Published December 15, 2021

By Mark Anderson

As members are aware, we recently released our predictions for 2022 at our virtual annual Predictions event; you can view that recorded session here, as a benefit of membership.

Because we're sharing the complete recorded session - together with discussions and Q&A - I have refrained from sending out a transcript or converting all of my thoughts on the economic, technological, and country landscapes upon which these Top Ten Predictions are based.

Rather, I've outlined a greater number of predictions in all of these areas, in the hopes that they are both clear and more numerous - and therefore, of greater use to our members.

As in 2020's Predictions recap, the idea here is to move from a detail-driven, very long conversation to getting the main points across and allowing enough intellectual breathing room for members to stop often, digest, make inner comments and arguments, compare with their own ideas of what's coming, and come to useful conclusions.

Here are the landscapes, followed by the Top Ten Predictions for the year ahead.

Theme for 2022: Righting the Ship

Sailing to Byzantium

"Once out of nature I shall never take
My bodily form from any natural thing,
But such a form as Grecian goldsmiths make
Of hammered gold and gold enamelling
To keep a drowsy Emperor awake;
Or set upon a golden bough to sing
To lords and ladies of Byzantium
Of what is past, or passing, or to come."

- W.B. Yeats, 1933

Today, we have to understand and include China's role in almost everything we make and do.

The Economic Landscape

[Redacted – not relevant to our readership]

The Technology Landscape

  1. Chips Are Everything: Fabs go to 2nm. New AI-driven designs take hold. More fabs for more types. Chip investment moves toward $400B worldwide. Major Asian chip firms escape the gravity of their parent countries:
    1. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC) expands to Japan, the EU, and the US.
    2. Samsung leaves China, expands to the US and elsewhere.
    3. Intel, the throwback: Expands in China, the US, the EU. Hey, Pat - stop betting on China. It's so, well, traitorous. This really is the 1930s all over again. Just ask the Oz defense chief.
    4. NVIDIA will lose its ARM battle and go after another target.
    5. Qualcomm: Making good moves beyond the phone, if the new CEO can stick the landing. Good luck, because you'll need it.
  2. The Global Tech Schism: China will fail to install a second world of its own technical standards but will not stop trying.
  3. Solar and Wind: Offshore wind farms and land-based solar farms, both larger than ever built until now, will help accelerate what seemed impossible yesterday to just being too slow and hard tomorrow.
  4. Healthcare: The Most Dramatic Innovation Sector:
    1. AI and other advanced mathematics (Pattern Discovery) will lead to major advances in both diagnostics and therapeutics. The unsolvable will increasingly be solvable, and the untreatable, treatable.
    2. Covid continues as a now-permanent social context, with the ongoing appearance of major variants displaying dozens of sudden mutations, often in the spike area. We continue to be unable to have public discussions regarding whether any of these variants are human-made (GoF) and/or intentionally released.
    3. Non-invasive, real-time diagnostic tools, powered by advanced mathematics, will begin a multi-decadal march toward how we do medicine.

Graded Accuracy on Past Predictions

[See "On Our Radar" below for full 2021 Predictions]

Past Predictions

2006-2020 Average = 95.49%

Est. 2021 Year Score = 95%

Total Average since 2005, including 2021 Predictions = 95.46%

[Math: (95.49 x 15 + 95)/16 = 95.46%]

