photography refers to the storing of photographs in a digital format, as opposed to traditional photography, which exposes light to sensitive photographic film.

Who won:
Photography companies and new players that exploited the evolution of data storage and applied it to photography succeeded. Those that were able to balance providing traditional photography and exploiting and introducing digital photography, such as Nikon, left competitors behind. Smartphone manufacturers also benefited by integrating digital cameras.

Who lost?
Photography companies, such as Kodak, that failed to respond to the digital revolution found themselves outcompeted and insolvent.

1.1.D Help stakeholders understand what goes into formally exploiting disruptive tech by reviewing this process

There are five steps to formally exploiting disruptive technology, each with its own individual outputs and tools to take analysis to the next level.

Info-Tech Insight

Before going to stakeholders, complete the entire blueprint to better understand the tools and outputs of the process.

1.1.E Establish the core working group and select a leader

• Selecting your core membership for the working group is a critical step to the group’s success. Ensure that you satisfy the following criteria:
  • This is a team of subject matter experts. They will be overseeing the learning and piloting of disruptive technologies. Their input will also be valuable for senior executives and for implementing these technologies.
  • Choose members that can take time away from firefighting tasks to dedicate time to meetings.
  • It may be necessary to reach outside of the organization now or in the future for expertise on certain technologies. Use Info-Tech as a source of information.

• Once the team is established, you must decide who will lead the group. Ensure that you satisfy the following criteria:
  • A leader should be credible, creative, and savvy in both technology and business.
  • The leader should facilitate, acting as both an expert and an aggregator of the information gathered by the team.

Choose a compelling name

The working group needs a name. Be sure to select one with a positive connotation within your organization.

Section 1.3 of the Disruptive Technology Exploitation Plan Template

1.1.F Create a schedule with a time commitment appropriate to your organization’s size; it doesn’t need to take long

Time the disruptive technology working group’s meetings to coincide and integrate with your organization’s strategic planning — at least annually.

“Regardless of size, it’s incumbent upon every organization to have some familiarity of what’s happening over the next few years, [and to try] to anticipate what some of those trends may be. […] These trends are going to accelerate IT’s importance in terms of driving business strategy.”
– Vern Brownell, CEO, D-Wave

Section 1.4 of the Disruptive Technology Exploitation Plan Template

1.1.G Select a group of visionaries external to IT to help the working group brainstorm disruptive technologies

Selecting advisors for your group is an ongoing step, and the roster can change.

Ensure that you satisfy the following criteria:

• Look beyond IT to select a team representing several business units.
• Check for self-professed “geeks” and fans of science fiction that may be happy to join.
• Membership can be a reward for good performance.

This group does not have to meet as regularly as the core working group. Input from external advisors can occur between meetings. You can also include them on every second or third iteration of the entire process.

However, the more input you can get into the group, the more innovative it can become.

“It is … important to develop design fictions based on engagement with directly or indirectly implicated publics and not to be designed by experts alone.”
– Emmanuel Tsekleves, Senior Lecturer in Design Interactions, University of Lancaster

Section 1.3 of the Disruptive Technology Exploitation Plan Template

The following case study illustrates the innovative potential that is created when you include a diverse group of people

INDUSTRY - Chip Manufacturing
SOURCE - Clayton Christensen, Intel

To achieve insight, you need to collaborate with people from outside of your department.

Challenge

• Headquartered in California, through the 1990s, Intel was the largest microprocessor chip manufacturer in the world, with revenue of $25 billion in 1997.
• All was not perfect, however. Intel faced a challenge from Cyrix, a manufacturer of low-end chips. In 18 months, Cyrix’s share of the low-margin entry-level chip manufacturing business mushroomed from 10% to 70%.

Solution

• Troubled by the potential for significant disruption of the microprocessor market, Intel brought in external consultants to hold workshops to educate managers about disruptive innovation.
• Managers would break into groups and discuss ways Intel could facilitate the disruption of its competitors. In one year, Intel hosted 18 workshops, and 2,000 managers went through the process.

Results

• Intel launched the Celeron chip to serve the lower end of the PC market and win market share back from Cyrix (which no longer exists as an independent company) and other competitors like AMD.
• Within one year, Intel had captured 35% of the market.

“[The models presented in the workshops] gave us a common language and a common way to frame the problem so that we could reach a consensus around a counterintuitive course of action.” – Andy Grove, then-CEO, Intel Corporation

Phase 1: Identify

Create your working group.

Activities:

Step 1.1: Establish the core working group and select a leader; select a group of visionaries
Step 1.2: Train the group to think like futurists
Step 1.3: Hold the initial meeting

This step involves the following participants:

• IT Infrastructure Manager
• CIO or CTO
• Potential members and visionaries of the working group

Outcomes of this phase:

• Establish a team of subject matter experts that will evaluate new, emerging, and potentially disruptive technologies.
• Establish a process for including visionaries from outside of the working group who will provide insight and direction.
• Introduce the core working group members.
• Gain a better understanding of how technology advances.
• Brainstorm a list of organizational processes.
• Brainstorm an initial longlist.

Step 1.2

Train the group to think like futurists

Activities:

1. Look to the past to predict the future:
   • Step 1: Review the technology opportunities you missed
   • Step 2: Review and record what you liked about the tech
   • Step 3: Review and record your dislikes
   • Step 4: Record and test the reasonability
2. Crash course on futurology principles
3. Peek into the future

This step involves the following participants:

• IT Infrastructure Manager
• CIO or CTO
• Core working group members
• Visionaries

Outcomes of this step

• Team members thinking like futurists
• Better understanding of how technology advances
• List of past examples and characteristics

Info-Tech Insight

Business buy-in is essential. Manage your business partners by providing a summary of the EDIT methodology and process. Validate the process value, which will allow you create a team of IT and business representatives.

1.2 Train the group to think like futurists

1 hour

Ensure the team understands how technology advances and how they can identify patterns in upcoming technologies.

1. Lead the group through a brainstorming session.
2. Follow the next phases and steps.
3. This session should be led by someone who can facilitate a thought-provoking discussion.
4. This training deck finishes with a video.

Input

• Facilitated creativity
• Training deck [following slides]

Output

• Inspiration
• Anonymous ideas

Materials

• Futurist training “steps”
• Pen and paper

Participants

• Core working group
• Visionaries
• Facilitator

1.2.A Look to the past to predict the future

30 minutes

Use the Disruptive Technology Research Look to the Past Tool to record your output.

Input

• Facilitated creativity
• Speaker’s notes

Output

• Inspiration
• Anonymous ideas
• Recorded missed opportunities
• Recorded positive points
• Recorded dislikes
• Reasonability test list

Materials

• Futurist training “steps”
• Pen and paper
• “Look to the Past” tool

Participants

• Core working group
• Visionaries
• Facilitator

Understand how the difference between linear and exponential growth will completely transform many organizations in the next decade

“The last ten years have seen exponential growth in research on disruptive technologies and their impact on industries, supply chains, resources, training, education and employment markets … The debate is still open on who will be the winners and losers of future industries, but what is certain is that change has picked up pace and we are now in a new technology revolution whose impact is potentially greater than the industrial revolution.”
– Gary L. Evans

Exponential advancement will ensure that life in the next decade will be very different from life today.

• Linear growth happens one step at a time.
• The difference between linear and exponential is hard to notice, at first.
• We are now at the knee of the curve.

What about email?

• Consider the amount of email you get daily
• Double it
• Triple it

Exponential growth happens much faster than linear growth, especially when it hits the knee of the curve. Technology grows exponentially, and we are approaching the knee of the curve.

This graph is adapted from research by Ray Kurzweil.

Growth: Linear vs. Exponential

1.2.B Crash course on futurology principles

1 hour

“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).”
- Ray Kurzweil

Review the differences between exponential and linear growth

The pace of technological advances makes progress difficult to predict.

Technology advances exponentially. Rather than improving by the same amount of capability each year, it multiplies in capability each year.

Think like a futurist to anticipate technology before it goes mainstream.

Exponential growth happens much faster than linear growth, especially when it hits the knee of the curve. Even those who acknowledge exponential growth underestimate how capabilities can improve.

The following case study illustrates the rise of social media providers

“There are 7.7 billion people in the world, with at least 3.5 billion of us online. This means social media platforms are used by one in three people in the world and more than two-thirds of all internet users.”
– Esteban Ortiz-Ospina

The following case study illustrates the rapid growth of Machine to Machine (M2M) connections

Ray Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns

“Ray Kurzweil has been described as ‘the restless genius’ by The Wall Street Journal, and ‘the ultimate thinking machine’ by Forbes. He was ranked #8 among entrepreneurs in the United States by Inc Magazine, calling him the ‘rightful heir to Thomas Edison,’ and PBS included Ray as one of 16 ‘revolutionaries who made America,’ along with other inventors of the past two centuries.”
Source: KurzweilAI.net

Growth is linear?

“Information technology is growing exponentially. That’s really my main thesis, and our intuition about the future is not exponential, it’s really linear. People think things will go at the current pace …1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 30 steps later, you’re at 30.”

Better IT strategy enables future business innovation

“The reality of information technology like computers, like biological technologies now, is it goes exponentially … 2, 4, 8, 16. At step 30, you’re at a billion, and this is not an idle speculation about the future.” [emphasis added]

“When I was a student at MIT, we all shared a computer that cost tens of millions of dollars. This computer [pulling his smartphone out of his pocket] is a million times cheaper, a thousand times more powerful — that’s a billion-fold increase in MIPS per dollar, bits per dollar… and we’ll do it again in 25 years.”
Source: “IT growth and global change: A conversation with Ray Kurzweil,” McKinsey & Company

1.2.C Peak into the future

1 hour

Leverage industry roundtables and trend reports to understand the art of the possible

• Uncover important business and industry trends that can inform possibilities for technology disruption.
• Market research is critical in identifying factors external to your organization and identifying technology innovation that will provide a competitive edge. It’s important to evaluate the impact each trend or opportunity will have in your organization and market.

Visit Info-Tech’s Trends & Priorities Research Center

Visit Info-Tech’s Industry Coverage Research to get started.

Phase 1: Identify

Create your working group

Activities:

Step 1.1: Establish the core working group and select a leader; select a group of visionaries
Step 1.2: Train the group to think like futurists
Step 1.3: Hold the initial meeting

This step involves the following participants:

• IT Infrastructure Manager
• CIO or CTO
• Potential members and visionaries of the working group

Outcomes of this phase:

• Establish a team of subject matter experts that will evaluate new, emerging, and potentially disruptive technologies.
• Establish a process for including visionaries from outside of the working group who will provide insight and direction.
• Introduce the core working group members.
• Gain a better understanding of how technology advances.
• Brainstorm a list of organizational processes.
• Brainstorm an initial longlist.

Info-Tech Insight

Establish the longlist. The longlist help create a holistic view of most technologies that could impact the business. Assigning values and quadrant scoring will shortlist the options and focus your PoC option.

Step 1.3

Hold the initial meeting

Activities:

1. Create an agenda for the meeting
2. Start the kick-off meeting with introductions and a recap
3. Brainstorm about creating a better future
4. Begin brainstorming an initial longlist
5. Have team members develop separate longlists for their next meeting

This step involves the following participants:

• IT Infrastructure Manager
• CIO or CTO
• Core working group members
• Visionaries

Outcomes of this step

• Introduce the core working group members
• Gain a better understanding of how technology advances
• Brainstorm a list of organizational processes
• Brainstorm an initial longlist

1.3.A Create an agenda for the meeting

1 hour

Kick-off this cycle of the disruptive technology process by welcoming your visionaries and introducing your core working group.

The purpose of the initial meeting is to brainstorm where new technology will be the most disruptive within the organization. You’ll develop two longlists: one of business processes and one of disruptive technology. These longlists are in addition to the independent research your core working group will perform before Phase 2.

• Find an outgoing facilitator. Sitting back will let you focus more on ideating, and an engaging presenter will help bring out ideas from your visionaries.
• The training deck (see step 1.2c) includes presenting a video. We’ve included some of our top choices for you to choose from.
  • Feel free to find your own video or bring in a keynote speaker.
  • The object of the video is to get the group thinking about the future.
  • Customize the training deck as needed.
• If a cycle has been completed, present your findings and all of the group’s completed deliverables in the first section.
• This session is the only time you have with your visionaries. Get their ideas on what technologies will be disruptive to start forming a longlist.

Info-Tech Insight

The disruptive tech team is prestigious. If your organization is large enough or has the resources, consider having this meeting in an offsite location. This will drive excitement to join the working group if the opportunity arises and incentivize good work.

Info-Tech Insight

The disruptive tech team is prestigious. If your organization is large enough or has the resources, consider having this meeting in an offsite location. This will drive excitement to join the working group if the opportunity arises and incentivize good work.

1.3.B Start the kick-off meeting with introductions and a summary of what work has been done so far

30 minutes

1. Start the meeting off with an icebreaker activity. This isn’t an ordinary business meeting – or even group – so we recommend starting off with an activity that will emphasize this unique nature. To get the group in the right mindset, try this activity:
   1. Go around the group and have people present:
   2. Their names and roles
   3. Pose some or all of the following questions/prompts to the group:
      • “Tell me about something you have created.”
      • “Tell me about a time you created a process or program considered risky.”
      • “Tell me about a situation in which you had to come up with several new ideas in a hurry. Were they accepted? Were they successful?”
      • “Tell me about a time you took a risk.”
      • “Tell me about one of your greatest failures and what you learned from it.”
2. Once everyone has been introduced, present any work that has already been completed.
   1. If you have already completed a cycle, give a summary of each technology that you investigated and the results from any piloting.
   2. If this is the first cycle for the working group, present the information decided in Step 1.1.