The Top Ten Predictions for 2022

  1. Battery technology responds to the most intense financial and innovation pressures in tech history, leading to radical improvements in both energy density and safety. New materials, solid-state, cheaper, faster, better. Huge fortunes are bet, lost, and made.
  2. Rapid, accurate Covid detection will be recognized as the necessary complement to vaccination, with both being understood as required in order to avoid continuing health and economic damage. New math and Pattern Discovery will provide the detection improvements needed to keep the world going on both fronts.
  3. Everyone makes chips, and chips are for everyone. We leave the era of chip monopolies and rapidly move into a completely new era of technological innovation at the most basic, often commercial, levels. Forget Intel; welcome Ford and GM. Forget PCs, servers, and smartphones and welcome Smart Everything.
  4. We accept the world of Absolute Insecurity, from IoT and home networks to ad tracking, the surveillance state, and completely invasive vendor behavior. While security companies remain prosperous, no one and nothing is trusted to be secure. This has a deep psychological effect on citizens, customers, and partners, in addition to the mammoth hidden tax put onto people, companies, and transactions by this forever-condition of theft and loss.
  5. China becomes a pariah state, at last seen for what it really is and really does, to its own people and to others. Disengagement by the free world moves from a so-called impossibility two years ago to staged inevitability for all who can protect themselves.
  6. SpaceX turns out to be well-named, since it now owns the commercial-space space. No one else is even close, from Virgin to NASA to Boeing and the Launch Alliance. Outside the Earth's atmosphere, Elon is an emperor.
  7. Consumer spending goes up in the West, as too many years in Covid isolation drives enhanced consumption, particularly of luxury items, for oneself. This category is led by cars, cars, cars, and cars, with lots of expensive art, rare scotch, and other collectibles close behind as the category of Alternative Assets investment explodes, hedging against inflation.
  8. The not-so-well-hidden internal contraction and/or collapse of China's domestic economic machine accelerates, with "tells" moving beyond property development and related markets and into an increasing number of sectors, with higher bankruptcy rates and more desperate (if secret) corporate bailouts by the CCP. There are no private companies now in China. And new dictator-for-life Xi, although worshipped by children brainwashed on Xi Thought, is no longer the popular guy he so recently was.
  9. The climate struggle is joined. Faced with certain damage, agreed science, and the threat of new mega events - and encouraged by international consensus - the world seriously begins the exciting and painful move away from generations of terracide. Things go faster than predicted only a year ago.
  10. The world economic war for a middle class becomes a defining, and now public, fight and characterizes a policy pivot away from globalism and the ownership class and toward the neglected goals of reshoring manufacturing, restoring jobs, and increasing middle-class incomes.

I hope that our members find these landscapes and predictions useful in the coming year, and that you, your families, and your companies benefit from their application.

Your comments are always welcome.

Sincerely,

Mark Anderson


Quotes of the Week

"The world today is facing exactly the same challenges we faced in 1939. And, as then, our greatest enemies are not only the other side, but the global corporations that have traded allegiance to country and principles for greed. Back then, it was Ford and IBM working with Hitler. Today, it is Apple, Intel, and Boeing, working with the CCP, who ignore the concentration camps and preparations for war in and by China, hoping for money in return." - Mark Anderson and Evan Anderson, INVNT/IP, November 2018

"Apple CEO Tim Cook 'secretly' signed an agreement worth more than $275B with Chinese officials, promising that Apple would help to develop China's economy and technological capabilities. [. . .] The [five-year] agreement included a pledge from Apple to help Chinese manufacturers develop 'the most advanced manufacturing technologies,' 'support the training of high-quality Chinese talents,' use more components from Chinese suppliers, sign deals with Chinese software firms, collaborate with research in Chinese universities, and directly invest in Chinese tech companies, as well as assistance with around a dozen Chinese government causes - [automatically extending through 2022; investing] billions of dollars more on new retail stores, research and development facilities, and renewable energy projects.'" - The Information, 12/7/21

"Technological innovation has become the main battleground of the global playing field, and competition for tech dominance will grow unprecedentedly fierce." - Xi Jinping, quoted by Eric Schmidt and Graham Allison in the Wall Street Journal last week

"Unless the U.S. can organize a national response analogous to the mobilization that created the technologies that won World War II, China could soon dominate the technologies of the future and the opportunities they will create." - Eric Schmidt and Graham Allison; ibid.