Input

• Disruptive technology exploitation plan

Output

• Networking
• Brainstorming

Materials

• Meeting agenda

Participants

• Core working group
• Visionaries
• Facilitator

1.3.C Brainstorm about creating a better future for the company, the stakeholders, and the employees

30 minutes

1. Have everyone put up at least two ideas for each chart paper.
2. Go around the room and discuss their ideas. You may generate some new ideas here.

These generated ideas are organizational processes that can be improved or disrupted with emerging technologies. This list will be referenced throughout Phases 2 and 3.

Input

• Inspiration
• Anonymous ideas

Output

• List of processes

Materials

• Chart paper and markers
• Pen and paper

Participants

• Core working group
• Visionaries

1.3.D Begin brainstorming a longlist of future technology, and discuss how these technologies will impact the business

30 minutes

• Use the Disruptive Technology Research Database Tool to organize technologies and ideas. Longstanding working groups can track technologies here over the course of several years, updating the tool between meetings.
• Guide the discussion with the following questions, and make sure to focus on the processes generated from Step 1.2.d.

Focus on

The Technology

• What is the technology and what does it do?
• What processes can it support?

Experts and Other Organizations

• What are the vendors saying about the technology?
• Are similar organizations implementing the technology?

Your Organization

• Is the technology ready for wide-scale distribution?
• Can the technology be tested and implemented now?

The Technology’s Value

• Is there any indication of the cost of the technology?
• How much value will the technology bring?

Download the Disruptive Technology Database Tool

Input

• Inspiration
• List of processes

Output

• Initial longlist

Materials

• Chart paper and markers
• Pen and paper
• Disruptive Technology Research Database Tool

Participants

• Core working group
• Visionaries

1.3.E Explore these sources to generate your disruptive technology longlist for the next meeting

30 Minutes

There are many sources of information on new and emerging technology. Explore as many sources as you can.

Science fiction is a valid source of learning. It drives and is influenced by disruptive technology.

“…the inventor of the first liquid-fuelled rocket … was inspired by H.G. Wells’ science fiction novel War of the Worlds (1898). More recent examples include the 3D gesture-based user interface used by Tom Cruise’s character in Minority Report (2002), which is found today in most touch screens and the motion sensing capability of Microsoft’s Kinect. Similarly, the tablet computer actually first appeared in Stanley Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) and the communicator – which we’ve come to refer today as the mobile phone – was first used by Captain Kirk in Star Trek (1966).”
– Emmanuel Tsekleves, senior lecturer, University of Lancaster

Right sources: blogs, tech news sites, tech magazines, the tech section of business sites, popular science books about technology, conferences, trade publications, and vendor announcements

Quantity over quality: early research is not the time to dismiss ideas.

Discuss with your peers: spark new and innovative ideas

Insert a brief summary of how independent research is conducted in Section 2.1 of the Disruptive Technology Exploitation Plan Template.

1.3.E (Cont.) Explore these sources to generate your disruptive technology longlist for the next meeting

30 Minutes

There are many sources of information on new and emerging technology. Use this list to kick-start your search.

• Technology journalists and bloggers are often on top of disruptive technologies and trends. Some sources we used for compiling our longlist include:
  • Ars Technica
  • Singularity Hub
  • Singularity Weblog
  • KurzweilAI
  • TechRepublic / Innovation
  • Transforming Network Infrastructure
  • r/Futurology
  • WIRED
• Vendors are also a valuable source of information, especially if they host webinars or publish whitepapers.
• Explore different academic organizations such as the IEEE and the Association of Computing Machinery.

Connect with practitioners that are worth their weight in Reddit gold. Check out topic-based LinkedIn groups and subreddits such as r/sysadmin and r/tech. People experienced with technology frequent these groups.

YouTube is for more than cat videos. Many vendors use YouTube for distributing their previous webinars. There are also videos showcasing various technologies that are uploaded by lecturers, geeks, researchers, and other technology enthusiasts.

Test your reasonability. Check your “Think Like a Futurist” Tool

Resolve

Evaluate Disruptive Technologies

PHASE 2

Phase 2: Resolve

Evaluate disrupted technologies

Activities:

Step 2.1: Create and Winnow a Longlist
Step 2.2: Assess Shortlist

Info-Tech Insight

Long to short … that’s the short of it. Using SWOT, value readiness, and quadrant mapping review sessions will focus the longlist, creating a shortlist of potential PoC candidates to review and consider.

This step involves the following participants:

• Core working group
• Infrastructure Management

Outcomes of this step:

• Finalized longlist
• Finalized shortlist
• Initial analysis of each technology on the shortlist

Step 2.1

Create and winnow a longlist

Activities:

1. Converge everyone’s longlists
2. Narrow technologies from the longlist down to a shortlist using Info-Tech’s Disruptive Technology Shortlisting Tool
3. Use the shortlisting tool to help participants visualize the potential
4. Input the technologies on your longlist into the Disruptive Technology Shortlisting Tool to produce a shortlist

This step involves the following participants:

• Core working group members

Outcomes of this step:

• Finalized longlist
• Finalized shortlist
• Initial analysis of each technology on the shortlist

2.1 Organize a meeting with the core working group to combine your longlists and create a shortlist

1 hour

Plan enough time to talk about each technology on the list. Each technology was included for a reason.

• Start with the longlist. Review the longlist compiled at the initial meeting, and then have everyone present the lists that they independently researched.
• Focus on the company’s context. Make sure that the working group analyzes these disruptive technologies in the context of the organization.
• Start to compile the shortlist. Begin narrowing down the longlist by excluding technologies that are not relevant.

Disruptive Technology Exploitation Plan Template

2.1.A Converge the longlists developed by your team

90 minutes

• Start with the longlist developed at the initial meeting. Write this list on the whiteboard.
• If applicable, have a member present the longlist that was created in the last cycle. Remove technologies that:
  • Are no longer disruptive (e.g. have been implemented or rejected).
  • Have become foundational.
• Eliminate redundancy: remove items that are very similar.
• Have members “pitch” items on their lists:
  • Explain why their technologies will be disruptive (2-5 minutes maximum)
  • Add new technologies to the whiteboard
• Record the following for metrics:
  • Each presented technology
  • Reasons the technology could be disruptive
  • Source of the information
• Use Info-Tech’s Disruptive Technology Research Database Tool as a starting point.

Insert the final longlist into Section 2.2 of your Disruptive Technology Exploitation Plan Template.

Input

• Longlist developed at first meeting
• Independent research
• Previous longlist

Output

• Finalized longlist

Materials

• Disruptive Technology Research Database Tool
• Whiteboard and markers
• Virtual whiteboard

Participants

• Core working group

Review the list of processes that were brainstormed by the visionary group, and ask for input from others

• IT innovation is most highly valued by the C-suite when it improves business processes, reduces costs, and improves core products and services.
• By incorporating this insight into your working group’s analysis, you help to attract the attention of senior management and reinforce the group’s necessity.
• Any input you can get from outside of IT will help your group understand how technology can be disruptive.
  • Visionaries consulted in Phase 1 are a great source for this insight.
• The list of processes that they helped to brainstorm in Step 1.2 reflects processes that can be impacted by technology.
• Info-Tech’s research has shown time and again that both CEOs and CIOs want IT to innovate around:
  • Improving business processes
  • Improving core products and services
  • Reducing costs

N=364 CXOs & CIOs from the CEO-CIO Alignment Diagnostic Questions were asked on a 7-point scale of 1 = Not at all to 7 = Very strongly. Results are displayed as percentage of respondents selecting 6 or 7.

Info-Tech Insight

The disruptive tech team is prestigious. If your organization is large enough or has the resources, consider having this meeting in an offsite location. This will drive excitement to join the working group if the opportunity arises and incentivize good work.

2.1.B Narrow technologies from the longlist down to a shortlist using Info-Tech’s Disruptive Technology Shortlisting Tool

90 minutes

To decide which technology has potential for your organization, have the working group or workshop participants evaluate each technology:

1. Record each potentially disruptive technology in the longlist on a whiteboard.
2. Making sure to carefully consider the meaning of the terms, have each member of the group evaluate each technology as “high” or “low” along each of the axes, innovation and transformation, on a piece of paper.
3. The facilitator collects each piece of paper and inputs the results by technology into the Disruptive Technology Shortlisting Tool.

Insert the final shortlist into Section 2.2 of your Disruptive Technology Exploitation Plan Template.

Input

• Longlist
• Futurist brainstorming

Output

• Shortlist

Materials

• Disruptive Technology Research Database Tool
• Whiteboard and markers
• Virtual whiteboard

Participants

• Core working group

Disruptive technologies are innovative and transformational

Info-Tech Insight

Technology can be transformational but not innovative. Not every new technology is disruptive. Even where technology has improved the efficiency of the business, if it does this in an incremental way, it might not be worth exploring using this storyboard.

2.1.C Use the shortlisting tool to help participants visualize the potential

1 hour

Use the Disruptive Technology Shortlisting Tool, tabs 2 and 3.

Assign quadrants

• Input group members’ names and the entire longlist (up to 30 technologies) into tab 2 of the Disruptive Technology Shortlisting Tool.
• On tab 3 of the Disruptive Technology Shortlisting Tool, input the quadrant number that corresponds to the innovation and transformation scores each participant has assigned to each technology.

Note

This is an assessment meant to serve as a guide. Use discretion when moving forward with a proof-of-concept project for any potentially disruptive technology.

2.1.D Use the Disruptive Technology Shortlisting Tool to produce a shortlist

1 hour

Use the Disruptive Technology Shortlisting Tool, tabs 3 and 4.

Use the populated matrix and the discussion list to arrive at a shortlist of four to six potentially disruptive technologies.

• The tool populates each quadrant based on how many votes it received in the voting exercise.
• Technologies selected for a particular quadrant by a majority of participants are placed in the quadrant on the graph. Where there was no consensus, the technology is placed in the discussion list.
• Technologies in the upper right quadrant – high transformation and high innovation – are more likely to be good candidates for a proof-of-concept project. Those in the bottom left are likely to be poor candidates, while those in the remaining quadrants are strong on one of the axes and are unlikely candidates for further systematic evaluation.

Input the results of the vote into tab 3 of the Disruptive Technology Shortlisting Tool.

View the results on tab 4.

Phase 2: Resolve

Evaluate disrupted technologies

Activities:

Step 2.1: Create and Winnow a Longlist
Step 2.2:- Assess Shortlist

This step involves the following participants:

• Core working group
• Infrastructure Management

Outcomes of this step:

• Finalized longlist
• Finalized shortlist
• Initial analysis of each technology on the shortlist

Assess Shortlist

Activities:

1. Assess the value of each technology to your organization by breaking it down into quality and cost
2. Investigate the overall readiness of the technologies on the shortlist
3. Interpret each technology’s value score
4. Conduct a SWOT analysis for each technology on the shortlist
5. Use Info-Tech’s disruptive technology shortlist analysis to visualize the tool’s outputs
6. Select the shortlisted technologies you would like to move forward with

This step involves the following participants:

• Core working group members
• IT Management

Outcomes of this step:

• Finalized shortlist
• Initial analysis of each technology on the shortlist

2.2 Evaluate technologies based on their value and readiness, and conduct a SWOT analysis for each one

Use the Disruptive Technology Value-Readiness and SWOT Analysis Tool

• A technology monitor diagram prioritizes investment in technology by analyzing its readiness and value.
  • Readiness: how close the technology is to being practical and implementable in your industry and organization.
  • Value: how worthwhile the technology is, in terms of its quality and its cost.
• Value and readiness questionnaires are included in the tool to help determine current and future values for each, and the next four slides explain the ratings further.
• Categorize technology by its value-readiness score, and evaluate how much potential value each technology has and how soon your company can realize that value.
• Use a SWOT analysis to qualitatively evaluate the potential that each technology has for your organization in each of the four categories (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats).

The technology monitor diagram appears in tab 9 of the Disruptive Technology Value-Readiness and SWOT Analysis Tool

2.2.A Assess the value of each technology to your organization by breaking it down into quality and cost

1 hour

Update the Disruptive Technology Value-Readiness and SWOT Analysis Tool, tab 4.

Populate the chart to produce a score for each technology’s overall value to the company conceptualized as the interaction of quality and cost.

The value assessment is part of the Disruptive Technology Value-Readiness and SWOT Analysis Tool

Info-Tech Insight

Watch your costs: Technology that seems cheap at first can actually be expensive over time. Be sure to account for operational and opportunity costs as well.

2.2.B Investigate the overall readiness of the technologies on the shortlist

1 hour

Update the Disruptive Technology Value-Readiness and SWOT Analysis Tool, tab 4.

Overall Readiness

Age

How much time has the technology had to mature? Older technology is more likely to be ready for adoption.

Venture Capital

The amount of venture capital gathered by important firms in the space is an indicator of market faith.

Market Size

How big is the market for the technology? It is more difficult to break into a giant market than a niche market.

Market Players

Have any established vendors (Microsoft, Facebook, Google, etc.) thrown their weight behind the technology?

Fragmentation

A large number of small companies in the space indicates that the market has yet to reach equilibrium.