"Both the prime minister and I have spoken about how the current times have echos of the 1930s. The world would be foolish to repeat the mistakes of the 1930s." - Australian Defence Minister Peter Dutton, addressing the National Press Club, 11/25/21; a must-see on YouTube.


On Our Radar

TOP TEN PREDICTIONS FOR 2021

Grades from last year:

  1. Re: 5G: The US military and the FCC solve the country's biggest broadband bottleneck, by finding a new way to cooperate on the sale and use of 5G spectrum.

10 pts.

  1. The Biden administration is immediately (and reluctantly) pulled into creating an international technology-based security alliance. Biden's lack of tech chops (and interest) becomes painfully obvious.

10 pts.

All true, with plenty of proof points and more in the making, from chips to military tech worldwide.

  1. We see a rush into private social networks, as election fatigue and Zuck anti-privacy ethics achieve new lows. A new business ecosystem of communities crossed with platforms is born.

10 pts.

From Zuck hatred to record EU fines for Google, countries and people are fed up and either moving out completely or finding safer places to talk.

  1. A general and well-founded mistrust of AI grows, even as new AI applications explode in number. We learn all about what can go wrong with AI, not just in data bias, but also in mathematical fails that lead to harm on a business scale. AI accountability becomes a career choice.

10 pts.

Data bias is now a truism around the world, and few trust AI today in any social settings.

  1. Healthcare finally moves beyond today's "standard of care" practices (at best, a dangerous legal foil) to third- wave AI in more "evidence-based" models. This begins a turn toward massive improvement in medical outcomes. What's next? "Pattern-based healthcare."

10 pts.

Some of the largest deals in healthcare (Grail repurchase, etc.) are based on finding patterns in liquid biopsies, oncology detection, and diagnostics and drug discovery across virtually all major categories and firms.

  1. Vaccinations for Covid change everything, faster than the epidemiologists and economists expected. Reasons include increased individual confidence in shopping, entertainment, and working, as opposed to the medical establishment goal of vaccine-induced herd immunity. This leads to a quicker rate of economic return and creates new sector opportunities for investors who are hunting for strong firms with Covid-hammered stocks, such as:
    1. Aerospace (Boeing)
    2. Air Carriers (Southwest, Alaska Airlines)
    3. Hospitality (Marriott)
    4. Entertainment (AMC, owners of live events)

7 pts.

While there now are nations declaring herd immunity, the US, for purely political reasons, is certainly not one. At the same time, the continued emergence of high-mutation variants - whatever their source - has led to continued spikes and shutdowns worldwide. This prediction did come true by midsummer, with concomitant equity and economic benefits; but we now are investigating the origins of the new high-mutation variants. If these are being released intentionally, all bets are off.

  1. Autonomous AI: These vehicles accelerate their move into the mainstream:
    1. Tesla's AI just works better - much better - than average humans. And Autonomous AI works better with electric vehicles.
    2. Trucks and Cargo Carriers provide platforms for yet quicker adoption; tougher range issues, but stronger financial incentives.
    3. Cars in safer "racetrack" configurations proliferate worldwide, becoming well-accepted long before open-road permissions.
    4. Drones expand but continue to find limited commercial use; Jeff Bezos was right.
    5. Semi-autonomous weapons of all kinds are developed behind the scenes, with the trigger event still held, in theory, by humans.

10 pts.

Yes, it all happened, and continues to happen, from commercial to military.

  1. Electric transport goes mainstream.
    1. Virtually all major carmakers ship electric cars, with step-function increases in market acceptance by consumers. This marks "the most important pivot in transport since the Internal Combustion Engine took over from steam." The US (in innovation) and China (in subsidized programs) lead the parade, with Germany, the EU, and Japan following far behind.
    2. The first electric planes have successful commercial pilot projects.

10 pts.

All true, from Orlando to Germany to China and the US.

  1. Starlink leads the way to a new world of omnipresent bandwidth, allowing the other half of the human population access to the Net and eventually making Elon Musk the richest person on Earth, and beyond it.