The readiness assessment is part of the Disruptive Technology Value-Readiness and SWOT Analysis Tool

Use a variety of sources to populate the chart

Google is your friend: search each shortlisted technology to find details about its development and important vendors.

Websites like Crunchbase, VentureBeat, and Mashable are useful sources for information on the companies involved in a space and the amount of money they have each raised.

2.2.C Interpret each technology’s value score

1 hour

Insert the result of the SWOT analysis into tab 7 of Info-Tech’s Disruptive Technology Value-Readiness and SWOT Analysis Tool.

Visualize the results of the quality-cost analysis

• Quality and cost are independently significant; it is essential to understand how each technology stacks up on the axes.
• Use tab 6 of the Disruptive Technology Value-Readiness and SWOT Analysis Tool for an illustration of how quality and cost interact to produce each technology’s final position on the tech monitor graph.
• Remember: the score is notional and reflects the values that you have assigned. Be sure to treat it accordingly.

Green represents a technology that scores extremely high on one axis or the other, or quite high on both. These technologies are the best candidates for proof-of-concept projects from a value perspective.

Red represents a technology that has scored very low on both axes. These technologies will be expensive, time consuming, and of poor quality.

Yellow represents the fuzzy middle ground. These technologies score moderately on both axes. Be especially careful when considering the SWOT analysis of these technologies.

2.2.D Conduct a SWOT analysis for each technology on the shortlist

1 hour

Use tab 6 of the Disruptive Technology Value-Readiness and SWOT Analysis Tool.

A formal process for analyzing disruptive technology is the only way to ensure that it is taken seriously.

Write each technology as a heading on a whiteboard. Spend 10-15 minutes on each technology conducting a SWOT analysis together.

Consider four categories for each technology:

• Strengths: Current uses of the technology or supporting technology and ways in which it helps your organization.
• Weaknesses: Current limitations of the technology and challenges or barriers to adopting it in your organization.
• Opportunities: Potential uses of the technology, especially as it advances or improves.
• Threats: Potential negative disruptions resulting from the technology, especially as it advances or improves.

The list of processes generated at the cycle’s initial meeting is a great source for opportunities and threats.

Disruptive Technology Value-Readiness and SWOT Analysis Tool

2.2.E Use Info-Tech’s disruptive technology shortlist analysis to visualize the tool’s outputs

1 hour

Disruptive Technology Value-Readiness and SWOT Analysis Tool, tab 9

The tool’s final tab displays the results of the value-readiness analysis and the SWOT analysis in a single location.

Insert the shortlist analysis report into Section 3 of your Disruptive Technology Exploitation Plan Template.

2.2.F Select the shortlisted technologies you would like to move forward with

1 hour

Present your findings to the working group.

• The Disruptive Technology Value-Readiness and SWOT Analysis Tool aggregates your inputs in an easy-to-read, consistent way.
• Present the tool’s outputs to members of the core working group.
• Explain the scoring and present the graphic to the group. Go over each technology’s strengths and weaknesses as well as the opportunities and threats it presents/poses to the organization.
• Go through the proof-of-concept planning phase before striking any technologies from the list.

Info-Tech Insight

A technology’s exceptional value and immediate usability make it the best. A technology can be promising and compelling, but it is unsuitable unless it can bring immediate and exceptional value to your organization. Don’t get caught up in the hype.

Evaluate

Create an Action Plan to Exploit Disruptive Technologies

PHASE 3

Phase 3: Evaluate

Create an Action Plan to Exploit Disruptive Technologies

Activities:

Step 3.1: Create Process Maps
Step 3.2: Develop Proof of Concept Charter

This step involves the following participants:

• Core working group
• Infrastructure Management
• Working group leader
• CIO

Outcomes of this step:

• Business process maps before and after disruption
• Proof of concept charter
• Key performance indicators
• Estimation of required resources

Step 3.1

Create Process Maps

Activities:

1. Creating a problem canvas by identifying stakeholders, jobs, pains, and gains
2. Clarify the problem the proof-of-concept project will solve
3. Identify jobs and stakeholders
4. Outline how disruptive technology will solve the problem
5. Map business processes
6. Identify affected business units
7. Outline and map the business processes likely to be disrupted
8. Recognize how the new technology will impact business processes
9. Make the case: Outline why the new business process is superior to the old

This step involves the following participants:

• Working group leader
• CIO

Outcomes of this step:

• Business process maps before and after disruption

3.1 Create an action plan to exploit disruptive technologies

Clarify the problem in order to make the case. Fill in section 1.1 of Info-Tech’s Proof of Concept Template to clearly outline the problem each proof of concept is designed to solve.

Establish roles and responsibilities. Use section 1.2 of the template to outline the roles and responsibilities that fall to each member of the team. Ensure that clear lines of authority are delineated and that the list of stakeholders is exhaustive: include the executives whose input will be required for project approval, all the way to the technicians on the frontline responsible for implementing it.

Outline the solution to the problem. Demonstrate how each proof-of-concept project provides a solution to the problem outlined in section 1.1. Be sure to clarify what makes the particular technology under investigation a potential solution and record the results in section 1.3.

Use the Proof of Concept Project Template to track the information you gather throughout Phase 3.

3.1.A Creating a problem canvas by identifying stakeholders, jobs, pains, and gains

2 hours

Instructions:

1. On a whiteboard, draw the visual canvas supplied below.
2. Select your issue area, and list jobs, pains, and gains in the associated sections.
3. Record the pains, jobs, and gains in sections 1.1-1.3 of the Proof of Concept Template.

Gains

1. More revenue

2. Job security

3. ……

Jobs

1. Moving product

2. Per sale value

3. ……

Pains

1. Clunky website

2. Bad site navigation

3. ……

Input

• Inspiration
• Anonymous ideas

Output

• List of processes

Materials

• Chart paper and markers
• Pen and paper

Participants

• Core working group
• Visionaries

3.1.B Clarify the problem the proof-of-concept project will solve

2 hours

What is the problem?

• Every technology is designed to solve a problem faced by somebody somewhere. For each technology that your team has decided to move forward with, identify and clearly state the problem it would solve.
• A clear problem statement is a crucial part of a new technology’s business case. It is impossible to earn buy-in from the rest of the organization without demonstrating the necessity of a solution.
• Perfection is impossible to achieve: during the course of their work, everyone encounters pain points. Identify those pain points to arrive at the problem that needs to be solved.

Example:

List of pains addressed by conversational commerce:

• Search functions can be clunky and unresponsive.
• Corporate websites can be difficult to navigate.
• Customers are uncomfortable in unfamiliar internet environments.
• Customers do not like waiting in a long queue to engage with customer service representatives when they have concerns.

“If I were given one hour to solve a problem, I would spend 59 minutes defining the problem and one minute resolving it.”
– Albert Einstein

Input the results of this exercise into Section 1.1 of the Proof of Concept Template.

3.1.C Identify jobs and stakeholders

1 hour

Jobs

Job: Anything that the “customer” (the target of the solution) needs to get done but that is complicated by a pain.

Examples:
The job of the conversational commerce interface is to make selling products easier for the company.
From the customer perspective, the job of the conversational interface is to make the act of purchasing a product simpler and easier.

Stakeholders

Stakeholder: Anyone who is impacted by the new technology and who will end up using, approving, or implementing it.

Examples:
The executive is responsible for changing the company’s direction and approving investment in a new sales platform.
The IT team is responsible for implementing the new technology.
Marketing will be responsible for selling the change to customers.
Customers, the end users, will be the ones using the conversational commerce user interface.

Input the results of this exercise into Section 1.2 of the Proof of Concept Template.

Info-Tech Insight

Process deconstruction reveals strengths and weaknesses. Promising technology should improve stakeholders’ abilities to do jobs.

3.1.D Outline how disruptive technology will solve the problem

1 hour

How will the technology in question make jobs easier?

• How will the disruptive technology you have elected to move forward with create gains for the organization?
• First, identify the gains that are supposed to come with the project. Consider the benefits that the various stakeholders expect to derive from the jobs identified.
• Second, make note of how the technology in question facilitates the gains you have noted. Be sure to articulate the exclusive features of the new technology that make it an improvement over the current state.

Note: The goal of this exercise is to make the case for a particular technology. Sell it!

Expected Gain: Increase in sales.

Conversational Commerce’s Contribution: Customers are more likely to purchase products using interfaces they are comfortable with.

Expected Gain: Decrease in costs.

Conversational Commerce’s Contribution: Customers who are satisfied with the conversational interface are less likely to interact with live agents, saving labor costs.

Input the results of this exercise into Section 1.3 of the Proof of Concept Template.

3.1.E Map business processes

1 hour

Map the specific business processes the new technology will impact.

• Disruptive technologies will impact a wide variety of business processes.
• Map business processes to visualize what parts of your organization (departments, silos, divisions) will be impacted by the new technology, should it be adopted after the proof of concept.
• Identify how the disruption will take place.
• Demonstrate the value of each technology by including the results of the Disruptive Technology Value-Readiness and SWOT Analysis Tool with your process map.

Use the Proof of Concept Project Template to track the information you gather throughout Phase 3.

3.1.F Identify affected business units

30 minutes per technology

Disruptive technology will impact business units.

• Using the stakeholders identified earlier in the project, map each technology to the business units that will be affected.
• Make your list exhaustive. While some technologies will have a limited impact on the business as a whole, others will have ripple effects throughout the organization.
• Examine affected units at all scales: How will the technology impact operations at the team level? The department level? The division level?

“The disruption is not just in the technology. Sometimes a good business model can be the disruptor.”
– Jason Hong, Associate Professor, Carnegie Mellon

Example:

• Customer service teams: Conversational commerce will replace some of the duties of the customer service representative. They will have to reorganize to account for this development.
• IT department: The IT department will be responsible for building/maintaining the conversational interface (or, more likely, they will be responsible for managing the contract with the vendor).
• Sales analytics: New data from customers in natural language might provide a unique opportunity for the analytics team to develop new initiatives to drive sales growth.

Input the results of this exercise into Section 2.1 of the Proof of Concept Template.

3.1.G Outline and map the business processes likely to be disrupted

15 minutes per technology

Leverage the insights of the diverse working group.

• Processes are designed to transform inputs into outputs. All business activities can be mapped into processes.
• A process map illustrates the sequence of actions and decisions that transform an input into an output.
• Effective mapping gives managers an “aerial” view of the company’s processes, making it easier to identify inefficiencies, reduce waste, and ultimately, streamline operations.
• To identify business processes, have group members familiar with the affected business units identify how jobs are typically accomplished within those units.

“To truly understand a business process, we need information from both the top-down and bottom-up points of view. Informants higher in the organizational hierarchy with a strategic focus are less likely to know process details or problems. But they might advocate and clearly articulate an end-to-end, customer-oriented philosophy that describes the process in an idealized form. Conversely, the salespeople, customer service representatives, order processors, shipping clerks, and others who actually carry out the processes will be experts about the processes, their associated documents, and problems or exception cases they encounter.”
– Robert J. Glushko, Professor at UC Berkeley and Tim McGrath, Business Consultant

Info-Tech Insight

Opinions gathered from a group that reflect the process in question are far more likely to align with your organization’s reality. If you have any questions about a particular process, do not be afraid to go outside of the working group to ask someone who might know.

3.1.G Outline and map the business processes likely to be disrupted (continued)

15 minutes per technology

Create a simple diagram of identified processes.

• Use different shapes to identify different points in the process.
• Rectangles represent actions, diamonds represent decisions.
• On a whiteboard, map out the actions and decisions that take place to transform an input into an output.
• Input the result into section 2.2 of the Proof of Concept Template.

Source: Edraw Visualization Solutions

Example: simplified process map

1. User: visits company website
2. User: engages search function or browses links
3. User: selects and purchases product from a menu
4. Company: ships product to customer

3.1.H Recognize how the new technology will impact business processes

15 minutes per technology

Using the information gleaned from the previous activities, develop a new process map that takes the new technology into account.

Identify the new actions or decisions that the new technology will affect.

User: selects and purchases product from a menu; Company: ships product to customer; Company: ships product to customer">

Info-Tech Insight

It’s ok to fail! The only way to know you’re getting close to the “knee of curve" is from multiple failed PoC tests. The more PoC options you have, the more likely it will be that you will have two to three successful results.

3.1.I Make the case: Outline why the new business process is superior to the old

15 minutes per technology

Articulate the main benefits of the new process.

• Using the revised process map, make the case for each new action.
• Questions to consider: How does the new technology relieve end-user/customer pains? How does the new technology contribute to the streamlining of the business process? Who will benefit from the new action? What are the implications of those benefits?
• Record the results of this exercise in section 2.4 of the Proof of Concept Template.

Info-Tech Insight

If you cannot articulate how a new technology will benefit a business process, reconsider moving forward with the proof-of-concept project.

Phase 3: Evaluate

Create an Action Plan to Exploit Disruptive Technologies

Activities:

Step 3.1: Create Process Maps
Step 3.2: Develop Proof of Concept Charter

Develop Proof of Concept Charter

This step involves the following participants:

• Core working group
• Infrastructure Management
• Working group leader
• CIO

Outcomes of this step:

• Business process maps before and after disruption
• Proof of concept charter
• Key performance indicators
• Estimation of required resources

Step 3.2

Develop Proof of Concept Charter

Activities:

1. Use SMART success metrics to define your objectives
2. Develop key performance indicators (KPIs)
3. Identify key success factors for the project
4. Outline the project’s scope
5. Identify the structure of the team responsible for the proof-of-concept project
6. Estimate the resources required by the project
7. Be aware of common IT project concerns
8. Communicate your working group’s findings and successes to a wide audience
9. Hand off the completed proof-of-concept project plan
10. Disruption is constant: Repeat the evaluation process regularly to protect the business

This step involves the following participants:

• Working group leader
• CIO

Outcomes of this step:

• Proof of concept charter
• Key performance indicators
• Estimation of required resources

3.2 Develop a proof of concept charter

Keep your proof of concept on track by defining five key dimensions.