10 pts.

That worked, at $300B net worth and counting.

  1. XAI becomes a reality. Companies move past the largest problem in AI today, that of the "black box." Explainable AI helps the EU and other governments enforce fairness in understandable AI outcomes. This illustrates the critical importance of "the power of knowing why" regarding complex solutions that were previously unavailable in business and science.

8 pts.

There are a number of firms that now claim to have some form of XAI, although not according to the most rigorous definitions. On the other hand, Pattern Computer (disclosure: of which I am CEO) has been serving clients this year, via our Iceland module, with fully attributable and mathematically comprehensible explanations of AI Pattern Discoveries and their correlations. Technically, this has been achieved, but much more work is needed.

Graded Accuracy on Past Predictions

2006-2020 Average = 95.49%

Est. 2021 Year Score = 95%

Total Average since 2005, including 2021 Predictions = 95.46%

[Math: (95.49 x 15 + 95)/16 = 95.46%]


Ethermail

Re: THE TOP TEN PREDICTIONS EVENT FOR 2022

Dear Mark, Berit, and Evan,

Well, I wish you were my family because I am always overwhelmed with your dazzling intellects and the amazing things that come out of your heads! Congrats on the best Predictions ever! I predict you will bat 98% this year, Mark! Your ability to look across the globe, across industries, across economies, and across populations is simply a gift.

This is more than a methodology, it is what makes you a unique person on this planet! I am so very, very honored to know you all!

Thank you for including me! Happy Holidays!

Love,

Jody

P.S. we need to talk more about misinformation / disinformation.

Jody R. Westby, Esq.
CEO, Global Cyber Risk LLC
Adjunct Professor, Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Computer Science
Washington, DC
www.globalcyberrisk.com

Mark,

Thanks [for the Predictions event]! Gets better and better!

Questions:

1. This question (put into chat near the end) didn't get asked, but I would like to know: Are you in favor of the "republic and 'vote if you want to' model," or of the Australian "voting as a mandate" model? Why?

2. ALSO: I have made substantial progress toward a new model of going beyond 20th c. education to "Empowerment."

• 5 minute online book: https://bit.ly/empowerment-today

• Website: https://ministry-of-eai.org

• Video: EMPOWERMENT: The New Journey for the World's Young People: 30 min video

Not technology per se, but clearly related.

Worth a FiRe slot?

Best,

Marc Prensky

Author and Keynote Speaker
Current books & topics:
Digital Natives Rising
EMPOWERED! Reframing "Growing Up Human" for a New Age
EMPOWERMENT TODAY!
marcprensky.com| marcprenskyarchive.com | global-future-education.org | twobillionkids.world | ministry-of-EAI.org
[Palo Alto, CA]

Marc,

I would favor a voluntary voting republic, which I believe is what the founders decided after looking around the world at all of the other constitutional models. I think the current misstatements about the US being a pure democracy are historically inaccurate and amplify the horrible risks inherent in a free-speech country with an unregulated internet, available to all of its miscreants (FB) and enemies (Russia, China).

Personally, I'd like to see us keep free speech and sharply constrain the net.

Mark Anderson

Mark,

Really appreciated the "predictions" session yesterday.

Good job --THANK YOU.

Your comments on China were so accurate -- I wish many more colleagues understood the challenges as clearly.

And, your emphasis on the Founders' plan for a REPUBLIC was so well stated. But, we seem to have lost that idea, unfortunately.

Happy Christmas,

Bill

William C. Harris

[President & CEO
Science Foundation Arizona
Arizona STEM Network
Phoenix, AZ]


Your comments are always welcome.

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Mark Anderson

Research Fellow

Mark Anderson writes the most accurate predictive reports covering the computing and communication industries. His weekly Trends and Predictions posts cover must-have information for strategy development and business technology planning, and are followed by technology executives and investors worldwide including Bill Gates, Paul Jacobs, Michael Dell and more.

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