1. Objective: Giving an overview of the planned proof of concept will help to focus and clarify the rest of this section. What must the proof of concept achieve? Objectives should be: specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and time bound. Outline and track key performance indicators.
2. Key Success Factors: These are conditions that will positively impact the proof of concept’s success.
3. Scope: High-level statement of scope. More specifically, state what is in scope and what is out of scope.
4. Project Team: Identify the team’s structure, e.g. sponsors, subject-matter experts.
5. Resource Estimation: Identify what resources (time, materials, space, tools, expertise, etc.) will be needed to build and socialize your prototype. How will they be secured?

Input the results of this exercise into Section 3.0 of the Proof of Concept Template.

3.2.A Use SMART success metrics to define your objectives

Examples:

1. Increase in sales by $40,000 per month by the end of next quarter.
2. Immediate increase in web traffic by 600 unique page views per day.
3. Number of pilots approved per year.
4. Number of successfully deployed solutions per year.

Input the results of this exercise into Section 3.0 of the Proof of Concept Template.

3.2.B Develop key performance indicators (KPIs)

30 minutes per technology

Key performance indicators allow for rigorous analysis, which generates insight into utilization by platform and consumption by business activity.

• Use the process improvements identified in step 3.1 to brainstorm metrics that indicate when process improvement is actually taking place.
• Have members of the group pitch KPIs; the facilitator should record each suggestion on a whiteboard.
• Make sure to have everyone justify the inclusion of each metric: How does it relate to the improvement that the proof of concept project is intended to drive? How does it relate to the overall goals of the business?
• Include a list of KPIs, along with a description and a target (ensuring that it aligns with SMART metrics) in section 3.1 of the Proof of Concept Template.

“An estimated 70% of performance measurement systems fail after implementation. Carefully select your KPIs and avoid this trap!”
Source: Collins et al. 2016

Input the results of this exercise into Section 3.1 of the Proof of Concept Template.

3.2.C Identify key success factors for the project

30 minutes per technology

Effective project management involves optimizing four key success factors (Clarke, 1999)

• Communication: Communicate the expected changes to stakeholders, making sure that everyone who needs to know does know. Example: Make sure customer service representatives know their duties will be impacted by the conversational UI well before the proof-of-concept project begins.
• Clarity: All involved in the project should be apprised of what the project is intended to accomplish and what the project is not intended to accomplish. Example: The conversational commerce project is not intended to be rolled out to the entire customer base all at once; it is not intended to disrupt normal online sales.
• Compartmentalization: The working group should suggest some ways that the project can be broken down to facilitate its effective implementation. Example: Sales provides details of customers who might be amenable to a trial, IT secures a vendor, customer service writes a script.
• Flexibility: The working group’s final output should not be treated as gospel. Ensure that the document can be altered to account for unexpected events. Example: The conversational commerce platform might drive sales of a particular product more than others, necessitating adjustments at the warehouse and shipping level.

Input the results of this exercise into Section 3.0 of the Proof of Concept Template.

3.2.D Outline the project’s scope

10 minutes per technology

Create a high-level outline of the project’s scope.

• Questions to consider: Broadly speaking, what are the project’s goals? What is the desired future state? Where in the company will the project be rolled out? What are some of the company’s goals that the project is not designed to cover?
• Be sure to avoid scope creep! Remember: The goal of the proof-of-concept project is to produce a minimum case for viability in a carefully defined area. Reserve a detailed accounting of costs and benefits for the post-proof-of-concept stage.
• Example: The conversational user interface will only be rolled out in an e-commerce setting. Other business units (HR, for example) are beyond the scope of this particular project.

“Although scope creep is not the only nemesis a project can have, it does tend to have the farthest reach. Without a properly defined project and/or allowing numerous changes along the way, a project can easily go over budget, miss the deadline, and wreak havoc on project success.”
– University Alliance, Villanova University

Input the results of this exercise into Section 3.0 of the Proof of Concept Template.

3.2.E Identify the structure of the team responsible for the proof-of-concept project

10 minutes per technology

Brainstorm who will be involved in project implementation.

• Refer back to the list of stakeholders identified in 3.1.a. Which stakeholders should be involved in implementing the proof-of-concept plan?
• What business units do they represent?
• Who should be accountable for the project? At a high level, sketch the roles of each of the participants. Who will be responsible for doing the work? Who will approve it? Who needs to be informed at every stage? Who are the company’s internal subject matter experts?

Example

Input the results of this exercise into Section 3.0 of the Proof of Concept Template.

3.2.F Estimate the resources required by the project

10 minutes per technology

Time and Money

• Recall: Costs can be operational, capital, or opportunity.
• Revisit the Disruptive Technology Value-Readiness and SWOT Analysis Tool. Record the capital and operational expenses expected to be associated with each technology, and add detail where possible (use exact figures from particular vendors instead of percentages).
• Write the names and titles of each expected participant in the project on a whiteboard. Next to each name, write the number of hours they are expected to devote to the project and include a rough estimate of the cost of their participation to the company. Use full-time employee equivalent (FTE measures) as a base.
• Outline how other necessary resources (space, tools, expertise, etc.) will be secured.

Example: Conversational Commerce

• OpEx: $149/month + 2.9¢/transaction* (2,000 estimated transactions)
• CapEx: $0!
• IT Manager: 5 hours at $100/hour
• IT Technician: 40 hours at $45/hour
• CMO: 1 hour at $300/hour
• Customer Service Representative: 10 hours at $35/hour
• *Estimated total cost for a one-month proof-of-concept project: $3,157

*This number is a sample taken from the vendor Rhombus

Input the results of this exercise into Section 3.0 of the Proof of Concept Template.

3.2.G Be aware of common IT project concerns

Of projects that did not meet business expectations or were cancelled, how significant were the following issues?

This survey data did not specifically address innovation projects.

• Disruptive technology projects will be under increased scrutiny in comparison to other projects.
• Be sure to meet deadlines and stay within budget.
• Be cognizant that your projects can go out of scope, and there will be projects that may have to be cancelled due to low quality. Remember: Even a failed test is a learning opportunity!

Info-Tech’s CIO-CEO Alignment Survey, N=225

Organization size was determined by the number of IT employees within the organization

Small = 10 or fewer IT staff, medium = 11 to 25 IT staff, and large/enterprise = 26 or greater IT staff

3.2.H Communicate your working group’s findings and successes to a wide audience

Advertise the group’s successes and help prevent airline magazine syndrome from occurring.

• Share your group’s results internally:
  • Run your own analysis by senior management and then share it across the organization.
  • Maintain a list of technologies that the working group has analyzed and solicit feedback from the wider organization.
  • Post summaries of the technologies in a publicly available repository. The C-suite may not read it right away, but it will be easy to provide when they ask.
  • If senior management has declined to proceed with a certain technology, avoid wasting time and resources on it. However, include notes about why the technology was rejected.
• These postings will also act as an advertisement for the group. Use the garnered interest to attract visionaries for the next cycle.
• These postings will help to reiterate the innovative value of the IT department and help bring you to the decision-making table.

“Some CIOs will have to battle the bias that they belong in the back office and shouldn’t be included in product architecture planning. CIOs must ‘sell’ IT’s strength in information architecture.”
– Chris Curran, Chief Technologist, PwC (Curran, 2014)

Info-Tech Insight

Cast a wide net. By sharing your results with as many people as possible within your organization, you’ll not only attract more attention to your working group, but you will also get more feedback and ideas.

3.2.I Hand off the completed proof-of-concept project plan

The proof of concept template is filled out – now what?

• The core working group is responsible for producing a vision of the future and outlining new technology’s disruptive potential. The actual implementation of the proof of concept (purchasing the hardware, negotiating the SLA with the vendor) is beyond the working group’s responsibilities.
• If the proof of concept goes ahead, the facilitator should block some time to evaluate the completed project against the key performance indicators identified in the initial plan.
• A cure for airline magazine syndrome: Be prepared when executives ask about new technology. Present them with the results of the shortlist analysis and the proof-of-concept plan. A clear accounting of the value, readiness, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats posed by each technology, along with its impact on business processes, is an invaluable weapon against poor technology choices.

Use section 3.2.b to identify the decision-making stakeholder who has the most to gain from a successful proof-of-concept project. Self-interest is a powerful motivator – the project is more likely to succeed in the hands of a passionate champion.

Info-Tech Insight

Set a date for the first meeting of the new iteration of the disruptive technology working group before the last meeting is done. Don’t risk pushing it back indefinitely.

3.2.J Hand off the completed proof-of-concept project plan

Record the results of the proof of concept. Keep track of what worked and what didn’t.

Repeat the process regularly.

• Finalize the proof of concept template, but don’t stop there: Keep your ear to the ground; follow tech developments using the sources identified in step 1.2.
• Continue expanding the potential longlist with independent research: Be prepared to expand your longlist. Remember, the more technologies you have on the longlist, the more potential airline magazine syndrome cures you have access to.
• Have the results of the previous session’s proof of concept plan on hand: At the start of each new iteration, conduct a review. What technologies were successful beyond the proof of concept phase? Which parts of the process worked? Which parts did not? How could they be improved?

Info-Tech Insight

The key is in anticipation. This is not a one-and-done exercise. Technology innovation operates at a faster pace than ever before, well below the Moores Law "18 month" timeline as an example. Success is in making EDIT a repeatable process.

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Research contributors and experts

Nitin Babel, Co-Founder, niki.ai

Nitin Babel, MSc, co-created conversational commerce platform niki.ai in early 2015. Since then, the technology has been featured on the front page of the Economic Times, and has secured the backing of Ratan Tata, former chairman of the Tata Group, one of the largest companies in the world.

Mark Hubbard, Senior Vice President, FirstOnSite

Mark is the SVP for Information Technology in Canada with FirstOnSite, a full service disaster recovery and property restoration company. Mark has over 25 years of technology leadership guiding global organizations through the development of strategic and tactical plans to strengthen their technology platforms and implement business aligned technology strategies.

Chris Green, Enterprise Architect, Boston Private
Chris is an IT architect with over 15 years’ experience designing, building, and implementing solutions. He is a results-driven leader and contributor, skilled in a broad set of methods, tools, and platforms. He is experienced with mobile, web, enterprise application integration, business process, and data design.

Andrew Kope, Head of Data Analytics
Big Blue Bubble
Andrew Kope, MSc, oversees a team that develops and maintains a user acquisition tracking solution and a real-time metrics dashboard. He also provides actionable recommendations to the executive leadership of Big Blue Bubble – one of Canada’s largest independent mobile game development studios.

Jason Hong, Associate Professor, School of Computer Science, Human-Computer Interaction Institute, Carnegie Mellon University

Jason Hong is a member of the faculty at Carnegie Mellon’s School of Computer Science. His research focus lies at the intersection of human-computer interaction, privacy and security, and systems. He is a New America National Cyber Security Fellow (2015-2017) and is widely published in academic and industry journals.

Tim Lalonde, Vice President, Mid-Range

Tim Lalonde is the VP of Technical Operations at Mid-Range. He works with leading-edge companies to be more competitive and effective in their industries. He specializes in developing business roadmaps leveraging technology that create and support change from within — with a focus on business process re-engineering, architecture and design, business case development and problem-solving. With over 30 years of experience in IT, Tim’s guiding principle remains simple: See a problem, fix a problem.

Jon Mavor, Co-Founder and CTO, Envelop VR
Jon Mavor is a programmer and entrepreneur, whose past work includes writing the graphics engine for the PC game Total Annihilation. As Chief Technology Officer of Envelop VR, a virtual reality start-up focused on software for the enterprise, Jon has overseen the launch of Envelop for Windows’s first public beta.

Dan Pitt, President, Palo Alto Innovation Advisors
Dan Pitt is a network architect who has extensive experience in both the academy and industry. Over the course of his career, Dan has served as Executive Director of the Open Networking Foundation, Dean of Engineering at Santa Clara University, Vice President of Technology and Academic Partnerships at Nortel, Vice President of the Architecture Lab at Bay Networks, and, currently, as President of Palo Alto Innovation Advisors, where he advises and serves as an executive for technology start-ups in the Palo Alto area and around the world.

Courtney Smith, Co-Founder, Executive Creative Director
PureMatter
Courtney Smith is an accomplished creative strategist, storyteller, writer, and designer. Under her leadership, PureMatter has earned hundreds of creative awards and been featured in the PRINT International Design Annual. Courtney has juried over 30 creative competitions, including Creativity International. She is an invited member of the Academy of Interactive and Visual Arts.

Emmanuel Tsekleves, Senior Lecturer in Design Interactions, University of Lancaster
Dr. Emmanuel Tsekleves is a senior lecturer and writer based out of the United Kingdom. Emmanuel designs interactions between people, places, and products by forging creative design methods along with digital technology. His design-led research in the areas of health, ageing, well-being, and defence has generated public interest and attracted media attention by the national press, such as the Daily Mail, Daily Mirror, The Times, the Daily Mail, Discovery News, and several other international online media outlets.

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